点击蓝字，关注我们 美国银行最新发布了一份关于软件行业的深度研报，聚焦于宏观经济不确定性对软件企业的影 响。 智通财经 APP 获悉，美国银行最新发布了一份 关于软件行业的深度研报，聚焦于宏观经济 不确定性对软件企业的影响 。研报回顾了 2022 年软件公司在高宏观不确定性下的基本面表 现，并以此为鉴，分析了不同业务模式 (消费型、订阅型及混合型) 和终端市场 (企业级、中 小型企业 / 消费者以及混合市场) 下的关键指标趋势，包括营收增长、账单增长、营业利润 率 (OpM) 以及销售和营销效率。 不同业务模式与市场领域的风险敏感性 研报深入分析了 软件公司在经济衰退中的风险特征 。2022 年的数据提供了有力的参考。当 年，软件公司的营收增长率和账单增长率均出现下滑。报告指出， 尽管宏观经济环境充满 挑战，但需求信号并非全面悲观，而是呈现出混合态势 。 在订阅模式下， 由于 70% 以上的收入来自传统订阅，这类公司具备较高的收入可见性，展 现出更强的韧性 。而消费型业务模式，其 70% 以上的收入与使用量或交易量挂钩， 在宏 观经济放缓期间，可能面临收入增长急剧放缓的风险。 从终端市场来看，专注于企业市场的 ...

Core Insights - The report from Bank of America focuses on the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the software industry, analyzing the performance of software companies in 2022 and the trends in different business models and end markets [1][6] Business Model and Market Sensitivity - Software companies with subscription models show higher revenue visibility and resilience, as over 70% of their revenue comes from traditional subscriptions [1] - Consumer-oriented business models, where over 70% of revenue is tied to usage or transaction volume, face significant risks of revenue growth slowdown during economic downturns [1][2] End Market Analysis - Companies focused on the enterprise market exhibit stability due to resilient IT spending, while those targeting small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and consumers may experience more severe impacts during economic declines [2] Tariff Implications - The report highlights potential risks from tariffs, particularly affecting e-commerce software providers, as the U.S. government imposes at least a 10% tariff on all countries, eliminating minimum tax exemptions for China and Hong Kong [3] Revenue Risk Exposure - Software companies with significant revenue exposure in regions like EMEA may be more vulnerable to local economic fluctuations and policy changes [4] Stock Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The enterprise value (EV) to next twelve months revenue (NTM Revenue) multiple for the software industry has decreased to 5.0x, below the 5-year and 10-year median of 7-8x, indicating a significant reduction in market expectations but potentially attractive current valuations [5] - Approximately 15 software companies are projected to have free cash flow (FCF) yields exceeding 8% by 2026, providing potential value support for investors [5] Conclusion and Outlook - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the software industry, emphasizing the need for careful analysis in the current macroeconomic environment [6] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with high revenue visibility, strong free cash flow generation, and competitive advantages in the enterprise market during economic downturns, while gradually increasing exposure to consumer-oriented and SMB-focused software companies as the economy improves [6]