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新能源转债配置空间再思考
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-28 12:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - The convertible bond market has experienced several stages in the past 1 - 2 months, with structured sector and individual bond opportunities increasing. The new energy sector (wind, solar, and storage) is a key area, with a preference for storage over wind and solar. The photovoltaic industry chain prices are expected to bottom - out and rebound, and upstream may benefit first [2][39][40] - Currently, it is too early to switch between high - and low - priced bonds in the new energy direction. The risk - return ratio is still acceptable, and it is recommended to seize the right - hand side opportunities under linear extrapolation of expectations [40] - The top ten convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Pufa Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, etc. [2][40] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1 Equity Market - The equity market rose overall from September 22 - 26, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.06%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.07%. However, most industries declined, with 7 out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rising, and 3 industries rising more than 2%. The power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and electronics industries led the gains [7][9][13] - The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 1997.73 billion yuan to 22950.61 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 8.01% [9] 1.2 Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market rose 0.94% from September 22 - 26, 2025. 21 out of 29 Shenwan primary industries rose, with 2 industries rising more than 2%. The electronics, national defense and military industry, and power equipment industries led the gains [16] - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 845.82 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60.53 billion yuan, but a week - on - week decrease of 6.68%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume had an average trading volume of 97.89 billion yuan, with the first - ranked bond reaching 134.73 billion yuan [16] - About 63.62% of individual convertible bonds rose, with about 28.40% rising in the 0 - 1% range and 20.66% rising more than 2% [16] - The overall market conversion premium rate continued to rise, with different trends in different price and parity intervals. 25 industries' conversion premium rates widened, and 6 industries' conversion parities increased [22][27][31] 1.3 Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - Overall, the convertible bond market had better trading sentiment this week. However, the trading sentiment varied by trading day. On Monday and Wednesday, the stock market had better trading sentiment, while on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday, the convertible bond market had better trading sentiment [34][35] 2. Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The convertible bond market has experienced several stages, and structured opportunities are more important. The new energy sector is a key area, with balanced and relatively low - priced targets in the power equipment sector having high win - rates and odds [2][37][39] - It is too early to switch between high - and low - priced bonds in the new energy direction. It is recommended to focus on the storage sector, followed by the wind and solar sectors. Pay attention to companies like Tong 22 and Jingneng in the photovoltaic industry [40] - The top ten convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Pufa Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Nenghua Convertible Bond, Qixiang Convertible Bond 2, Jiangong Convertible Bond, and Jiayue Convertible Bond [40]