2026年春节假期叠加新能源汽车购置税新政，成为车企2月销量总体"遇冷"的重要原因。2026年春节假期较长导致汽车行业的有效产销时间大幅缩 减。 2月成为汽车行业的消费淡季，但仍有部分车企表现突出。比如，吉利旗下高端新能源汽车品牌极氪，2月销量同比增长70%至2.39万辆。 【导读】车企竞争格局又生变：零跑重夺新势力销冠，比亚迪跌破20万辆大关 3月1日，多家车企披露2月销量，总体"遇冷"成为关键词。 2月份比亚迪、上汽的销量，同比分别下降41.09%、8.64%。其中比亚迪月度销量为19.02万辆，在近年来的月度销量中首次跌破20万辆大关。 2月，头部造车新势力的竞争门槛下降至2万辆，其中零跑重夺造车新势力月度销冠，销量为2.81万辆。 接下来，汽车市场的竞争变数颇多。小米创办人，董事长兼CEO雷军发布微博称："新一代SU7正在紧锣密鼓地准备。" | 车企 | 2月销量或交付量(辆) | 同比 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 比亚迪 | 190190 | -41.09% | -9. 46% | | 吉利新能源 | 117488 | 19. 36% | -5. 44% | ...

有目共睹的是，随着补贴缩水，2026年车市开年首月没有炸出一份符合预期的成绩单。 洗牌之下，1月SUV车型排行榜仍有值得玩味的现象：小米YU7夺冠，博越L强势空降，一堆神车排名暴跌，换来的是油车集体回春... 新能源补贴逐渐退坡后，最重要的SUV市场将何去何从？ 新旧交替 2026年1月是个特殊的月份，补贴退坡正式落地，乱局让旧的"神车"落幕，迎来新的"神车"接替。 小米YU7以37869辆的成绩夺得1月SUV排行榜的榜首，更是无定语销量第一，堪称"传奇耐黑王"，网上越黑，消费者越买。 博越L以34176辆的月销量紧随其后，去年仍在前十以外的博越L，今年空降第二。 其原因很可能是吉利在2025年已经超额完成了全年销量目标，为了让2026年开年就有一个漂亮的"开门红"，有计划地将部分12月的订单和交付量延迟到了 1月，排在第四的星越L也有着相似的命运。 问界M7以26454辆排到了第三，问界的品牌力、华为的智能方案、合理的定位和价格让M7的销量抵御住了冲击。 这样看跻身前十的油车好像多了，去年12月油车还只有卡罗拉锐放、途观L、锋兰达三台，今年却又多了三台，传统油车纷纷回春，坐稳六强。 整体来看，补贴退坡首月， ...

1. 蔚来-SW第四季度业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2026年02月25日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测营业收入333.63~371.21亿元，同比增长69.3%~88.4%；预测净利润-12.20~21.03亿元，同比增长82.9%~129.5%；预测经调整净利润2.10亿元，同比变 动103.2%。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 | 机构简称 | | 盖非收入 | 同比 | 净利润 | 同比 | 经调整净利润 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卖方预测区间 | | 333.63~371.21 | 69.3%~88.4% | -12.20~21.03 | 82.9%~129.5% | 2.10 | 103.2% | | 平均数 | - | 348.70 | 77.0% | 3.04 | 104.3% | 2.10 | 103.2% | | 中位数 | | 341.27 | 73.2% | 1.66 | 102.3% | 2.10 | 103.2% | | 国泰海通 ...

来源：朝阳永续 1. 蔚来-SW第四季度业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2026年02月25日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测营业收入333.63~371.21亿元，同比增长69.3%~88.4%；预测净利润-12.20~21.03亿元，同比增长 82.9%~129.5%；预测经调整净利润2.10亿元，同比变动103.2%。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 | The F I the Jen . Well Vanted | | --- | | 数据来源:朝阳水续盈利预测数据库 | | 15 . 14 12 . 10 . 1 . | 3) 世界模型NWM发布：公司发布世界模型NWM，将为搭载NX9031及NVIDIA Orin X芯片的车型分批 推送NWM升级，提升城市/高速NOP+、泊车及智能安全性能。 4) 自研芯片外供：公司自研的神玑NX9031芯片不仅自用，还通过合资公司向其他车企或非汽车行业客 户推广芯片，保留与其他伙伴在芯片上的合作可能性。 海通国际证券认为：蔚来-SW在3Q25实现营收217.9亿元，同比增长17%，环比增长15%，汽车销售收入 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities has initiated coverage on NIO-SW (09866) with a "Buy" rating, citing increased sales and a higher proportion of high-priced models leading to the company's first quarterly profit in Q4 2025. The firm projects revenues of 87 billion, 130.6 billion, and 161.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and sets a target price of 50.59 HKD for 2026 based on a 0.85x PS valuation [1][2]. Group 1 - The company achieved a record quarterly delivery of 125,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 72%, with NIO, Ladao, and Firefly brands delivering 67,000, 38,000, and 19,000 vehicles respectively, all setting historical highs [2]. - The newly launched high-end ES8 model accounted for 32% of Q4 sales, significantly boosting overall profitability. The adjusted operating profit (Non-GAAP) is expected to be between 700 million and 1.2 billion yuan, while the GAAP operating profit is projected to be around 200 million to 700 million yuan, marking the first quarterly profit [2]. - The CEO of NIO, Li Bin, emphasized the importance of the basic operating unit (CBU) mechanism in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, indicating that the company will continue to advance this mechanism [2]. Group 2 - Since 2025, the company has launched several models including Firefly, the new ES8, and Ladao L90, enhancing its product lineup. In December 2025, the new ES8 sold 22,000 units, becoming the sales champion in the large SUV, large three-row SUV, and models priced above 400,000 yuan categories [3]. - The company is expected to introduce new products such as the NIO ES9, NIO ES7, and Ladao L80 in 2026, further enriching its product matrix and enhancing market competitiveness [3]. Group 3 - The company has established a comprehensive technology system centered around self-developed intelligent driving chips, a full-domain vehicle operating system, and world model algorithms, as reported in the 2025 NIO Full-Stack Technology Annual Report. This investment in intelligence is anticipated to enter a harvest phase, potentially driving both product capability and sales growth [4].

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities initiates coverage on NIO-SW (09866) with a "Buy" rating, citing increased sales and a higher proportion of high-priced models leading to the first quarterly profit in Q4 2025, with projected revenues of 87 billion, 130.6 billion, and 161.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The company achieved a record quarterly delivery of 125,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 72%, with NIO, Ladao, and Firefly brands delivering 67,000, 38,000, and 19,000 vehicles respectively, all setting historical highs [2] - The newly launched high-end model ES8 accounted for 32% of Q4 sales, significantly boosting overall profitability [2] - The adjusted operating profit (Non-GAAP) for Q4 2025 is estimated to be between 700 million and 1.2 billion yuan, while the GAAP operating profit is projected to be around 200 million to 700 million yuan, marking the first quarterly profit [2] Group 2: Product Expansion - Since 2025, the company has launched several models including Firefly, the new ES8, and Ladao L90, continuously enhancing its product lineup [3] - The new ES8 sold 22,000 units in December 2025, becoming the best-selling model in the large SUV, large three-row SUV, and models priced above 400,000 yuan categories [3] - The company plans to introduce new products such as NIO ES9, NIO ES7, and Ladao L80 in 2026 to further enrich its product matrix and enhance market competitiveness [3] Group 3: Technological Development - The company has established a comprehensive technology system centered on self-developed intelligent driving chips, a full-domain operating system, and world model algorithms, as reported in the 2025 annual report [4] - The company is expected to enter a harvest phase for its investments in smart technology, which is likely to drive improvements in product capability and sales [4]

Group 1 - NIO's stock rose nearly 5% to $5.32 on Monday [1] - NIO ES8 topped the sales chart for electric vehicles priced over 300,000 yuan in January, selling over 17,000 units [1] - NIO ES8 was not only the best-selling large SUV but also ranked first among all vehicle categories priced above 300,000 yuan, including both fuel and new energy vehicles [1]

Core Viewpoint - NIO's ES8 has topped the sales chart for electric vehicles priced over 300,000 yuan, indicating strong market demand and positioning within the premium electric vehicle segment [1] Group 1: Company Performance - NIO's stock rose nearly 5%, reaching $5.32 [1] - The ES8 model sold over 17,000 units in January, making it the best-selling large SUV for the month [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The ES8 not only led the sales among electric vehicles but also ranked first across all vehicle categories priced above 300,000 yuan, including both fuel and new energy vehicles [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant success of NIO's ES8 in 2025, achieving a record delivery of 48,134 units in December and marking a profitable quarter [5][6] - The ES8's success is attributed to three main factors: cost reduction leading to a competitive price of 406,800 RMB, the benefits of NIO's battery swapping technology, and the refined product quality of the ES8 [8][9][11] - The article anticipates the performance of NIO's upcoming flagship model, the ES9, with high expectations [12] Group 2 - Xiaomi's YU7 is described as a phenomenon in the automotive market, with 152,357 units registered in 2025 and a remarkable sales performance in January 2026 [15][16] - The success of YU7 is linked to Xiaomi's strong supply chain management, marketing prowess, and the efforts of its design and engineering teams [16][17] - YU7 is positioned as a major competitor to Tesla's Model Y, indicating its significant impact on the market [18] Group 3 - Leap Motor is recognized for its steady growth, aiming for a sales target of one million units in 2025, with models like the C10 and C11 driving its success [21][22][24] - The company has demonstrated resilience by enhancing existing products and optimizing design and configuration [23][25] Group 4 - Nissan's N7 is highlighted as a key example of a joint venture brand successfully developing a fully electric vehicle independently, achieving significant sales milestones [31][32] - The N7's development showcases the collaboration between Nissan and local partners, emphasizing the shift towards localized electric vehicle production [30][32] Group 5 - Geely's Star Wish has maintained strong sales, achieving over 40,000 units per month and becoming the best-selling model in its category [37][38] - The article attributes its success to effective marketing strategies and strong product features that appeal to a wide audience [38] Group 6 - The Lantu Dreamer has undergone significant upgrades, enhancing its electric range and luxury features, resulting in a notable increase in sales [42][45] - The model's versatility as both a family and business vehicle is emphasized, contributing to its market position [44] Group 7 - The BYD Yangwang U9 Xtreme has set records for speed, showcasing BYD's engineering capabilities and technological advancements in the electric vehicle sector [48][50] - The U9 Xtreme's performance highlights BYD's commitment to breaking foreign monopolies in the high-performance electric vehicle market [50] Group 8 - Volvo's XC70 is noted for its successful transition to hybrid technology, becoming the first luxury hybrid model to exceed 5,000 units in monthly sales [57][58] - The article suggests that this model could represent a new direction for luxury brands in their electric vehicle strategies [58] Group 9 - Tesla's Model Y remains a strong contender in the market despite a 20% decline in new registrations, ranking third in sales among electric vehicles [63][64] - The introduction of the extended Model Y L variant aims to enhance its appeal and maintain its competitive edge [66][68] Group 10 - The ZunJie S800 has achieved remarkable sales in the luxury segment, delivering over 4,000 units in December 2025, setting a record for Chinese brands in the million-level market [73] - The model's design and luxury features are highlighted as key factors in its success, challenging traditional luxury car perceptions [73]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights key figures in the automotive industry who are driving the rapid development of the new energy vehicle sector and shaping its future direction. Group 1: Zhu Jiangming - The Low-Key Leader - Zhu Jiangming is recognized as one of the most low-profile leaders among new energy vehicle companies, focusing on practical results rather than publicity [4][5]. - Under his leadership, Leap Motor has achieved impressive sales, breaking delivery records with over 70,000 units delivered in consecutive months [7][9]. - Zhu emphasizes the importance of sustained effort and warns against complacency, stating that achieving sales leadership is just a step in a long journey [10][12]. Group 2: He Xiaopeng - The Persistent Engineer - He Xiaopeng's company, XPeng, is no longer seen merely as a follower of Tesla, having made significant advancements in areas like flying cars [16][19]. - The competition in the automotive sector is intensifying, particularly in autonomous driving and humanoid robots, where both XPeng and Tesla are focusing their efforts [21][22]. Group 3: Li Bin - Striving for Profitability - Li Bin faces ongoing scrutiny regarding NIO's profitability, yet he remains focused on ensuring the company's survival and success [25][26]. - The launch of the new ES8 model has led to record deliveries, with NIO achieving a historic monthly delivery high of 48,134 vehicles in December 2025 [30][32]. - NIO's financial performance is improving, with expectations of a quarterly profit for the first time [32][34]. Group 4: Wei Jianjun - The Engaged Leader - Wei Jianjun of Great Wall Motors has stepped into the spotlight, actively promoting the company's technologies and participating in public events [36][40]. - His approach has helped enhance the brand's visibility and influence in the market [40]. Group 5: Lei Jun - The Marketing Controversy - Lei Jun's reputation has fluctuated dramatically, with early successes in product launches followed by negative press related to marketing strategies [42][44]. - He defends his focus on technology and product quality, asserting that marketing should not overshadow the core value of the products [45][47]. Group 6: Elon Musk - Transitioning from Politics to Business - Elon Musk's year was marked by significant challenges for Tesla, including backlash from political actions that affected sales [50][52]. - He has since refocused on business, pushing forward with advancements in autonomous driving and robotics [56][57]. Group 7: Li Xiang - The Silent Strategist - Li Xiang has adopted a more restrained public presence, focusing on the company's future direction and management style [59][63]. - He emphasizes the importance of embodied intelligence in future developments, aiming for substantial revenue growth [63]. Group 8: Zhu Huarong - Ambitious Independence - Zhu Huarong's leadership marks a new chapter for Changan Automobile, which has gained independence and is poised for significant growth [64][70]. - The company is expected to leverage its new status to access more resources and enhance its market position [70][72]. Group 9: Zeng Yuqun - The Steady Force - Zeng Yuqun of CATL maintains a strong position in the new energy vehicle market, continuing to innovate with new battery technologies [73][75]. - The company is actively expanding its international presence, particularly in Europe, to solidify its role in the global market [78][80]. Group 10: Ursula von der Leyen - Influential Policy Maker - Ursula von der Leyen's policies significantly impact the automotive industry, affecting both European and Chinese manufacturers [81][84]. - Her decisions regarding emissions regulations and tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles will shape the competitive landscape in the coming years [84][86].