Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In 2025, the float glass market was in a state of "weak demand recovery - slow supply clearance - high inventory platform", with prices fluctuating around the cost line. The rebound height depends on the de - stocking slope, and the sustainability depends on the cold - repair intensity and restart constraints [1][5]. - In 2026, under the baseline scenario, glass will still operate around the cost zone. A strong - trending scenario relies on accelerated cold - repair and improved de - stocking slope due to short - term demand outperformance; a weak scenario corresponds to weaker demand and further inventory accumulation [6]. - In terms of strategies, industrial clients should lock in costs at low prices and seize selling - hedging opportunities during rebounds. Financial clients are more suitable to express views through basis, inter - period, and volatility tools and prioritize tail - risk management [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Float Glass Futures Market Review - **Market Overview**: In 2025, the glass market was in a state of "sticky bottom - grinding". The main contract price moved closer to the cost line with significantly reduced volatility, showing a weak downward trend throughout the year with only a short - term rebound at the end of the year. The price was suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, and the fundamental problem was the slow repair of the real - estate chain [5]. - **Futures Market Capital Behavior and Volatility**: In 2025, the market consensus was that supply clearance would be slow and demand would not reverse strongly in the short term. Volatility converged from a high level, and trading activity was high. Strategies shifted from "direction" to "structure", and tail - risk management was prioritized [15]. - **Basis and Futures - Spot Structure**: The futures market reacts to expectations faster than the spot market and is more likely to price in pessimistic sentiment in advance. The basis is mostly a moderate positive value, providing space for basis regression and inter - period structure trading. In the current stage, grasping futures - spot structure and basis changes can improve the winning rate [17]. II. Float Glass Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Supply: Persistence and Constraints of Cold - Repair**: In 2025, the daily output of float glass remained high, and cold - repair had not been released on a large scale. The cold - repair decision has a threshold effect and is more likely to occur intensively under certain conditions. Cost and profit differentiation affect supply elasticity. Three key supply - side signals should be focused on [19][22][23]. - **Demand: Real Estate Remains the Foundation**: In 2025, the apparent demand for float glass decreased by about 9.3% year - on - year. The real - estate policy and sales data have a time - lag effect on glass demand. Deep - processing and energy - saving glass show structural resilience, and exports play a marginal role in diverting supply but cannot reverse the overall situation [27][28]. - **Inventory: Passivation Effect of High - Level Platform**: As of December 11, 2025, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.227 million heavy boxes, a year - on - year increase of 22.26%. There is a "passivation effect" on price rebounds. Price and inventory are negatively correlated on a monthly basis, and the inventory inflection point often leads the rise of the price center [38]. - **Import and Export**: In 2025, the export volume index of float glass fluctuated at a high level year - on - year, while the import index declined. Exports play a marginal role in diverting supply but are affected by multiple factors and are less stable than domestic consumption [44]. III. Float Glass Cost - Profit: Profit Structure Determines Supply Elasticity and Rebound Height - The cost line of glass provides a dynamic "hard constraint" on the price. Profit differentiation intensifies the range - bound oscillation. In 2026, for a trend - upward movement, continuous inventory decline and relatively stable cost lines are required [46]. IV. 2026 Market Outlook: Three Scenario Analyses - **Baseline Scenario**: Glass will operate around the cost zone, and a strong upward trend requires the resonance of continuous inventory de - stocking and improved real - estate funding. - **Stronger Scenario**: It depends on accelerated cold - repair and improved de - stocking slope due to short - term demand outperformance. - **Weaker Scenario**: It corresponds to weaker demand and further inventory accumulation, with prices possibly falling below the cash cost of most routes [6]. - Three main lines of tracking are proposed: inventory, profit and supply, and demand. Key monitoring indicators are also provided [53][55]. V. Strategy Recommendations - **Industrial Clients**: The strategy design should shift from "single - point prediction" to "path management". A three - layer framework is proposed, including baseline hedging, rhythm hedging, and risk hedging. - **Upstream Producers**: When the price is at the upper edge of the cost zone or the basis converges significantly, start selling hedging. High - cost producers can have a higher hedging ratio and maintain flexibility when the inventory inflection point is established and cold - repair continues [56]. - **Traders and Deep - Processing Enterprises**: Buy in batches at low prices to lock in costs. During rebounds, focus on "locking in profits" rather than "chasing high prices". Deep - processing enterprises should link internal management leading indicators with hedging rhythms [57]. - **Financial Traders**: In a high - inventory and low - volatility environment, use basis and inter - period strategies. Options should be used for risk hedging [58].