Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for investors to adopt a cautious approach during the upcoming National Day holiday, highlighting the coexistence of risks and opportunities in the market. It suggests utilizing options as a way to manage risk while participating in the market, particularly focusing on the advantages and disadvantages of options combinations during the holiday period [4]. Market Overview - The current market exhibits differentiated characteristics across various sectors, with notable volatility in crude oil and LPG, while precious metals show a divergence from macroeconomic trends. Industrial metals and new energy metals are experiencing significant differentiation, and agricultural products display marked internal structural differences. Investors are advised to strategically position themselves before the holiday, focusing on volatility trading in energy and chemicals, avoiding selling risks in precious metals, and monitoring macroeconomic and policy dynamics [5][6]. Historical Volatility Analysis - An analysis of the futures market over the past three years reveals a trend of converging volatility, with most futures showing fluctuations below 3%. This reflects heightened risk control requirements from institutional investors and the prevalence of algorithmic trading, which is altering traditional seasonal volatility patterns. The holiday effect is shifting from unilateral volatility to structural opportunities, necessitating more sophisticated selection and position management by investors [5][6]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Energy and Chemicals**: This sector shows the strongest volatility elasticity, with crude oil futures experiencing significant increases before the holidays in both 2022 and 2024. LPG and downstream chemicals follow suit. Investors are encouraged to focus on volatility trading opportunities, utilizing directional call options or spread combinations to optimize holding costs [6][26]. - **Precious Metals**: The sector is characterized by a divergence from macro indicators, with gold prices remaining resilient despite rising U.S. Treasury yields and a strong dollar. The implied volatility for precious metals has surged above the 80th percentile historically, indicating heightened market awareness of upward risks. Investors are advised to carefully assess holding risks and avoid maintaining naked short positions before major macro events [17][26]. - **Industrial and New Energy Metals**: This sector shows clear differentiation, with copper, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon experiencing significant volatility. The implied volatility for these commodities is high, suggesting that buying call combinations may be costly. Investors are recommended to use vertical spreads to control costs while seeking upward gains, while weaker commodities may benefit from time decay strategies [19][26]. - **Agricultural Products**: The agricultural sector displays structural differences, with oilseed products influenced by seasonal factors and policy impacts. The implied volatility for oilseed options is currently declining, while the volatility for meal products is on the rise. Investors are advised to deploy short volatility strategies flexibly before the holiday and to be cautious with large positions in meal products due to external policy influences [22][27]. Trading Strategy Recommendations - Investors should focus on two key dimensions for options trading around the National Day holiday: the levels of implied and actual volatility, and the trends in skew structure. For high-volatility products, a spread-based trading approach is recommended to manage risk exposure effectively, while for low-volatility products, careful position management and monitoring of macroeconomic data are essential [23][26].

Core Insights - The article narrates the dramatic trading journey of Guan Fujun, who transitioned from a novice trader to a successful one, experiencing multiple failures and recoveries in the futures market [2][6][10] Group 1: Trading Journey - Guan Fujun began his trading career in 1999 with an initial capital of 40,000 yuan, making his first trade by shorting rubber, which led to his first margin call and a significant loss [2][5] - Despite facing four major bankruptcies, including a severe loss in 2003 when he shorted soybean meal, Guan continued to pursue trading, driven by a fascination with the market [5][6] - In 2004, after a period of research and learning, he successfully turned 5,000 yuan into 25 million yuan by adhering to a strategy based on weekly trends [6][9] Group 2: Trading Philosophy - Guan's trading philosophy is centered around three key principles: 1. Weekly theory, which helps filter out short-term noise and reflects medium-term trends [9] 2. Risk control, emphasizing the importance of stop-loss orders to protect overall capital [9] 3. Integration of knowledge and action, ensuring that long-term training leads to instinctive responses in trading [10] Group 3: Challenges and Setbacks - Guan faced significant setbacks, including a disastrous shift to short-term trading that resulted in substantial losses during the cotton market surge in 2010 and 2011 [7][8] - His gambling habits led to a depletion of his wealth, with his account dwindling to a few thousand yuan at one point [8] Group 4: Recovery and Success - After a period of reflection and recovery, Guan re-entered the market with 13.8 million yuan and achieved remarkable returns, including a 70-fold increase from 3.5 million yuan to 294 million yuan between August 2021 and February 2022 [8][9]