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德银:泡泡玛特全球市场、全品类“全面开花”,股价有望突破300港元
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-10 08:10
Core Viewpoint - Bubble Mart is experiencing explosive growth globally, driven by the popularity of the Labubu toy, leading to a 27% increase in stock price over the past 40 days [1][3]. Group 1: Market Expansion - Bubble Mart's cross-cultural appeal indicates that its total addressable market (TAM) is significantly larger than previously expected, especially in the European and American markets where penetration is just beginning [4][5]. - The company has accelerated its overseas expansion, adding 31 new stores this year, bringing the total to 161, with North America and Europe accounting for 35% of this total [5][9]. Group 2: Product Line Development - The recent launch of the "Labubu 3.0" series has sold out in both domestic and international markets, indicating strong demand [7]. - The upcoming "Wacky Mart" series, set to launch on June 13, will include a diverse range of products, with prices 30%-185% higher than standard figures, which is expected to enhance gross margins [7]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Deutsche Bank has raised its revenue forecast for Bubble Mart, predicting a 122% year-on-year increase to 28.89 billion RMB in 2025, with overseas revenue expected to rise from 39% in 2024 to 55% in 2025 [9][10]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is set at 7.91 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 27.4%, up from 24.0% in 2024 [9][10]. - The report also indicates a 20-25% increase in EPS expectations for 2025-2027, reflecting the growing contribution from overseas markets [10][12]. Group 4: Analyst Ratings - Deutsche Bank has raised its target price for Bubble Mart from 200 HKD to 303 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating, with expectations significantly above market consensus for 2025 revenue and net profit [12].