轮胎行业库存
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橡胶:震荡偏弱20260320
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 02:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, the tire industry will maintain a differentiated pattern with strong all - steel tires and weak semi - steel tires, and price trends are dominated by the cost side. Channel sentiment is the core variable affecting inventory changes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The day - session closing price of rubber main contract decreased from 16,400 yuan/ton to 16,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan; the night - session closing price decreased from 16,405 yuan/ton to 16,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 395 yuan. The trading volume increased by 4,638 hands to 303,515 hands, the holding volume decreased by 9,905 hands to 117,267 hands, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,000 tons to 125,440 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 4,171 hands to 15,325 hands [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract increased from - 150 to - 90, an increase of 60; the basis of mixed - futures main contract increased from - 1,100 to - 940, an increase of 160; the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 decreased from 100 to 60, a decrease of 40. The RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 outer - disk quotes all decreased [1] - **Substitutes and Spot Market**: The prices of Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber both increased by 100 yuan/ton. The prices of Thai standard, Thai mixed, and African 10 in the Qingdao market import rubber market decreased [1] 2. Industry News - As of March 19, 2026, the finished product inventory of Shandong tire sample enterprises showed a mixed trend. All - steel tires had significant de - stocking effects due to price increase expectations, while semi - steel tires' inventory slightly increased due to weak price increase transmission and foreign trade disturbances [2][3] - In the short term, the de - stocking trend of all - steel tires is expected to continue, but attention should be paid to the risk of terminal demand recovery falling short of expectations. The inventory of semi - steel tires may maintain a slight accumulation trend, and attention should be paid to the recovery of foreign trade orders and the follow - up of industry price increases [3]