海尔智家 20251120 摘要 海尔智家 10 月运营良好，国内外市场均实现中位数偏左增长，国内市 场表现出较强韧性，优于行业整体水平。 为应对 2025 年国补政策带来的高基数效应，海尔智家提升产品竞争力， 特别是空调和水产品表现突出，并通过数字化库存改革提高全流程效率。 公司通过产品结构补充和迭代升级应对国补退坡，同时综合考虑市场竞 争情况进行定价，避免恶性价格竞争，保障利润空间。 目前量贡献多于价贡献，公司采取一定程度的自补措施，但受到严格利 润考核限制，并通过调整费用结构进行管理，对全年利润指引影响不大。 公司预计 2026 年国家补贴政策将持续，但金额和范围可能变化，公司 将根据最悲观的行业预期制定目标，保持双位数增长目标不变。 10 月份出口方面，新兴市场表现优于发达国家市场。四季度盈利能力预 计保持稳定增长，并按照整体业绩指引进行拆解。 面对宏观经济不确定性，海尔智家将抓住确定性的增长机会，提升效率 和市场份额，改善边际利润，对 2026 年业绩规划充满信心。 Q&A 海尔智家在 2025 年第三季度的业绩表现如何？ 2025 年第三季度，尽管整个行业呈现双位数下降趋势，但海尔智家实现了双 位 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：陆偲聪 邮箱：lusicong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050002 家电行业 2025Q3 基金重仓分析 重仓家电比例下降，家电上游及清洁电器获 推荐（维持） 增配 行业研究 家电 2025 年 11 月 18 日 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 80 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 20,320.65 | 1.67 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 18,146.56 | 1.85 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.9% | | 相对表现 | 3.4% | -9.4% | -4.7% | -11% -2% 8% 18% 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 25/09 25/11 2024-11-18~2025-11 ...

值得一提的是，在随后举行的三季度财报电话会议上，京东CEO许冉表示，从去年开始，"国补"政策明 显激发了消费需求，特别是对"家电"和"电脑"这两个品类的销售拉动是很明显的，这也导致行业增长在 短期内不可避免地进入了高基数的情况。"我相信市场对此也是有预期的。"许冉称，然"国补"造成了短 期行业需求的变化，但她觉得更重要、更深远的意义在于它驱动了整个家电行业的升级，推动了产品的 创新、智能化和绿色化，也为行业高质量的增长注入了动力。 许冉透露，京东在"国补"期间积极地支持了政策落地，在"家电"和"3C"品类的市场份额、供应链能力也 得到了进一步提升，特别是自营模式。这些核心优势的持续强化才是京东差异化的竞争力和业务长期发 展的基础。京东也会继续发挥在产品、价格、服务上的优势，长期目标始终是不断强化用户心智，持续 巩固和提升市场份额。（旺旺） 来源：环球网 【环球网科技综合报道】11月14日消息，京东集团日前发布了2025年三季度业绩。三季度，京东集团收 入为2991亿元人民币。同比增长14.9%；净利润53亿元，上年同期净利润117亿元。外卖等新业务三季 度收入同比增长214%；服务收入同比增长达到30.8%， ...

2025.11.13 本文字数：1435，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 陆涵之 许冉最后表示，无论是在国补期间，还是未来进入常态化发展，京东的团队都会持续发挥供应链能力， 加强与品牌共建，通过定制包销这些方式推动产业效率的提升，带来行业利润的提升，也为京东带来长 期利润率的改善。京东有信心在家电和3C品类持续保持市场份额的提升。京东将继续强化自身能力和 战略布局，与品牌商紧密合作，共同应对短期的行业挑战，助力行业实现长期的健康发展。 同时，京东的增长动力也会更加多元化，超市、健康时尚这些日百品类以及广告等服务收入都保持持续 地加速增长态势，成为京东整体增长的新动力。 国补此前为家电品类销售提供了强大驱动力。在2024年四季度财报电话会议上，许冉曾表示，"从去年 下半年开始，国家出台的各项消费提升政策，在我们看来的确取得了很积极的效果，也带动了消费信心 的逐步提升。" 此外，许冉回应了京东外卖业务的发展情况。 从增长看，三季度京东外卖的GMV环比取得了双位数增长。许冉表示在单量增长的同时，订单结构变 得更加健康，正餐的订单占比持续提升，占到总订单量的"绝大多数"。同时，三季度外卖客单价环比出 现提升。外 ...

京东第三季度财报发布后，国补、外卖等话题受到关注。 今年年底，用户将在北京看到更多的七鲜小厨。 国补此前为家电品类销售提供了强大驱动力。在2024年四季度财报电话会议上，许冉曾表示，"从去年 下半年开始，国家出台的各项消费提升政策，在我们看来的确取得了很积极的效果，也带动了消费信心 的逐步提升。" 此外，许冉回应了京东外卖业务的发展情况。 从增长看，三季度京东外卖的GMV环比取得了双位数增长。许冉表示在单量增长的同时，订单结构变 得更加健康，正餐的订单占比持续提升，占到总订单量的"绝大多数"。同时，三季度外卖客单价环比出 现提升。外卖业务在补贴效率方面正逐步提升，京东外卖针对不同地域用户群体以及订单类型正进行更 加精细化地运营。 许冉给出了几项具体举措。在产品创新方面，京东会与品牌方合作，推出更多定制化产品来推动产品的 升级和创新。在价格方面，京东会通过规模优势和供应链能力，带动成本和价格的不断优化，为用户提 供更具竞争力的价格。在服务方面，京东也会打造线上线下全渠道的购物体验，以及送装一体的差异化 服务，为用户提供更加优质的体验和更高效的模式，以巩固京东的市场份额。截至三季度，在全国已经 有超过20家京东M ...

2025年双十一大促期间，数字货运平台运满满发布的货运数据显示，在"国补"政策与电商大促的双重推动下，全国多座城市呈现出"产业输出"与"消费升 级"双向驱动的强劲态势。邯郸、菏泽、台州、西安、邢台、徐州六座城市作为区域经济样本，其货运数据不仅反映出消费信心的提振，更凸显出智慧物流 在畅通经济循环、赋能区域发展中的关键作用。 产业输出强劲，区域特色经济"货畅其流" 双十一期间，各城市依托自身产业优势，实现特色产品"走出去"。形成一幅多点开花、货畅其流的区域经济图景。 作为华北重要的工业基地，邯郸在双十一期间发货总量环比上涨29%，收货总量环比增长25%。这一"进出同频"不仅折射出当地产业的无限活力，更凸显了 消费升级与政策赋能的双重效应。钢材发货量同比上涨46%，平均运距达580公里，显示出其市场辐射范围的持续扩大。 与此同时，徐州也大量接收米类麦仁粗粮、饲料等，形成了"大进大出"的粮食加工与贸易格局，巩固了其在区域农业经济中的核心枢纽地位。除了农业，徐 州展现了其坚实的产业基础与强大的区域辐射力。建材位列发出品类榜首且同比大幅增长，金属钢材、零件配件同样名列前茅。一项特别的记录诞生于此期 间——一批绿化树乔木 ...

Core Insights - Arrow Home (001322) has reported significant improvements in gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin of 28.51%, up 2.09 percentage points year-on-year, although net profit remains under pressure due to increased expense ratios [1][4] Group 1: Sales Strategy and Performance - The company focuses on retail channel development, implementing a store efficiency enhancement project to empower distributors and improve retail revenue [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 26.86%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit showed a slight increase due to a decline in revenue scale leading to higher expense ratios [1][4] - The company plans to replicate its retail management model across other channels to drive overall channel synergy and improve performance [2] Group 2: Future Initiatives - For Q4 2025, the company will continue to promote the store efficiency project and enhance product and marketing strategies to improve gross margin through optimized product sales structure [2] - The company is also focusing on collaboration with a mainstream smart home ecosystem platform to enhance sales of new products like smart bathroom appliances [2] Group 3: International Expansion - The company is pursuing an international strategy by establishing partnerships with local distributors and expanding its online sales channels through major overseas e-commerce platforms [3] - Despite a decline in revenue from the North American market due to international trade environment changes, the company has seen growth in other overseas markets [3] Group 4: Impact of National Subsidy Policies - National subsidy policies have positively influenced home furnishing consumption, and the company is leveraging these opportunities to optimize its sales structure [4] Group 5: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 4.472 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.45% year-on-year, while net profit was 32.548 million yuan, an increase of 1.74% [4] - The company’s debt ratio stands at 48.68%, with investment income of 7.6 million yuan and financial expenses of 32.4714 million yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 12.15 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant improvement in gross margin year-on-year for Q3, with a gross margin increase of 6.1 percentage points [2]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 5.59 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 120 million CNY, an increase of 26.0% year-on-year [1][2]. - Q3 revenue was 1.6 billion CNY, down 11.0% year-on-year, but the net profit for the quarter was 855,000 CNY, a recovery from a loss of 77.32 million CNY in the same period last year [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s Q3 net profit margin was 0.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily driven by the improvement in gross margin [2]. - The company’s operating cash flow for Q3 decreased by 180 million CNY year-on-year, attributed to increased inventory [2]. - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.23 CNY, 0.35 CNY, and 0.42 CNY respectively [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Trends - The company’s revenue growth rate is projected to decline in 2025 to 83.1 billion CNY, followed by a slight recovery in 2026 and 2027 [3][10]. - The net profit is expected to increase to 1.8 billion CNY in 2025, 2.7 billion CNY in 2026, and 3.2 billion CNY in 2027 [3][10]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the domestic small home appliance industry, benefiting from government subsidies that are expected to stimulate consumer demand [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding new products and channels, which is anticipated to enhance revenue growth in the future [1][2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.585 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 9.66%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.03% to 124 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items rose by 48.17% to 192 million yuan [2][5]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.598 billion yuan, down 10.99% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 101.11% to 854,600 yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 542,910 yuan, up 106.67% [2][5]. - The company is actively adapting to changes in consumer channels and preferences, focusing on high-quality small household appliances and leveraging new emerging channels such as content e-commerce platforms [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's gross margin was 26.92%, an increase of 2.20 percentage points year-on-year. The operating profit for the same period was 103 million yuan, a significant increase of 456.23% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 1.85%, up 1.55 percentage points [10]. - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 26.22%, up 6.11 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating profit was -26.5868 million yuan, a reduction in losses of approximately 104 million yuan year-on-year [10]. Market Strategy - The company is positioning itself as a high-quality small appliance manufacturer, actively embracing changes in demand and channels, and optimizing operational efficiency. It aims to tap into potential consumer demand increments by enhancing product development and marketing strategies [10]. - The company is focusing on developing products that cater to the evolving preferences of consumers, particularly through platforms like Xiaohongshu, Douyin, and video channels, thereby improving brand loyalty and user engagement [10]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 265 million yuan, 292 million yuan, and 331 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 27.91, 25.41, and 22.41 times [10].

Core Insights - The financial performance of China's major white goods manufacturers, Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric Appliances, has shown significant divergence in Q3 2023, with Gree experiencing declines in both revenue and net profit, while Midea and Haier reported growth in these metrics [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Midea Group reported revenue of approximately 363.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.82%, and a net profit of about 37.9 billion yuan, up nearly 20% [2]. - Haier Smart Home's revenue was close to two-thirds of Midea's, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 10%, and a net profit of 17.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.68% increase [2]. - Gree Electric Appliances saw revenue of about 137.2 billion yuan, a decline of 6.5%, and a net profit of approximately 21.5 billion yuan, down 2.27% [3]. Market Conditions - Q3 2023 was characterized by a challenging environment for the white goods market, with significant differentiation in performance among the major players [4][5]. - The overall market for large home appliances showed a mixed performance, with air conditioning sales growing by about 3%, while washing machines and refrigerators saw declines of approximately 16% and 30%, respectively [4][5]. - The decline in Gree's financial metrics is attributed to its heavy reliance on air conditioning sales, which faced intense price competition [5][6]. Pricing Strategies - Major brands, including Gree, Midea, and Haier, have reduced their air conditioning prices in response to market pressures, with average prices dropping by 7% to 11% year-on-year [6]. - The entry of new competitors, such as Xiaomi, has intensified competition in the air conditioning market, impacting the sales of established brands [6][7]. Export Challenges - The export market for white goods, particularly air conditioning units, has also faced challenges, with a reported 12.9% decline in export volumes in Q3 [7]. - High inventory levels in certain overseas markets have contributed to this downturn, alongside increased competition from new entrants [7]. Future Outlook - The upcoming Q4, which includes the Double Eleven shopping festival, may not yield significant improvements for the white goods sector due to high comparative bases from the previous year and ongoing price wars [8]. - Analysts express skepticism about the effectiveness of promotional strategies in stimulating demand, given the current market conditions [8].