转债评级下调

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2025年5月可转债市场展望:布局临期转债机会
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-05-05 15:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond valuation first declined and then rebounded, remaining relatively strong, due to the active small - cap style and prominent supply - demand contradiction. The "calendar effect" was not obvious in April 2025, with the small - cap style remaining active. The convertible bond valuation showed significant differentiation in high - low ratings and large - small caps, with balanced and equity - biased valuations remaining firm, while bond - biased convertible bond valuations declined significantly [3][21]. - In 2024, the number of convertible bonds with losses increased, and the power equipment industry started to incur large - scale losses. Convertible bonds with continuous losses or large first - time losses have a higher probability of rating downgrades. Although the risk of rating downgrades for photovoltaic convertible bonds that have received letters of concern is expected to be controllable, individual cases still need attention [3]. - Appropriate layout of underlying stocks, trading rules, and position ratio settings can enhance the returns of the near - maturity strategy. However, after adding position settings, the average return increases, but so does the maximum drawdown, so the overall position limit for the near - maturity strategy of underlying stocks should be moderately reduced [3]. - The top ten convertible bond portfolio for May includes high - dividend varieties (Shangyin, Lantian, Lvyin), high - growth performance directions (Guangda, Yangfeng), technology directions (Dinglong), robot directions (Huitong and Baolong), and directions with stable main businesses and elasticity (Wankai and Huayang) [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 4 - month Convertible Bond Market Review - In April, the median convertible bond price reached a low of 115 yuan, and there was no obvious differentiation between high - and low - priced bonds. The convertible bond price differentiation was not obvious in terms of large - small caps and high - low ratings, but was obvious in theme styles, with the financial and real estate sectors leading the gains [6][8][12]. - The small - cap style was active in April, and the "calendar effect" was not obvious. The convertible bonds outperformed the underlying stocks due to their defensive properties and recovered the "lost ground" since the beginning of the year [17][18]. - The convertible bond valuation first declined and then rebounded, remaining relatively strong. It showed significant differentiation in high - low ratings and large - small caps, and the core of the differentiation lies in the difference in the bottom - up value. The valuation supported high - priced bonds but dragged down low - priced bonds [21][24][30]. 3.2 5 - month Convertible Bond Market Outlook - As of the end of April, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale reached 689 billion yuan, ending a 19 - month decline. However, according to historical issuance patterns, the issuance volume in May may be limited, and the outstanding scale is likely to continue to decline. A new issuance peak may occur from October to November, and the top three industries in terms of issuance scale in the "exchange - accepted" state are banking, power equipment, and public utilities [43]. - The performance of convertible bonds in 2024 was generally poor, with an increase in the number of loss - making convertible bonds, especially in the power equipment industry. Convertible bonds with continuous losses or large first - time losses have a higher probability of rating downgrades. Although the risk of rating downgrades for photovoltaic convertible bonds that have received letters of concern is expected to be controllable, other industries' convertible bonds with continuous losses or losses exceeding 500 million yuan need close attention [55][61][69]. 3.3 Fund's Convertible Bond Holdings in 2025Q1 - By the end of 2025Q1, the total market value of the convertible bond market (including exchangeable bonds) was approximately 815.9 billion yuan. The total net value of funds within the statistical scope was 31.13 trillion yuan. The ratio of convertible bond market value to fund total market value was about 2.62%. All funds held convertible bonds worth approximately 281.99 billion yuan, accounting for 34.56% of the total convertible bond market value, an increase of 0.96 percentage points from the previous quarter [75]. - The convertible bond positions of funds decreased quarter - on - quarter. Structurally, the convertible bond positions of secondary bond funds decreased, while those of primary bond funds and convertible bond funds increased. The convertible bond positions of different types of funds showed different trends [77][84]. - Funds increased their holdings of photovoltaic convertible bonds. Different - scale funds had different preferences for increasing or decreasing their holdings of convertible bonds [88][90]. - At the end of 2025Q1, the convertible bond holdings of partial - debt hybrid, ordinary stock - type, and primary bond funds were concentrated in the balanced area. The equity - related demands of primary and secondary bond funds for convertible bonds increased [94]. 3.4 Near - Maturity Convertible Bond Strategy and Monthly Top Ten Combinations - The proportion of near - maturity convertible bonds (defined as those with a static remaining term of less than 2 years) has significantly increased, accounting for 29.41% of the total number of convertible bonds in the market. Convertible bonds with individual actual controllers have a higher proportion and more significant conversion - promotion effects [101]. - The timing of participating in near - maturity convertible bonds involves a trade - off between win - rate and cost - effectiveness. Buying at a lower price closer to the redemption price is associated with a higher win - rate and average return [110][112]. - Appropriate layout of underlying stocks, trading rules, and position ratio settings can enhance the returns of the near - maturity strategy. After adding position settings, the average return increases to 14.98%, but the maximum drawdown also rises significantly, so the overall position limit should be moderately reduced [114][117]. - The top ten convertible bond portfolio for May includes high - dividend varieties (Shangyin, Lantian, Lvyin), high - growth performance directions (Guangda, Yangfeng), technology directions (Dinglong), robot directions (Huitong and Baolong), and directions with stable main businesses and elasticity (Wankai and Huayang) [118].