轮胎行业格局优化

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国金证券:关税压力测试下胎企开始分化 下半年行业有望改善
智通财经网· 2025-09-18 09:16
Core Viewpoint - The tire industry is experiencing a mixed performance with stable overall demand but structural differentiation, influenced by external factors such as tariffs and raw material prices [1][5]. Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the tire sector achieved total revenue of 55.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 30% to 4 billion yuan [3]. - The overall gross profit margin was 18.4%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 7.5%, down 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue reached 28.6 billion yuan, a 9.9% year-on-year increase, while net profit was 2 billion yuan, down 33% year-on-year [3]. Market Demand and Export Trends - Global tire market demand grew by 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 918 million units, with all-steel tires increasing by 1% to 106 million units and semi-steel tires rising by 2% to 812 million units [1]. - China's passenger car tire exports remained flat at 17.2 million units, while truck and bus tire exports grew by 2% to 6.3 million units in the first half of 2025 [2]. Competitive Landscape - Leading domestic tire companies are expected to continue increasing their market share, with companies like Sailun Tire reporting a 16% year-on-year revenue growth to 17.6 billion yuan, despite a 14.9% decline in net profit [4]. - Many overseas tire companies are reducing production capacity, while domestic firms are expanding their international presence, which may allow them to capture more global market share [4]. Policy and Trade Environment - The potential implementation of anti-dumping duties by the EU could tighten short-term overseas supply, benefiting tire companies with global operations and increasing order volumes and prices [5]. - The U.S. market's import demand remains strong despite tariff impacts, with passenger car tire imports growing by 3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [2].