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绿城管理控股(09979):25H1业绩承压,新拓规模增长单价稳定,保持代建领先身位
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-27 11:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 17.7% year-on-year, with a net profit drop of 48.9% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to intensified competition in the construction management industry and a decrease in management fees [1][2] - Despite the challenges, the company continues to lead the construction management market, with a new contract area of 19.89 million square meters, representing a 13.9% increase, and a stable new contract price of approximately 251 RMB per square meter [2] - The management has declared an interim dividend of 0.076 RMB per share, marking the first time in the company's history to do so, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 1.37 billion RMB and a net profit of 256 million RMB [1] - The gross profit margin for construction services was 40.0%, down 11.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s total contract area reached 127 million square meters, with a focus on core urban areas, indicating a strong future development pipeline [2] Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to be 2.87 billion RMB in 2025, 3.17 billion RMB in 2026, and 3.35 billion RMB in 2027, with net profits expected to be 466 million RMB, 544 million RMB, and 638 million RMB respectively [2][4] - The estimated EPS for the next three years is 0.23 RMB, 0.27 RMB, and 0.32 RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.8, 10.1, and 8.6 [2][4]