以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者金融量化组 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 文 | 贾瑞斌 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 中秋降至，市场即将迎来长达8天的休市期。本公众号已对节假日期间应持仓或持币做过相关指引，简洁来说，对于持仓过节的投资 者来说，风险和机遇并存。除了通过资产标的持仓参与市场外，可以用期权这个相对占用资金小，风险可控的方式来参与。本文主 要基于以往思路，聚焦分析国庆假期中的期权组合的优劣（全部采用收盘作为计算依据），本文不构成投资建议。 01 摘要 、 当前市场各板块呈现差异化特征：原油和LPG波动率扩张，贵金属走势与宏观背离且隐含波动率高企，工业金属及新能源金属分化明 显，农产品内部结构差异显著。节前上需针对性布局，能源化工侧重波动率交易，贵金属避免卖权风险，工业金属分波动放大与弱势品 种施策，农产品关注油脂类看空波动率机会及菜粕特殊操作。国庆前后需聚焦隐含波动率、偏度结构等核心维度，高波动品种以价差组 合控风险，低波动品种控仓收权利金，同时跟踪宏观与政策动态应对风险。 02 各品种市场概况 首先，我们对过去三年国庆节前后 ...

Core Insights - The article narrates the dramatic trading journey of Guan Fujun, who transitioned from a novice trader to a successful one, experiencing multiple failures and recoveries in the futures market [2][6][10] Group 1: Trading Journey - Guan Fujun began his trading career in 1999 with an initial capital of 40,000 yuan, making his first trade by shorting rubber, which led to his first margin call and a significant loss [2][5] - Despite facing four major bankruptcies, including a severe loss in 2003 when he shorted soybean meal, Guan continued to pursue trading, driven by a fascination with the market [5][6] - In 2004, after a period of research and learning, he successfully turned 5,000 yuan into 25 million yuan by adhering to a strategy based on weekly trends [6][9] Group 2: Trading Philosophy - Guan's trading philosophy is centered around three key principles: 1. Weekly theory, which helps filter out short-term noise and reflects medium-term trends [9] 2. Risk control, emphasizing the importance of stop-loss orders to protect overall capital [9] 3. Integration of knowledge and action, ensuring that long-term training leads to instinctive responses in trading [10] Group 3: Challenges and Setbacks - Guan faced significant setbacks, including a disastrous shift to short-term trading that resulted in substantial losses during the cotton market surge in 2010 and 2011 [7][8] - His gambling habits led to a depletion of his wealth, with his account dwindling to a few thousand yuan at one point [8] Group 4: Recovery and Success - After a period of reflection and recovery, Guan re-entered the market with 13.8 million yuan and achieved remarkable returns, including a 70-fold increase from 3.5 million yuan to 294 million yuan between August 2021 and February 2022 [8][9]