1. 蔚来-SW第四季度业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2026年02月25日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测营业收入333.63~371.21亿元，同比增长69.3%~88.4%；预测净利润-12.20~21.03亿元，同比增长82.9%~129.5%；预测经调整净利润2.10亿元，同比变 动103.2%。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 | 机构简称 | | 盖非收入 | 同比 | 净利润 | 同比 | 经调整净利润 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卖方预测区间 | | 333.63~371.21 | 69.3%~88.4% | -12.20~21.03 | 82.9%~129.5% | 2.10 | 103.2% | | 平均数 | - | 348.70 | 77.0% | 3.04 | 104.3% | 2.10 | 103.2% | | 中位数 | | 341.27 | 73.2% | 1.66 | 102.3% | 2.10 | 103.2% | | 国泰海通 ...

来源：朝阳永续 1. 蔚来-SW第四季度业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2026年02月25日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测营业收入333.63~371.21亿元，同比增长69.3%~88.4%；预测净利润-12.20~21.03亿元，同比增长 82.9%~129.5%；预测经调整净利润2.10亿元，同比变动103.2%。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 | The F I the Jen . Well Vanted | | --- | | 数据来源:朝阳水续盈利预测数据库 | | 15 . 14 12 . 10 . 1 . | 3) 世界模型NWM发布：公司发布世界模型NWM，将为搭载NX9031及NVIDIA Orin X芯片的车型分批 推送NWM升级，提升城市/高速NOP+、泊车及智能安全性能。 4) 自研芯片外供：公司自研的神玑NX9031芯片不仅自用，还通过合资公司向其他车企或非汽车行业客 户推广芯片，保留与其他伙伴在芯片上的合作可能性。 海通国际证券认为：蔚来-SW在3Q25实现营收217.9亿元，同比增长17%，环比增长15%，汽车销售收入 ...

「经历过至暗时刻、淬炼出更具组织韧性的蔚来，已经站在新的起点上。」 站在蔚来公司百万台量产车达成的吊旗下回望2025年，这家公司过去一年的发展会让人有点恍惚。 英国后来发生了什么，历史已经给出答案。对蔚来而言，这个百万台更像一个阶段性注脚——证明它经 历过多少淬火的考验。 李斌在2026年的新年信中提到，蔚来进入发展的第三个阶段，开启了新一轮的高速增长周期。凭借过去 一年的绝地反击，蔚来销量已经重回上升阶段，2025年全年交出32.6万辆车，同比增长46.9%，进入智 能电动汽车产业竞争的决赛阶段。 蔚来已今非昔比。过去十一年，蔚来一路走来并非坦途，而是不断经历生死的考验，也在一次次起伏 中，修正方向，锻炼出一种深扎组织的坚韧。 「在最困难的时候做最对的决定，好的决定都是在最危险的时候做的」 2024年末翘尾效应下，蔚来交付破3万，但好光景仅仅维持了一个月。2025年2月，蔚来交付量迅速滑落 成1万多，叠加前一季度建设乐道品牌的巨大支出，亏损及流动性问题被反复放大；二代车型的市场反 馈不及预期，销量压力从终端向内部传导，士气一度低落。甚至有人判断，2025年蔚来可能重演2019年 的生死危机。 情绪同样传导到 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities has initiated coverage on NIO-SW (09866) with a "Buy" rating, citing increased sales and a higher proportion of high-priced models leading to the company's first quarterly profit in Q4 2025. The firm projects revenues of 87 billion, 130.6 billion, and 161.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and sets a target price of 50.59 HKD for 2026 based on a 0.85x PS valuation [1][2]. Group 1 - The company achieved a record quarterly delivery of 125,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 72%, with NIO, Ladao, and Firefly brands delivering 67,000, 38,000, and 19,000 vehicles respectively, all setting historical highs [2]. - The newly launched high-end ES8 model accounted for 32% of Q4 sales, significantly boosting overall profitability. The adjusted operating profit (Non-GAAP) is expected to be between 700 million and 1.2 billion yuan, while the GAAP operating profit is projected to be around 200 million to 700 million yuan, marking the first quarterly profit [2]. - The CEO of NIO, Li Bin, emphasized the importance of the basic operating unit (CBU) mechanism in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, indicating that the company will continue to advance this mechanism [2]. Group 2 - Since 2025, the company has launched several models including Firefly, the new ES8, and Ladao L90, enhancing its product lineup. In December 2025, the new ES8 sold 22,000 units, becoming the sales champion in the large SUV, large three-row SUV, and models priced above 400,000 yuan categories [3]. - The company is expected to introduce new products such as the NIO ES9, NIO ES7, and Ladao L80 in 2026, further enriching its product matrix and enhancing market competitiveness [3]. Group 3 - The company has established a comprehensive technology system centered around self-developed intelligent driving chips, a full-domain vehicle operating system, and world model algorithms, as reported in the 2025 NIO Full-Stack Technology Annual Report. This investment in intelligence is anticipated to enter a harvest phase, potentially driving both product capability and sales growth [4].

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities initiates coverage on NIO-SW (09866) with a "Buy" rating, citing increased sales and a higher proportion of high-priced models leading to the first quarterly profit in Q4 2025, with projected revenues of 87 billion, 130.6 billion, and 161.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The company achieved a record quarterly delivery of 125,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 72%, with NIO, Ladao, and Firefly brands delivering 67,000, 38,000, and 19,000 vehicles respectively, all setting historical highs [2] - The newly launched high-end model ES8 accounted for 32% of Q4 sales, significantly boosting overall profitability [2] - The adjusted operating profit (Non-GAAP) for Q4 2025 is estimated to be between 700 million and 1.2 billion yuan, while the GAAP operating profit is projected to be around 200 million to 700 million yuan, marking the first quarterly profit [2] Group 2: Product Expansion - Since 2025, the company has launched several models including Firefly, the new ES8, and Ladao L90, continuously enhancing its product lineup [3] - The new ES8 sold 22,000 units in December 2025, becoming the best-selling model in the large SUV, large three-row SUV, and models priced above 400,000 yuan categories [3] - The company plans to introduce new products such as NIO ES9, NIO ES7, and Ladao L80 in 2026 to further enrich its product matrix and enhance market competitiveness [3] Group 3: Technological Development - The company has established a comprehensive technology system centered on self-developed intelligent driving chips, a full-domain operating system, and world model algorithms, as reported in the 2025 annual report [4] - The company is expected to enter a harvest phase for its investments in smart technology, which is likely to drive improvements in product capability and sales [4]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from NIO regarding its expected profitability in Q4 2025 and the subsequent vehicle recall has raised questions about the company's future performance and market position [4][5][10]. Group 1: NIO's Profitability Outlook - NIO forecasts an adjusted operating profit of between 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan for Q4 2025, marking a significant turnaround from a loss of 5.5436 billion yuan in Q4 2024 [5][6]. - The company aims to sell 326,000 vehicles in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.9%, with Q4 deliveries reaching 124,800 units, up 71.7% [5][6]. - The new ES8 model has contributed significantly to sales, with a monthly delivery of 22,000 units and a projected gross margin of around 18% for Q4 2025 [6][7]. Group 2: Cost Management and Efficiency - NIO has implemented cost-cutting measures and improved operational efficiency, which have helped offset high R&D and infrastructure costs [7]. - The introduction of self-developed components, such as the NX9031 driving chip, has reduced hardware costs by approximately 10,000 yuan per vehicle [7]. Group 3: Recall and Market Impact - NIO announced a recall of 246,229 vehicles due to software issues that could lead to temporary blackouts of the instrument and control screens, raising safety concerns [8][9]. - The recall is seen as a minor issue compared to more severe quality problems, and the financial impact is expected to be limited to R&D and operational costs [8][9]. Group 4: Financial Pressure and Market Challenges - NIO's total assets stand at 112.044 billion yuan, with total liabilities of 99.956 billion yuan, resulting in a high debt-to-asset ratio of 89.2%, which may affect profitability [10]. - Analysts predict a significant decline in Q1 2026 sales, estimating a drop of 30% to 35%, which could lead to further financial strain [10]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly with Tesla's price reductions, which may pressure NIO's market share and margins [10]. Group 5: Strategic Initiatives and Future Plans - NIO is committed to investing in technology and product development while enhancing its charging and battery swap infrastructure [11]. - The company aims to achieve profitability on a non-GAAP basis for the entire year of 2026, reflecting a strategic focus on user value creation and operational transformation [11].

Core Insights - NIO has officially entered a profitable phase, achieving its first quarterly profit under both GAAP and Non-GAAP standards in Q4 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous struggles [3][18] - The company has outlined ambitious goals for 2026, aiming for full-year Non-GAAP profitability and maintaining a growth rate of 40%-50% [12][27] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, NIO achieved a significant milestone with a total of 60,000 units of the new ES8 delivered within 134 days, contributing to its profitability [5][20] - The overall sales for 2025 increased by 47% year-on-year, with the second half of the year seeing a surge of over 70% [7][22] Group 2: Product and Technology - The success of NIO's new models, particularly the ES8 and the L90, has been pivotal, with the ES8 becoming the best-selling large SUV in its category [5][20] - NIO has introduced advanced technologies, including the self-developed 5nm smart driving chip and a comprehensive operating system, positioning itself as a leader in the industry [7][22] Group 3: Strategic Goals - NIO's development is divided into three phases, with the current phase being the "harvest period," focusing on solidifying profitability and growth [8][23] - The company plans to build 1,000 new battery swap stations and enhance customer experience through operational efficiency [10][25] - Long-term goals include reaching a sales target of 5 million vehicles by 2035, supported by a strong product lineup and technological advancements [12][28]

Group 1 - BYD has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government to reclaim tariffs imposed on imported materials, claiming significant costs for its operations in the U.S. [2] - Over 1,000 companies, including major players like Costco and Toyota, have initiated similar lawsuits against the U.S. government regarding tariffs [2]. - NIO's CEO Li Bin emphasized the importance of optimizing the CBU mechanism to maximize efficiency and minimize costs in the company's operations [6]. Group 2 - Ford's global sales fell by approximately 2% to around 4.4 million units, while BYD's sales reached 4.6 million units, marking a significant shift in the automotive market [6]. - BYD aims to increase its export volume to 1.3 million units in 2025, following a successful year of expansion in Europe, South America, and Asia [6]. - NIO plans to implement a "store partner" program to enhance operational efficiency and market responsiveness, allowing store managers greater decision-making power [6]. Group 3 - The European Union has approved Google's acquisition of cybersecurity startup Wiz for $32 billion, marking Google's largest acquisition to date [9]. - Apollo Global Management is nearing a $3.4 billion loan agreement to finance the purchase of NVIDIA chips for Elon Musk's xAI [10]. - Alibaba's DAMO Academy has released an open-source foundational model for embodied intelligence, RynnBrain, enhancing its AI capabilities [10]. Group 4 - The Shanghai government has opened over 5,200 kilometers of autonomous driving test roads, with plans to expand the testing area further [17]. - Toyota and Nissan reported sales increases in China for January, while Honda's sales continued to decline due to delays in new electric vehicle launches [17]. - The launch of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service by Alipay indicates a growing trend towards automated transportation solutions in urban areas [15].

Core Viewpoint - NIO is focusing on maintaining technological and product leadership while enhancing operational efficiency to ensure sustainable growth and profitability in the competitive electric vehicle market [4][8]. Group 1: Company Achievements and Growth - NIO held an all-hands meeting on February 9, where CEO Li Bin highlighted the company's achievements in 2025 and outlook for 2026, introducing a "Special Contribution Award" to recognize outstanding teams and projects [5]. - The new ES8 model delivered 60,000 units in just 134 days, significantly contributing to NIO's profitability in Q4 [5][12]. - NIO's sales grew by 47% year-on-year, with over 70% growth in the second half of the year, marking the production of the 1 millionth vehicle in January [7][16]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Li Bin emphasized the importance of NIO's "three core components": the self-developed smart driving chip NX9031, the SkyOS operating system, and the intelligent chassis, all set to be implemented in 2025 [7][13]. - The NX9031 chip, produced using a 5nm process, is a significant achievement for NIO, showcasing the company's commitment to advanced technology [7][13]. - NIO's ET9 model remains one of the most technologically advanced vehicles globally, attributed to its proprietary chip and integrated systems [13][14]. Group 3: Future Strategies and Goals - NIO aims to achieve annual Non-GAAP profitability as a foundation for sustainable development, with a focus on operational efficiency and user value creation [8][19]. - The company plans to build 1,000 new battery swap stations this year, increasing its total to over 4,600 by year-end, highlighting the importance of battery swapping in its business model [16][18]. - NIO's goal is to maintain a 40%-50% annual growth rate, targeting 5 million vehicles by 2035, while ensuring high user satisfaction [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - NIO's focus for 2025 and beyond is on maintaining technological and product leadership while ensuring operational efficiency and profitability [2][6][20]. Group 1: Company Achievements and Growth - NIO delivered 60,000 units of the new ES8 model within 134 days, significantly contributing to the company's profitability in Q4 [4][9]. - The company achieved a 47% year-on-year sales growth last year, with over 70% growth in the second half of the year [6][12]. - NIO celebrated the production of its 1 millionth vehicle in January, marking a significant milestone in its growth trajectory [12][13]. Group 2: Product and Technology Development - NIO's "new three key components" include the self-developed smart driving chip NX9031, the SkyOS operating system, and the intelligent chassis, all of which are set to be implemented in 2025 [6][10]. - The NX9031 chip, built on a 5nm process, is highlighted as a major achievement, showcasing NIO's commitment to advanced technology [10][11]. - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining product competitiveness through efficient R&D investment and prioritizing user value [18][19]. Group 3: Future Goals and Strategies - NIO aims to achieve annual Non-GAAP profitability this year, emphasizing the necessity of reasonable profits for sustainable development [7][20]. - The company plans to continue expanding its battery swap infrastructure, targeting the construction of 1,000 new swap stations this year [14][19]. - NIO's long-term vision includes maintaining a 40%-50% annual growth rate, with a goal of reaching 5 million annual sales by 2035 [20][21].