转债交易性机会
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可转债市场周观察:止盈压力缓释,关注转债交易性机会
Orient Securities· 2025-10-28 14:45
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is titled "Stop-profit Pressure Eased, Focus on Convertible Bond Trading Opportunities: Weekly Observation of the Convertible Bond Market" and was released on October 28, 2025 [2][4] - The overall view of the convertible bond market is neutral, with trading opportunities greater than trend opportunities. The key to the subsequent trend lies in the equity market [6] Group 2: Convertible Bond Views - With the strengthening of the sentiment in the underlying stocks, convertible bonds followed the upward trend. The stop-profit behavior in the early stage of convertible bonds has eased. With optimistic expectations such as the 14th Five-Year Plan policies and Sino-US relations, convertible bonds are expected to still have good returns, but a market of realizing benefits cannot be ruled out [6][9] - At the current valuation level and equity environment, it is difficult for the valuation of convertible bonds to have a logic of continuous strengthening. It is highly likely to fluctuate around the current point. The key to the subsequent trend still lies in the equity market. Investors should appropriately lower their return expectations for convertible bonds, realize and switch in a timely manner to cope with potential market fluctuations. Institutions with low positions can actively allocate when the price drops [6][9] - The equity market showed an obvious structural rebound. The high-to-low rotation was short-lived, and finally the funds returned to the technology growth sector. The technology growth remains the main line of the market outlook, and the slow bull market remains unchanged [6][9] Group 3: Convertible Bond Review - Market Overall Performance - Last week, the A-share market showed a range-bound trend. The three major stock indexes mostly rose, but the trading volume shrank significantly. All major indexes closed up, with the ChiNext Index rising about 8.05%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rising 7.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 4.73%, the China Securities 1000 rising 3.25%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rising 3.24%, the Shanghai Composite Index rising 2.88%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rising 2.74% [12] - In terms of industries, growth sectors such as communication, electronics, and power equipment performed outstandingly, while defensive sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, and beauty care declined. The average daily trading volume decreased by 395.71 billion yuan to 1.79 trillion yuan [12] - The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week were Chenfeng, Jingda, Mengtai, etc.; in terms of trading activity, Tongguang, Guanzhong, Huicheng, etc. were actively traded [12] Group 4: Convertible Bond Review - Transaction and Style Performance - Last week, convertible bonds followed the equity market upward, but the average daily trading volume decreased significantly to 55.852 billion yuan. The China Securities Convertible Bond Index rose 1.45%, the parity center rose 3.2% to 112.7 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased 1.4% to 19.7% [6][17] - In terms of style, high-priced and small-cap convertible bonds performed well, while AAA-rated and defensive convertible bonds performed weakly [6][17]