Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the response of Li Bei, founder of Hanxia Investment, to a critical piece published by Huxiu, highlighting the strong influence and performance of Li Bei in the private equity sector. The discussion revolves around the risks in current asset allocation strategies and the potential for investment opportunities in a changing economic landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Risks - Li Bei identifies significant risks in mainstream asset allocation, which is heavily concentrated in four strategies: quantitative enhancement, sci-tech funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets. Each of these strategies carries distinct risks, such as the impact of small-cap factors and the potential fallout from the AI bubble in the U.S. [2] - The current valuations of these strategies are considered high, and the crowded positions pose substantial risks, particularly if economic conditions shift [2][7]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Hanxia's current portfolio is characterized by a "deep value" approach, focusing on industry leaders with an average PE of 8 times, PB of 0.8 times, and a dividend yield of 5%. Approximately 80% of the holdings exhibit strong cyclical characteristics [3][4]. - The portfolio also includes strategies to steepen the yield curve by buying medium- to short-term government bonds while shorting long-term bonds, which is expected to mitigate losses during prolonged deflation [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Li Bei categorizes the future economic scenario into two possibilities: a reversal of deflation, which would negatively impact the mainstream strategies but benefit Hanxia's investments, and a continuation of deflation, where Hanxia may experience slight losses or gains while mainstream strategies continue to rise [6][10]. - The article notes that the current market's asset concentration poses a significant risk, as evidenced by past instances of severe sell-offs in crowded trades, such as in the renewable energy sector [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The future market dynamics may not simply be a binary outcome of either technology growth or cyclical recovery. If AI technology continues to evolve and applications expand, the tech market may persist, while cyclical sectors could also gain recognition if their fundamentals improve [8]. - The article emphasizes that even in a recovering economic environment, both cyclical and tech sectors could thrive simultaneously, depending on market conditions and investor sentiment [8][10]. Group 5: Investment Philosophy - Li Bei's investment philosophy suggests that diversifying into Hanxia's products, which are inversely correlated with mainstream assets, can effectively reduce overall portfolio volatility. The low valuation and high dividend characteristics of Hanxia's holdings provide strong downside protection in volatile markets [9]. - However, this strategy relies heavily on accurate macroeconomic predictions, and if deflation persists longer than expected, the appeal of these cyclical assets may diminish for short-term investors [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in share buybacks among Hong Kong-listed companies, indicating confidence in future prospects and helping to stabilize investor sentiment [1][2][3] - As of November 25, 2023, 247 Hong Kong companies have repurchased a total of 6.769 billion shares, amounting to approximately 154.415 billion HKD, with 90 companies repurchasing around 8.333 billion HKD since November [1][2] - Major companies leading the buyback activities include Tencent Holdings, HSBC Holdings, and AIA Group, with buyback amounts of 64.143 billion HKD, 30.257 billion HKD, and 17.693 billion HKD respectively [2] Group 2 - The buyback activities are concentrated in sectors such as financial services, information technology, consumer staples, healthcare, and energy, with notable participation from the information technology sector [1][2] - The average daily buyback amount during the week of November 18-24 exceeded 20 million HKD per company, with a peak of 55 companies initiating buybacks on November 21 [3] - Smaller companies are also engaging in buybacks, with examples like Weitai Medical repurchasing approximately 3.6415 million HKD worth of shares [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown improved liquidity, with the average daily trading volume reaching a record high of 286.4 billion HKD in Q3 2023, and September's daily average surpassing 300 billion HKD [4] - Analysts predict a dual opportunity in the Hong Kong market, focusing on high dividend assets and technology growth sectors, particularly those related to AI, as the market is expected to undergo a new round of valuation recovery [5] - The structural shift towards technology driven by AI is anticipated to be a key theme in the market, with expectations of a rebalancing between technology and cyclical sectors [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the value style is expected to outperform in the market, especially towards the end of the year, as the technology growth sector faces profit-taking pressures after previous gains [1] - The National Securities Value 100 Index increased by 0.9%, while both the National Securities Growth 100 Index and the National Securities Free Cash Flow Index rose by 0.1% [1] - There is a noted market sentiment where the risk appetite remains low, impacting the performance of growth stocks, while value assets, which have lagged previously, show greater potential for upward movement [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the securities industry is expected to be active in 2025, with a significant rise in the equity market, particularly the ChiNext Index, which has increased by 48.84% from January to October, outperforming the CSI 300 Index (+17.94%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (+17.99%) [1] - After the implementation of asset management regulations, the scale of securities firms' asset management has stabilized, with a year-on-year growth of 25% in collective asset management scale, indicating a clear trend towards active management transformation [1] - The favorable equity market has led to an increase in the proprietary trading income of securities firms, with the technology growth sector represented by the ChiNext 50 becoming a key investment direction [1] Group 2 - The rapid development of ETFs provides new opportunities for securities firms in wealth management transformation, with the scale of ChiNext 50-related ETFs growing quickly, and securities firms holding a significant 58% share in the distribution of equity products [1] - Overall profitability in the industry has improved, with listed securities firms reporting a 62% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters, significantly driven by sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals, which have a high weight in the ChiNext 50 [1] - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159375) tracks the ChiNext 50 Index (399673), which includes 50 stocks with high average daily trading volumes, focusing on high-growth sectors such as power equipment and biomedicine, serving as an important indicator of the development trends in China's emerging industries [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the value of bond allocation has gradually emerged, but the trend market still needs to wait. Most high - performing funds have warned about the short - term risks in the equity market, and convertible bonds need to wait for callback opportunities [2][4]. - High - performing pure - bond funds mainly focus on controlling drawdowns, with cautious operations. High - performing hybrid bond funds focus on technology sectors such as semiconductors and AI, and adjust positions in convertible bonds [3][69]. - High - performing convertible bond funds adjust positions based on valuation changes, and believe that convertible bond valuations will remain high, and focus on the stock market's structural opportunities [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Overview - **Newly - issued bond funds**: In Q3 2025, the number of newly - issued bond funds increased, but the share of newly - issued bond funds was still at a relatively low level in recent years. The number of newly - issued bond funds increased by 17 to 88, and the issuance scale was 146.6 billion shares, slightly higher than the same period last year but still at a low level in the past five years [6][10]. - **Bond fund scale**: The overall scale of bond funds decreased slightly, but the scale of hybrid bond funds increased significantly. The scale of bond funds decreased by 0.17 trillion to 10.74 trillion. Among them, the scale of hybrid bond funds increased by 23.84% quarter - on - quarter, while the scale of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds and short - term pure - bond funds decreased [3][13][18]. 3.2 Portfolio Management - **Fund returns**: In the context of a strong stock market and a weak bond market, the returns of bond funds declined compared to Q2. Hybrid bond funds performed strongly, while medium - and long - term pure - bond funds had negative returns. The weighted average net value of bond funds rose by 0.78% [21]. - **Asset allocation**: In Q3 2025, the proportion of public funds allocated to bonds and cash decreased, while the proportion of stock allocation increased. Open - ended bond funds significantly reduced their bond allocation by 915.233 billion, and the proportion of other types of assets increased [29][30]. - **Bond type combination**: Short - term pure - bond funds continued to increase their allocation to interest - rate bonds, medium - and long - term pure - bond funds continued to increase their allocation to credit bonds, and hybrid bond funds increased their allocation to interest - rate bonds and reduced their allocation to credit bonds and convertible bonds [37]. - **Leverage and duration**: In Q3, the leverage ratios of pure - bond funds and hybrid bond funds decreased significantly, and the durations of various bond funds were reduced to varying degrees. The weighted durations of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, short - term pure - bond funds, and hybrid bond funds decreased by 0.55 years, 0.16 years, and 0.62 years respectively [48][49]. - **Convertible bond investment**: In Q3 2025, the convertible bond positions of public funds increased, and the proportion of convertible bond positions in bond funds increased quarter - on - quarter. The positions of various rating convertible bonds increased to varying degrees, and public funds increased their positions in convertible bonds in sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, power equipment, and computers [57][58]. - **Investor behavior**: Most financial institutions and non - financial entities reduced their convertible bond positions in Q3, but public funds increased their positions by 9.78% [61]. 3.3 Institutional Views - **Operation strategies of high - performing funds**: In Q3 2025, pure - bond assets mainly focused on controlling drawdowns, and most high - performing pure - bond and hybrid bond funds reduced bond durations. High - performing hybrid bond funds focused on technology sectors and adjusted their positions in convertible bonds [69]. - **Market outlook**: High - performing pure - bond funds believe that the allocation value of bonds has gradually emerged, but the trend market still needs to wait. High - performing hybrid bond funds are neutral and optimistic about the bond market, long - term bullish on the A - share market but cautious in the short - term, and cautious about convertible bonds [78][79].

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment is cautious, with a structural characteristic of "strong defensiveness and weak growth," as evidenced by the performance of various sectors [5][8]. Market Performance - A total of 1,756 stocks rose, while the number of declining stocks was higher, indicating a cautious market sentiment [4][5]. - The trading volume in both markets was approximately 1.9 trillion, down by 2.44%, reflecting a slight decrease in trading activity but still indicating an active market [6]. Fund Flows - There was a net outflow of 1.89 billion from institutional funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow [7][8]. - Institutions are cautiously optimistic, focusing on policy and valuation safety margins, leading to profit-taking in high-valuation tech sectors and increased investments in defensive sectors like mining, insurance, and banking [8]. Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment stands at 75.85%, indicating a strong defensive preference among individual investors [9]. - The average position of investors showed 28.11% increasing positions, 17.33% decreasing positions, and 54.56% remaining unchanged [12].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is titled "Stop-profit Pressure Eased, Focus on Convertible Bond Trading Opportunities: Weekly Observation of the Convertible Bond Market" and was released on October 28, 2025 [2][4] - The overall view of the convertible bond market is neutral, with trading opportunities greater than trend opportunities. The key to the subsequent trend lies in the equity market [6] Group 2: Convertible Bond Views - With the strengthening of the sentiment in the underlying stocks, convertible bonds followed the upward trend. The stop-profit behavior in the early stage of convertible bonds has eased. With optimistic expectations such as the 14th Five-Year Plan policies and Sino-US relations, convertible bonds are expected to still have good returns, but a market of realizing benefits cannot be ruled out [6][9] - At the current valuation level and equity environment, it is difficult for the valuation of convertible bonds to have a logic of continuous strengthening. It is highly likely to fluctuate around the current point. The key to the subsequent trend still lies in the equity market. Investors should appropriately lower their return expectations for convertible bonds, realize and switch in a timely manner to cope with potential market fluctuations. Institutions with low positions can actively allocate when the price drops [6][9] - The equity market showed an obvious structural rebound. The high-to-low rotation was short-lived, and finally the funds returned to the technology growth sector. The technology growth remains the main line of the market outlook, and the slow bull market remains unchanged [6][9] Group 3: Convertible Bond Review - Market Overall Performance - Last week, the A-share market showed a range-bound trend. The three major stock indexes mostly rose, but the trading volume shrank significantly. All major indexes closed up, with the ChiNext Index rising about 8.05%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rising 7.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 4.73%, the China Securities 1000 rising 3.25%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rising 3.24%, the Shanghai Composite Index rising 2.88%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rising 2.74% [12] - In terms of industries, growth sectors such as communication, electronics, and power equipment performed outstandingly, while defensive sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, and beauty care declined. The average daily trading volume decreased by 395.71 billion yuan to 1.79 trillion yuan [12] - The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week were Chenfeng, Jingda, Mengtai, etc.; in terms of trading activity, Tongguang, Guanzhong, Huicheng, etc. were actively traded [12] Group 4: Convertible Bond Review - Transaction and Style Performance - Last week, convertible bonds followed the equity market upward, but the average daily trading volume decreased significantly to 55.852 billion yuan. The China Securities Convertible Bond Index rose 1.45%, the parity center rose 3.2% to 112.7 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased 1.4% to 19.7% [6][17] - In terms of style, high-priced and small-cap convertible bonds performed well, while AAA-rated and defensive convertible bonds performed weakly [6][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Amid repeated trade frictions, the convertible bond market may show strong resilience. Compared with the previous "tariff shock," the current market is in an upward - trending phase with higher trading activity. Although the current valuation is higher, the conversion premium rate is lower, and the implied volatility is higher, weakening the bond - like protection slightly, a market correction may present a layout opportunity [2][6][10]. - In the A - share market, cyclical sectors are relatively dominant, while the technology growth direction faces adjustment pressure. Investors should seize structural opportunities in pro - cyclical varieties and pay attention to the phased adjustment risks in the growth direction [10]. - The convertible bond market shows a slight upward trend, with both large - cap and small - cap bonds performing well. The market continues the structural repair trend, with cyclical and manufacturing sectors presenting more opportunities [10]. - The primary market supply is stable, and clause - based gaming is active. Attention should be paid to the marginal impact of downward adjustment and redemption expectations on the valuation structure and trading rhythm [10]. Summary by Directory Trade Frictions and the Evolution of the Convertible Bond Market - The previous "tariff shock" was an "amplifier" in the downward trend. Currently, the market is in an upward - trending phase, and the potential impact of repeated trade frictions may be more limited. The recent trading activity in the convertible bond market is higher, with an average trading volume of 723.9 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, compared to 587.0 billion yuan in the previous period [17]. - The current market valuation is higher, the conversion premium rate is lower, and the implied volatility is higher than in the previous period. However, the potential downward space may be restricted by the loose liquidity environment [20]. - The previous "tariff shock" had a greater impact on high - price and small - cap convertible bonds, but they recovered faster. Different industries also showed different performances [33][38]. - Overall, the impact of recent trade frictions on the convertible bond market may be controllable. A significant market adjustment may provide a good buying opportunity [41]. Market Theme Weekly Review - In the week from October 9 to 11, 2025, themes related to non - ferrous metals in the equity market were strong, while technology - growth themes were weak. Indexes related to nickel mines, copper industries, and cobalt mines led the gains, while themes such as automobiles and electronics had significant pullbacks [42]. Market Weekly Tracking Main Stock Indexes and Cyclical Sectors - The A - share main stock indexes were differentiated. Only the Shanghai Composite Index rose, and the ChiNext Index was relatively weak. The CSI 2000 and CSI 500 performed better than the SSE 50 and STAR 50. The net outflow of main funds increased, reflecting the profit - taking and risk - aversion needs of some funds [45]. - Cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals, steel, coal, and public utilities were strong, while communication and media sectors were weak. Trading was concentrated in electronics, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals, indicating a divergence in market attention between technology and cyclical sectors [48]. - The market congestion was significantly differentiated. Sectors such as electronics, communication, and machinery had a high historical quantile of trading volume and PB, while sectors such as food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and beauty care had relatively low congestion [51]. Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market showed a slight upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was basically flat compared to the previous week. Large - cap and small - cap convertible bonds performed well, but the average daily trading volume decreased slightly [54]. - The valuation structure was differentiated. The median market price fluctuated downward but remained at a high level. The implied volatility increased slightly, indicating differences between bulls and bears [60]. - Cyclical sectors were strong, with non - ferrous metals, coal, and steel leading the gains. Trading was concentrated in power equipment, electronics, and basic chemicals [63]. - Most individual bonds showed an upward trend. Among the convertible bonds in the conversion period, the top five gainers were Guanzhong Convertible Bond, Zhonghuan Convertible Bond 2, Jize Convertible Bond, Haomei Convertible Bond, and Zhenhua Convertible Bond. The top five losers were Hengshuai Convertible Bond, Zhongqi Convertible Bond, Sheng 24 Convertible Bond, Tongguang Convertible Bond, and Huicheng Convertible Bond [65]. Convertible Bond Issuance and Clause Tracking Primary Market Issuance - No new convertible bonds were listed in the week from October 9 to 11, 2025. Six listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, with a total scale of over 60 billion yuan in projects at the exchange - acceptance stage and later [10][70][71]. Clause - Based Events - Five convertible bonds announced potential downward adjustments, two announced no downward adjustments, one announced a potential redemption, and two announced early redemptions. Attention should be paid to the impact of these events on the valuation structure and trading rhythm [10].

Group 1 - The ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index fell by 2.4%, the ChiNext Growth Index decreased by 4.4%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 4.6% [1] - The ChiNext ETF (159915) saw a net subscription of over 300 million units throughout the day, accumulating over 2 billion yuan in the last five trading days, with a latest scale exceeding 112 billion yuan [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities indicated that before spring 2026, the technology sector is expected to have significantly more catalysts compared to the cyclical sectors [1] Group 2 - The technology growth sector may face short-term valuation pressure, but there remains room for long-term cost-effectiveness [1] - The technology growth sector is anticipated to continue its trend [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, major A-share indices showed an upward trend, with the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech 50 Index leading with a cumulative increase of 51.2%, while the CSI 300, Shanghai Composite Index, and SSE 50 Index all rose over 10% [1] - The total scale of ETFs increased by 18,963.19 billion yuan, reaching 56,281.34 billion yuan, with stock-type and cross-border ETFs collectively seeing a net inflow of over 200 billion yuan [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF saw a significant increase of 595.86 billion shares, with a net inflow of 55.178 billion yuan, followed by the CSI 300 ETF and Securities ETF with net inflows of 27.913 billion yuan and 24.466 billion yuan, respectively [4] - Despite the overall positive performance, the Sci-Tech 50 ETF experienced a reduction of 409.37 billion shares and a net outflow of 51.175 billion yuan, while the ChiNext ETF saw a decrease of 92.76 billion shares and a net outflow of 22.488 billion yuan [7] Group 3: Sector Insights - The chemical and robotics-themed ETFs also saw net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan, indicating strong interest in these sectors [5] - The chemical industry is approaching the end of its capacity expansion phase, with demand expected to gradually recover due to policy support and easing of trade tensions [5] - The robotics sector is witnessing accelerated production, with major companies receiving significant orders, indicating a turning point from research and development to mass production [5][11] Group 4: Fund Flow Trends - The semiconductor and chip ETFs faced substantial net outflows of 11.537 billion yuan and 9.056 billion yuan, respectively, highlighting a shift in investor sentiment despite the global semiconductor market's expected growth [11] - The overall market is experiencing increased volatility, with analysts suggesting that the market will continue to see steady fluctuations while new investment opportunities may arise [8]