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如何看部分地区线上国补暂停和618销售情况?
2025-06-04 15:25
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the impact of the suspension of national subsidies (国补) on the black electrical appliances market, particularly in regions like Chongqing, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, which are significant for sales and production [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Subsidy Suspension**: The suspension of national subsidies in regions like Chongqing and Guangdong has significantly affected the black electrical appliances market, leading to a decline in sales [1][2][3]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: The cross-province subsidy policy allowed companies registered in specific cities to sell nationwide while enjoying local government subsidies. This policy has been disrupted, causing market disorder [1][5]. 3. **E-commerce Competition**: In 2025, JD.com’s advantage in self-operated business through national subsidies is diminishing as platforms like Tmall and Douyin enter the competition [1][6]. 4. **Sales Growth**: During the subsidy period, major appliances saw significant growth, particularly in kitchen and bathroom appliances, with 70% of GMV contributed by subsidized products [1][7]. 5. **Sales Performance**: JD.com’s growth rate for major appliances in Q1 2025 was only 13%, falling short of the 20% target, indicating a slowdown in demand [1][21]. 6. **Consumer Behavior**: Consumers are willing to purchase appliances from other regions to take advantage of subsidies, especially when the subsidy amount is substantial [14]. 7. **Real Estate Market Influence**: The lack of explosive growth in appliance demand is attributed to the weak real estate market and demand being pulled forward in late 2024 due to subsidy rumors [15]. 8. **Future of Subsidy Policies**: The national subsidy policy is expected to continue beyond one year, despite local government financial pressures, as the overall goal is to stimulate consumption [16][18]. Additional Important Content 1. **Subsidy Usage**: The specific reasons for the suspension of subsidies include significant funding gaps in local governments, rather than system upgrades [2][4]. 2. **Product Performance**: Categories like kitchen appliances and air conditioners showed notable growth during the subsidy period, with average prices for kitchen appliances increasing from 2,200 yuan to approximately 2,800 yuan [10]. 3. **Online vs. Offline Sales**: Despite rumors of a shift towards offline sales, online platforms like JD.com and Tmall continue to dominate, with significant sales through online channels [12][23]. 4. **Sales Events**: The pre-sale period for JD.com’s 618 event in 2025 did not yield significant sales increases, only achieving 1.2 to 1.3 times the usual sales [19][22]. 5. **Government Settlement Processes**: The settlement cycle for subsidies varies by province, typically taking one to three months [8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the challenges and dynamics within the black electrical appliances market amid changing subsidy policies and competitive pressures.