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【蔚来(NIO.N)】3Q25亏损持续收窄,4Q25E扭亏前景可期——2025年三季度业绩点评(倪昱婧/邢萍)
光大证券研究· 2025-11-27 23:04
Core Viewpoint - NIO's financial performance shows signs of improvement with a narrowing loss and increasing revenue, indicating potential for profitability in the near future [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, NIO's total revenue increased by 16.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter to 21.79 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 13.9%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The Non-GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed by 37.3% year-on-year and 33.1% quarter-on-quarter to 2.76 billion yuan [4]. - The delivery volume in Q3 2025 rose by 40.8% year-on-year and 20.8% quarter-on-quarter to 87,000 vehicles, with automotive business revenue increasing by 15.0% year-on-year and 19.0% quarter-on-quarter to 19.2 billion yuan [5]. Group 2: Cost Management and Profitability Outlook - NIO's Non-GAAP R&D expense ratio decreased by 6.6 percentage points year-on-year and 4.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 8.9%, while the Non-GAAP SG&A expense ratio fell by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year and 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 18.0% [5]. - The Non-GAAP loss per vehicle narrowed to 32,000 yuan, and free cash flow turned positive, with total cash on hand reaching 36.7 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025 [5]. - Management guidance for Q4 2025 indicates expected deliveries of 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles and a gross margin of 18%, suggesting a potential turnaround to profitability [5]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Expansion - New model orders are gradually being released, with the ES8 and L90 showing strong performance, indicating a potential recovery in fundamentals as sales of high-margin models increase [6]. - NIO plans to launch three new mid-to-large SUVs in 2026, aiming to cover various price segments and boost domestic sales [6]. - The company is accelerating its international expansion and has established a joint venture for chip supply, which may open new profit models [6].