Summary of Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer Goods, specifically in the IP collectibles market - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$37.7 billion as of November 27, 2025 Key Points 2026 Outlook - **Price Target**: Adjusted from HK$382.00 to HK$325.00, reflecting market conditions and growth expectations [1] - **Sales Forecast**: Expected total sales of Rmb48 billion in 2026, representing a 26% year-over-year growth [11] - **Growth Drivers**: Sustained momentum anticipated from China and APAC regions, supported by strategic marketing and store openings in the US [1][2] Performance Metrics - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Labubu sales projected at Rmb15.5 billion in 2025, with growth moderating to 13% in 2026 [3][17] - Non-Labubu IPs expected to contribute Rmb22.4 billion in 2025, with a growth forecast of 35% in 2026 [11][13] - **Net Profit Margin**: Expected to remain high, around 32% in 2026, supported by lower advertising and promotional expenses [4][46] Market Dynamics - **US Market Growth**: Forecasted sales growth of 34% in 2026, with a long-term view that the US market could surpass China due to its size and demand for IP collectibles [22][23] - **Offline Expansion**: Emphasis on increasing offline presence, which currently accounts for only 35% of US revenue, compared to 60% in the broader toy and hobby category [25][30] Strategic Initiatives - **Product Launches**: Management plans to increase product launches in 2026, including new figurine collections and plush series [20][21] - **Localized Marketing**: Enhanced marketing efforts to strengthen Labubu's global presence through localized designs and collaborations [31][32] Financial Adjustments - **P/E Ratio**: Target P/E reduced from 32x to 26x for 2026, reflecting unfavorable market conditions and a focus on near-term growth [5][59] - **Sales Volatility**: Increased sales volatility expected in the short term due to market dynamics and consumer behavior shifts [5][59] Regional Insights - **Greater China**: Sales estimated at Rmb21 billion in 2025, with a growth forecast of 22% in 2026 [38] - **APAC Opportunities**: Strong growth potential in Japan and Korea, leveraging cultural similarities and consumer preferences [42][43] Risks and Considerations - **Market Sentiment**: Current bearish sentiment may overlook the long-term growth potential driven by a recurring customer base [2][3] - **Supply Chain Challenges**: Management is exploring production options in Latin America to shorten supply chains and improve US operations [35] Conclusion - Pop Mart is positioned for sustained growth in the IP collectibles market, with strategic initiatives aimed at expanding its customer base and enhancing brand presence both domestically and internationally. The company’s focus on offline expansion and localized marketing efforts is expected to drive future sales growth, despite current market volatility and adjustments in financial projections.

2025.11. 29 本文字数：1319，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 韦薇 咨询机构弗若斯特沙利文（Frost & Sullivan）数据显示，2015年至2024年，全球潮玩市场规模从87亿元增长至448亿元，年复合增速接近23%。在这 期间，包括欧美、日韩以及中国在内的潮玩市场均快速增长。如今，北美、欧洲和中国已成为全球前三大市场，而东南亚、东欧等新兴市场近年的增速 也不断加快。 载有Labubu的花车（来源：第一财经摄像） 近两年来，众多中国新消费企业进军海外市场，以寻求更高的利润率增长，包括名创优品、瑞幸咖啡、喜茶、霸王茶姬等。其中，名创优品股份有限公 司旗下潮玩品牌TOP TOY正加速海外开店。 凯思博（Keywise）中国股票基金经理徐涛此前对第一财经提及，对于优秀的潮玩IP企业，甚至在北美等国际市场脱颖而出，其创造力、全球影响力、 渗透力、营销能力都毋庸置疑，若估值回调到合理范围，亦可能再度引发投资者兴趣。 但是，在他看来，中国新消费的后续空间取决于创造新IP、不断引发共鸣以及出海的能力。强劲的IP周期与社交媒体传播力都将继续加速中国新消费的 海外扩张，而这种增长则并非是"一次性 ...

当巨型彩球在晨光中缓缓升起时，纽约的空气里已经弥漫着一年一度"梅西百货感恩节大游行"的节日气 息。 在人群的惊呼声中，一个意想不到的主角抢走了所有目光——Labubu。 美国当地时间11月27日，在今年的感恩节花车游行中，泡泡玛特的花车首次登陆纽约。在"Pop City"主 题花车上，一只棕色的Labubu和一只粉色的Mokoko与Skullpanda、Dimoo和Molly等角色一起出现在， 吸引了众多纽约客和美国当地游客的驻足观看。 但是，在他看来，中国新消费的后续空间取决于创造新IP、不断引发共鸣以及出海的能力。强劲的IP周 期与社交媒体传播力都将继续加速中国新消费的海外扩张，而这种增长则并非是"一次性"的。 未来，北美市场无疑将是中国新消费发力的重点。 泡泡玛特COO司德此前也解释称，美国市场非常大，购买力非常旺盛。同时，美国消费者对整个IP设 计、周边衍生品的需求是很旺盛的。美国市场的零售亦非常成熟，不管是购物中心体系、零售人才等各 个方面都足够好。但是，美国在产品更新、创意设计等方面的节奏，未必赶得上中国的设计效率和迭代 速度。 "其实这是我们两年前就看明白的事情，但我们也确实花了两年时间找到好的 ...

泡泡玛特这个名字对于很多美国人而言仍然陌生，但多数人都知道Labubu，尤其是孩子。一位被父母 带着来看花车巡游的小女孩茉莉对第一财经表示："我是在社交媒体上知道这些潮玩的。" 一位名叫迈克的"纽约客"对第一财经表示，"我是这个中国潮玩的粉丝，但你要确认Labubu究竟有几颗 牙齿，应该是9颗，不然就是假货。" 中国新消费的后续空间取决于创造新IP、不断引发共鸣以及出海的能力。 当巨型彩球在晨光中缓缓升起时，纽约的空气里已经弥漫着一年一度"梅西百货感恩节大游行"的节日气 息。 在人群的惊呼声中，一个意想不到的主角抢走了所有目光——Labubu。 美国当地时间11月27日，在今年的感恩节花车游行中，泡泡玛特的花车首次登陆纽约。在"Pop City"主 题花车上，一只棕色的Labubu和一只粉色的Mokoko与Skullpanda、Dimoo和Molly等角色一起出现在， 吸引了众多纽约客和美国当地游客的驻足观看。 凯思博（Keywise）中国股票基金经理徐涛此前对第一财经提及，对于优秀的潮玩IP企业，甚至在北美 等国际市场脱颖而出，其创造力、全球影响力、渗透力、营销能力都毋庸置疑，若估值回调到合理范 围，亦可能 ...

泡泡玛特旗下Labubu首次亮相梅西感恩节大游行并取代经典形象大力水手，标志着这一中国IP已成功 晋升为全球流行符号。其产品不仅成为跨越年龄层的文化现象，更作为收藏品、时尚配饰和网络迷因席 卷主流市场，展现了中国文化出口的突破性成就。 在刚刚过去的感恩节期间，泡泡玛特旗下IP Labubu首次亮相第99届梅西百货感恩节大游行，取代经 典形象大力水手成为全场焦点，引发社交媒体热烈讨论。 据《纽约时报》报道，这一标志性事件具有深刻的文化隐喻：在今年的游行队伍中，曾经的经典形象 大力水手波派缺席了，取而代之的是来自亚洲的新一代流行符号。 Labubu的出现进一步证明了其在 全球范围内的崛起，这些娃娃已经成为收藏品、包包和背包的配饰，以及儿童和成人共同喜爱的网络 迷因，同时也是中国文化出口努力取得显著成功的一个例证。 这一现象级的市场表现被视为公司业绩兑现的先行指标。2025年11月27日，美银证券重申了对泡泡玛 特的"买入"评级，并将目标价维持在400港元。随着Labubu席卷纽约，美银认为，美国市场已确立成 为泡泡玛特新的增长引擎。 这次亮相不仅是一次商业推广，更是一次文化符号的更迭。游行执行制片人威尔·科斯表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The debut of Labubu at the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade signifies a cultural shift, highlighting the rise of new Asian pop icons in global markets, replacing traditional symbols like Popeye [2][10]. Group 1: Market Performance and Growth Potential - Bank of America reiterated a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart, maintaining a target price of 400 HKD, indicating that the U.S. market is becoming a new growth engine for the company [4]. - Despite a recent 35% pullback from its peak, the company's fundamentals remain strong, particularly in overseas IP operations, presenting an attractive buying opportunity [7]. - The success of Labubu is seen as a precursor to the company's performance, with projections indicating significant revenue growth in the coming years [4][12]. Group 2: IP Strategy and Cultural Impact - The collaboration with Macy's for the "Friendsgiving in Pop City" float represents a strategic move to integrate modern cultural elements into traditional events [8][10]. - Labubu's popularity is not a random success but a result of sustained and effective IP management, with a significant contribution to overall revenue [11]. - The company has launched various strategic initiatives in the U.S., including pop-up stores and collaborations with popular media, enhancing its brand visibility [11]. Group 3: Financial Projections and Valuation - Financial models predict that Pop Mart will achieve revenues of 37.08 billion RMB and a net profit of 13.06 billion RMB in 2025, with further growth expected in 2026 [12]. - The target price of 400 HKD is based on a balanced valuation approach, indicating a favorable price-to-earnings ratio compared to industry averages [12]. - Recent stock price declines are attributed to market sentiment rather than fundamental deterioration, suggesting a potential value recovery opportunity [12].

智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，维持泡泡玛特(09992)"买入"评级，目标价400港元，指现估 值仅相当预测明年市盈率15倍，并预测公司于2025年至2027年净利润年复合增长率达34%。泡泡玛特在 美国市场的IP营运不断加强，成为新亮点。在参与梅西百货感恩节巡游后，Labubu在纽约表演日中不断 提升曝光度，并引发社群媒体的广泛关注。 该行预计，泡泡玛特2025年至2027年收入370.82亿、521.35亿及659.88亿人民币，估计2025年至2027年 经调整盈利预测130.58亿、185.15亿及234.82亿元人民币，估计2025年至2027年每股盈利预测各为9.8元 (同比升2.8倍)、13.9元(同比升41.8%)及17.63元人民币(同比升26.8%)。 在资金流动方面，该行认为，流入消费板块的资金，或带来正面的市场贝塔效应。2025年上半年， Labubu的贡献约占总收入的35%，而其他多个IP(如Skullpanda、Dimoo、Molly)在Labubu走红前已展现 出强劲人气。因此，该行认为Labubu的受欢迎并非偶然成功，而是泡泡玛特持续且充分营运IP的成果。 该行表示， ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) with a target price of HKD 400, indicating that the current valuation corresponds to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times for next year, and forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 34% in net profit from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of RMB 37.082 billion, RMB 52.135 billion, and RMB 65.988 billion for the years 2025 to 2027 [2] - Adjusted profit forecasts for the same period are estimated at RMB 13.058 billion, RMB 18.515 billion, and RMB 23.482 billion [2] - Earnings per share predictions for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be RMB 9.8 (up 2.8 times year-on-year), RMB 13.9 (up 41.8% year-on-year), and RMB 17.63 (up 26.8% year-on-year) [2] Group 2: Market Activities and IP Operations - Pop Mart's IP operations in the U.S. market are strengthening, highlighted by Labubu's participation in Macy's Thanksgiving Parade, which has increased visibility and social media engagement [1] - Recent activities include Labubu's appearances at the Empire State Building and NBA games, along with collaborations with KOLs for street events [1] - The company has strategically launched more offline IP activities since Q4 of this year, including a pop-up store for Skullpanda in New York and a collaboration with the TV show "Wednesday" [1] Group 3: Revenue Contribution and Market Sentiment - Labubu is expected to contribute approximately 35% to total revenue in the first half of 2025, with other IPs like Skullpanda, Dimoo, and Molly showing strong popularity prior to Labubu's rise [1] - The influx of funds into the consumer sector may create a positive market beta effect [1] - The company's proactive approach to IP operations is seen as a way to alleviate investor concerns regarding 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that Pop Mart is strengthening its IP operations in the US market, becoming a new highlight [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Participation in Macy's Thanksgiving Parade has increased exposure for Labubu, generating significant attention on social media [1] - Since Q4 of this year, the company has strategically launched more offline IP activities, including a pop-up store for Skullpanda in New York and a collaboration with the TV show "Wednesday" [1] - The bank believes that the strong performance during the US Q4 peak season may provide robust support for the company's annual performance [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - The bank maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of HKD 400, indicating that the current valuation corresponds to a projected P/E ratio of 15 times for next year [1] - Projected net profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2027 is expected to reach 34% [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 37.082 billion, 52.135 billion, and 65.988 billion respectively, with adjusted profit forecasts of 13.058 billion, 18.515 billion, and 23.482 billion [1] - Earnings per share projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be HKD 9.8 (up 2.8 times), HKD 13.9 (up 41.8%), and HKD 17.63 (up 26.8%) respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the fundamentals of Pop Mart have not changed but have instead strengthened, and the market's panic presents an excellent allocation opportunity [1] Group 1: Rating and Price Target Adjustment - On October 15, Morgan Stanley upgraded Pop Mart's rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight," raising the target price from 300 HKD to 320 HKD based on two key factors [2] - The first factor is the continued strength of popular IPs, with Labubu's production capacity increased tenfold compared to Q1, yet Labubu 3.0 and Mini Labubu remain sold out in all regions [2][5] - The new IP "Star People" is rapidly emerging, expected to contribute 8% of sales in 2027 [2][10] Group 2: Valuation and Market Sentiment - The second factor is the significant improvement in valuation, with the stock price down 24% from its August peak while the Hang Seng Index rose 7%, leading to a more attractive risk-reward ratio with a projected 20x P/E for 2026 [3][11] - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that Pop Mart's success is not reliant on a single IP, showcasing its global layout and strong pricing power to withstand external risks [3] Group 3: Core Engine and Demand Sustainability - Labubu remains the core engine of growth for Pop Mart, with its astonishing popularity supporting the company's expansion [4] - Despite a tenfold increase in Labubu's production capacity, the products remain sold out, dispelling market concerns about sustainable demand [5] Group 4: New IP Development - The new IP "Star People" is proving the company's ability to diversify its IP matrix, with products from the Halloween series selling out within minutes on major online platforms [8] - The secondary market shows a premium of 130% for "Star People," indicating a genuine fan base rather than just a substitute for Labubu [9][10] Group 5: Financial Projections and Growth - Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings forecasts for Pop Mart by 5-7% for 2025-2027, with expected sales and adjusted profits for 2025 growing by 165% and 276% year-on-year, respectively [14][15] - The company is projected to continue strong growth in 2026, with sales and profits expected to grow by 28% and 29% year-on-year [15] Group 6: Global Supply Chain and Trade Risks - Morgan Stanley believes that concerns over global trade friction and tariff risks will have a limited financial impact on Pop Mart [17] - The company has prepared inventory for the 2025 Q4 shopping season to mitigate recent tariff fluctuations and has the ability to raise prices to offset cost increases [18] - Morgan Stanley estimates that a price increase of about 15% would fully offset the impact of tariffs on gross margins in the Americas [19] Group 7: Global Expansion Strategy - To support long-term global expansion, Pop Mart is planning six major manufacturing centers (four in China and two overseas) [20] - Sales contribution from the Americas is expected to rise from approximately 21% in 2025 to 28% in 2027, with overseas business contributing nearly 60% to group earnings by 2027 [21] - The increasing uncertainty of tariffs may accelerate the company's global supply chain layout, fundamentally reducing geopolitical risks [22]