财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 2025-08-25 市场开始逐步交易弱现实，螺矿盘面延续偏弱运行 研究员 Z0017173 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 【螺纹钢】 姓名：薛国鹏 F3073406 期货方面：本周螺纹 10 合约在多头主力减仓驱动下延续小幅下挫。截止周 五，螺纹 10 合约收于 3119 元/吨，环比上周下跌 69.0 元，周 跌幅 2.16%。 从 业 资 格 号 ： 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格普遍小幅下调，整体成交一般。截止周 五，全国螺纹平均报价下调 49 元至 3335 元/吨；其中上海地区 螺纹价格下调 40 元至 3280 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价格下调 30 元至 3310 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格下调 50 元至 3240 元/吨； 天津地区螺纹价格下调 50 元至 3270 元/吨；广州地区螺纹价格 下调 50 元至 3300 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.36%，环比减少 0.23%， 同比增加 5.89%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.25%，环比增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, in the medium - to - long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips, and be aware of the basis regression risk of near - term contracts near the delivery date [2]. - For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 16, most of the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3503.78 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22% to 10720.81 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.22% to 2230.19 points. The STAR 50 Index rose 0.14% to 997.63 points. Market turnover was 1461.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 173.3 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, social services, automobiles, and pharmaceutical biology led the gains, while steel, banks, and non - ferrous metals led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IH>IF. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3276, 211, and 1928 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 6.9 billion, - 6.5 billion, 200 million, and 13.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +3 billion, +9.1 billion, - 3.1 billion, and - 8.9 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis and Basis Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 89.26, 67.59, 22.6, and 9.7 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 15.01%, - 12.21%, - 6.13%, and - 3.85% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 14%, 10%, 20%, and 26% respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Near the delivery date, pay attention to the basis regression risk of near - term contracts. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [2]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 16, the yields of treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short - term decline and long - term increase. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.36, a decrease of 1.06 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.502, a decrease of 0.12 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.602, an increase of 0.05 bps; the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.924, an increase of 0.09 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. The CTD bonds, yield changes, corresponding net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 520.1 billion yuan and withdrew 75.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the real - estate market sentiment has recently contracted, while the other four indicators are similar to the same period [12].

面临库存压力。基差维持正常范围，后续市场交易更多是政策预期，预计反弹高度和力度将较为有限操作 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1205 | 40 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1052 | 72 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 153 | -32 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1470453 | -180882 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1502078 | -120680 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -279455 | 28480 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -205464 | 145295 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3679 | -34 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 802 | -55 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -20 | -5 | | | 玻璃合约9月- ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic futures market for polysilicon is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices fluctuating between 32,840.0 yuan/ton and 33,985.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 4.80% [1] - The market is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, leading to intensified market speculation, with short-term prices expected to remain strong [1] Group 2 - From the supply side, all polysilicon manufacturers are currently operating at reduced capacity, and there is an increasing expectation for new production capacity, although many companies are facing cash cost losses, leading to reduced production enthusiasm [2] - Demand from downstream photovoltaic component production has been adjusted downward, indicating weakening demand, while polysilicon inventory levels remain high due to unsold stock from previous purchases [2] - The overall sentiment in the market is gradually improving due to the issuance of photovoltaic desertification plans in the northern regions, despite significant pressure on the demand side [2] Group 3 - The operational status of major silicon material manufacturers for July remains uncertain, with potential production cuts anticipated, while the photovoltaic industry may also see larger-scale reductions in the third quarter [3] - The total warehouse receipts remain low, indicating that the risk of warehouse squeezing has not been completely eliminated, necessitating attention to the registration progress of warehouse receipts [3] - Short-term price expectations are for continued strong fluctuations, with adjustments needed based on upstream and downstream production schedules [3]

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.06.27 」 纯碱玻璃市场周报 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾：本周纯碱期货上涨1.96%，玻璃期货上涨1.19%，本周纯碱期货反弹，主要原因来自于基差 回归交易，同时由于本周产量下滑，整体期货价格受到支撑，玻璃方面虽然减产，但是由于受到国内相 关金融政策利好刺激，价格底部上行，同时本周大部分能源价格出现上升，带动成本上行，从而带动需 求缓慢复苏。 u 行情展望：纯碱方面，供应端来看本周国内纯碱开工率下跌，纯碱产量下滑，市场供应依旧宽松，本周 国内纯碱利润下滑，目前氨碱法利润转负，由此反馈出下周纯碱产量增速将进一步放缓，后续冷修有望 增加，需求端玻璃产线冷修增加一条，整体产量小幅下滑，维持在底部，刚需生产迹象明显。光伏玻璃 整体出现需求下滑迹象，预计下周继续下滑，对于纯碱来说需求出现负反馈。本周国内纯碱企业库存增 加，主要需求不足导致，预计下周继续累库。综上纯 ...

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-06-25 刚需生产迹象明显。行业整体利润不佳，继续下滑，后续复产力度恐继续下行。对供给端来说由于当下处 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 于底部，煤制法利润未转负之前，不会有太大变化。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，5月房地产数据显示下 免责声明 滑明显，需求预计进一步走弱。下游深加工订单下滑，采购以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 地产相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。本周基差维持正常范围，后续市场交易更多是政策预 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 期，预计反弹高度和力度将较为有限.操作上短线建议逢低多，中长线依旧维持逢高空思维。 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 ...

形势不容乐观，5月房地产数据显示下滑明显，需求预计进一步走弱。下游深加工订单下滑，采购以刚需为 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1161 146 | -12 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -20 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1015 1569278 | 8 84429 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | | | | | | | 1472003 | 30129 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -307826 | -34580 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -245913 | 29274 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3863 | -150 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 877 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 7 | -5 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -51 | 4 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | 46 | 9 | | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | ...

，继续下滑，后续复产力度恐继续下行。对供给端来说由于当下处于底部，煤制法利润未转负之前，不会 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 有太大变化。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，5月房地产数据显示下滑明显，需求预计进一步走弱。下游深 免责声明 加工订单下滑，采购以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 临库存压力。本周基差维持正常范围，后续市场交易更多是政策预期，预计反弹高度和力度将较为有限.操 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-06-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.06.20 」 纯碱玻璃市场周报 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾：本周纯碱期货上涨1.47%，玻璃期货上涨3.18%，本周纯碱期货反弹，上半周纯碱期货在玻 璃带动下反弹，后续由于市场开始对于纯碱增产的担忧，以及光伏玻璃的减产，纯碱开始在下半周小幅 回落，本周玻璃期货上半周稍微企稳，下半周开始由于空头减仓，以及市场对于会议的预期，开启了反 弹势头。 u 行情展望：纯碱方面，供应端来看本周国内纯碱开工率上涨，纯碱产量上涨，但整体上涨速度趋缓，市 场供应依旧宽松，本周国内纯碱利润下滑，但目前利润依旧为正，由此反馈出下周纯碱产量增速将进一 步放缓，后续冷修有望增加，需求端玻璃产线无太大变化，整体产量小幅增加，维持在底部，刚需生产 迹象明显。光伏玻璃整体出现需求下滑迹象，预计下周继续下滑，对于纯碱来说需求出现负反馈。本周 国内纯碱企业库存增加，主要产量增加导致，预计下周继 ...

维持在底部，刚需生产迹象明显。行业整体利润不佳，后续复产力度恐继续下行。对供给端来说由于当下 处于底部，煤制法利润未转负之前，不会有太大变化。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，5月二手房价格继续 免责声明 下行，需求将进一步走弱。下游深加工订单下滑，采购以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。基差回归有所建树，后续将继续主导交易，但是反弹高度 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 和力度均有限。操作上短线建议逢低多，中长线依旧维持逢高空思维。 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-06-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1176 | 环比 数据指标 6 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 998 | 环比 18 | | --- | --- ...