Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In 2025, the float glass market was in a state of "weak demand recovery - slow supply clearance - high inventory platform", with prices fluctuating around the cost line. The rebound height depends on the de - stocking slope, and the sustainability depends on the cold - repair intensity and restart constraints [1][5]. - In 2026, under the baseline scenario, glass will still operate around the cost zone. A strong - trending scenario relies on accelerated cold - repair and improved de - stocking slope due to short - term demand outperformance; a weak scenario corresponds to weaker demand and further inventory accumulation [6]. - In terms of strategies, industrial clients should lock in costs at low prices and seize selling - hedging opportunities during rebounds. Financial clients are more suitable to express views through basis, inter - period, and volatility tools and prioritize tail - risk management [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Float Glass Futures Market Review - **Market Overview**: In 2025, the glass market was in a state of "sticky bottom - grinding". The main contract price moved closer to the cost line with significantly reduced volatility, showing a weak downward trend throughout the year with only a short - term rebound at the end of the year. The price was suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, and the fundamental problem was the slow repair of the real - estate chain [5]. - **Futures Market Capital Behavior and Volatility**: In 2025, the market consensus was that supply clearance would be slow and demand would not reverse strongly in the short term. Volatility converged from a high level, and trading activity was high. Strategies shifted from "direction" to "structure", and tail - risk management was prioritized [15]. - **Basis and Futures - Spot Structure**: The futures market reacts to expectations faster than the spot market and is more likely to price in pessimistic sentiment in advance. The basis is mostly a moderate positive value, providing space for basis regression and inter - period structure trading. In the current stage, grasping futures - spot structure and basis changes can improve the winning rate [17]. II. Float Glass Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Supply: Persistence and Constraints of Cold - Repair**: In 2025, the daily output of float glass remained high, and cold - repair had not been released on a large scale. The cold - repair decision has a threshold effect and is more likely to occur intensively under certain conditions. Cost and profit differentiation affect supply elasticity. Three key supply - side signals should be focused on [19][22][23]. - **Demand: Real Estate Remains the Foundation**: In 2025, the apparent demand for float glass decreased by about 9.3% year - on - year. The real - estate policy and sales data have a time - lag effect on glass demand. Deep - processing and energy - saving glass show structural resilience, and exports play a marginal role in diverting supply but cannot reverse the overall situation [27][28]. - **Inventory: Passivation Effect of High - Level Platform**: As of December 11, 2025, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.227 million heavy boxes, a year - on - year increase of 22.26%. There is a "passivation effect" on price rebounds. Price and inventory are negatively correlated on a monthly basis, and the inventory inflection point often leads the rise of the price center [38]. - **Import and Export**: In 2025, the export volume index of float glass fluctuated at a high level year - on - year, while the import index declined. Exports play a marginal role in diverting supply but are affected by multiple factors and are less stable than domestic consumption [44]. III. Float Glass Cost - Profit: Profit Structure Determines Supply Elasticity and Rebound Height - The cost line of glass provides a dynamic "hard constraint" on the price. Profit differentiation intensifies the range - bound oscillation. In 2026, for a trend - upward movement, continuous inventory decline and relatively stable cost lines are required [46]. IV. 2026 Market Outlook: Three Scenario Analyses - **Baseline Scenario**: Glass will operate around the cost zone, and a strong upward trend requires the resonance of continuous inventory de - stocking and improved real - estate funding. - **Stronger Scenario**: It depends on accelerated cold - repair and improved de - stocking slope due to short - term demand outperformance. - **Weaker Scenario**: It corresponds to weaker demand and further inventory accumulation, with prices possibly falling below the cash cost of most routes [6]. - Three main lines of tracking are proposed: inventory, profit and supply, and demand. Key monitoring indicators are also provided [53][55]. V. Strategy Recommendations - **Industrial Clients**: The strategy design should shift from "single - point prediction" to "path management". A three - layer framework is proposed, including baseline hedging, rhythm hedging, and risk hedging. - **Upstream Producers**: When the price is at the upper edge of the cost zone or the basis converges significantly, start selling hedging. High - cost producers can have a higher hedging ratio and maintain flexibility when the inventory inflection point is established and cold - repair continues [56]. - **Traders and Deep - Processing Enterprises**: Buy in batches at low prices to lock in costs. During rebounds, focus on "locking in profits" rather than "chasing high prices". Deep - processing enterprises should link internal management leading indicators with hedging rhythms [57]. - **Financial Traders**: In a high - inventory and low - volatility environment, use basis and inter - period strategies. Options should be used for risk hedging [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November 2025, the float glass futures showed a trend of "bottoming out and then rebounding oscillating". The market in December will continue the pattern of supply - demand game. The supply - side cold - repair capacity may accelerate, and the demand side will enter the seasonal off - season. The futures price is likely to oscillate in the range of 1030 - 1065 yuan/ton. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy and focus on the cold - repair implementation rhythm and inventory reduction situation [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Futures Market Trend - In November, the main contract of float glass futures (FG2601) showed an oscillating repair trend of "bottoming out in the early stage and rebounding at the end of the month". The closing price on November 28 was 1053 yuan/ton, up 4.9% from the end of October. The whole - month low was 1002 yuan/ton, and the maximum rebound amplitude was 5.1%. The monthly trend can be divided into three stages: continuous bottom - seeking from November 1 - 18, stop - falling and stabilization from November 19 - 24, and oscillating rebound from November 25 - 28 [5]. 1.2 Futures - Spot Structure - In November, the linkage between the float glass futures and spot markets increased significantly. The spot price oscillated and rebounded synchronously with the futures. By November 28, the national average spot price was 1090 yuan/ton, up 0.93% from the end of October. The basis of the FG2601 contract changed from +45 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to - 37 yuan/ton at the end of the month. Regionally, there were obvious differences. Overseas, the import and export volumes decreased, and the overseas market had limited support for domestic prices [6]. 2. Float Glass Supply - Demand Fundamentals 2.1 Supply Side - In November, the supply side of float glass showed the characteristics of "local contraction, overall looseness". The average monthly start - up rate was 74.51%, down 2.3 percentage points from October. The weekly output decreased from 111.02 tons to 110.39 tons. Due to profit differentiation, the industry was difficult to form a concentrated production cut. The inventory first increased and then decreased, and was still at the second - highest level in the same period of history [16][17]. 2.2 Demand Side - In November, the demand side of float glass showed the differentiated characteristics of "marginal improvement in completion, weak terminal procurement". The real - estate completion area increased, driving a slight rebound in architectural glass demand, but the new - start area decreased significantly, and the medium - and long - term demand growth was insufficient. The downstream deep - processing link was dull, and the demand in other downstream fields was mixed [23]. 2.3 Cost Side - In November, the cost of float glass showed a downward trend, and the cost support for price weakened. The average production cost was 1085 yuan/ton, down 2.1% from October. Cost differentiation further intensified the structural differences on the supply side [37]. 3. Market Outlook for December 2025 3.1 Supply - Demand Pattern - The supply - side contraction is expected to accelerate in December. The demand side will enter the seasonal off - season, and the total demand is expected to decline by 5% - 7% month - on - month. The inventory is expected to continue the slow de - stocking trend, but the de - stocking pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [45]. 3.2 Cost Side - In December, the cost of float glass is expected to remain stable, and the cost support will be marginally enhanced. The average production cost may rise to 1090 - 1100 yuan/ton, forming a bottom support for the futures price [46]. 3.3 Technical Aspect - Technically, the FG2601 contract is in the middle of the 1020 - 1070 yuan/ton range. The short - term bullish momentum is still there, but the rebound momentum has weakened. The upper pressure level is 1065 yuan/ton, and the lower support levels are 1030 yuan/ton and 1020 yuan/ton [46]. 4. Operation Strategy Suggestions for December 4.1 Trading Strategy - Short - term strategy: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy in the 1030 - 1065 yuan/ton range. - Medium - term strategy: Pay attention to long opportunities brought by unexpected supply contraction. - Hedging strategy: Producers can sell - hedge above 1060 yuan/ton, and deep - processing enterprises can buy - hedge below 1030 yuan/ton [47].