证券研究报告 房地产 资金增配商业标的与港资地产股 华泰研究 2025 年 7 月 22 日│中国内地 动态点评 市场对地产股分歧加大，推荐关注核心城市资源充沛的房企 7 月 21 日，截至 25Q2 末的房地产板块持仓数据公布。二季度申万房地产 指数以震荡为主，公募基金地产股持仓市值与比例均下降，北上资金地产持 仓比例小幅上升。当前市场尚在筑底企稳中，我们更看好以一线城市为代表 的核心城市复苏节奏，继续推荐具备"好信用、好城市、好产品"逻辑的地 产开发商，分红与业绩稳健的头部物管公司，以及受益于香港资产重估逻辑 的港股高股息 REITs。重点推荐：1）A 股开发：城投控股、城建发展、滨 江集团、新城控股、招商蛇口；2）港股开发：华润置地、中国海外发展、 建发国际集团、绿城中国、越秀地产；3）物管公司：华润万象生活、绿城 服务、中海物业、招商积余、保利物业；4）港股 REIT：领展房产基金。 25Q2 公募基金地产股持仓市值回落，持仓比例创出新低 根据 Wind 的数据，25Q2 房地产板块的基金持仓总市值为 484 亿元，环比 下降 12%。地产板块持仓市值占股票投资市值比重为 0.67%，环比下降 0.1 ...

英国7月Rightmove平均房屋要价指数同比 0.1%，前值 0.8%。 ...

英国7月Rightmove平均房屋要价指数环比 -1.2%，前值 -0.3%。 ...

策 华福证券 2025 年 07 月 20 日 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 中国本轮价格复苏的"跨时代"意义——产业经 济周观点 投资要点： 近期观点 1、 中国本轮价格复苏或将重构全球需求周期，产出周期，利润 分配和资本流动。 2、 中国产出体系的全球优势反映到资产定价上，表现为系统性 的 PB 上修。中国资产有望加速上行，人民币有望加速上行。 告 3、 重点看好非银、低 PB、恒生科技及军工，关注长债及微盘风 险。 团队成员 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、医疗与消费周报——政策市场双轮驱动，创新 药产业加速迈向高质量发展阶段——2025.07.20 2、沪指站上 3500 点——2025.07.14 3、市场状态高频数据库——7 月第 2 周—— 2025.07.14 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 证 券 研 究 报 告 诚信专业发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 华福证券 | 1 美国通胀隐 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [11] Core Insights - The report highlights the upgrade of the "old-for-new" housing policy in Qingdao, aiming to stabilize the real estate market and benefit residents. The new policy framework includes government guidance, policy support, and market operations, with over 4,400 applications received from citizens [8] - The Shenzhen land auction resulted in a new record for land price, with a floor price of 84,180 CNY per square meter and a premium rate of 86.1%, indicating strong market demand [5] - In Guangzhou, eight urban village reconstruction projects have commenced, expected to provide 6,000 housing units upon completion in 2027, marking a significant step in urban development [6] Market Performance - On July 14, 2025, the equity market saw most sectors rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index increasing by 0.27% and 0.15%, respectively. However, the Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 1.29% [3] - The top five performing stocks in the real estate sector included Greenland Holdings and Wolong Real Estate, with increases of 10.10% and 10.06%, respectively. Conversely, stocks like Yuhua Development and Guangda Jiabao experienced declines of -10.03% and -9.89% [4]

7月15日，全球性房地产服务和咨询顾问公司戴德梁行发布2025年上半年房地产市场情况显示：今年上半年，武汉甲级写字楼市场中 的核心商务区净吸纳量达4.4万平方米，相比去年同期增长近三成。专家认为，武汉甲级写字楼市场步入"深度运营"阶段，高科技企业已成 为武汉写字楼租赁增量需求的重要支撑。 戴德梁行武汉项目及企业服务部主管罗杨兰介绍，在新增供应放缓、需求端结构性调整的背景下，武汉甲级写字楼市场正步入"深度运 营"阶段，从"以价换量"转向 "运营赋能"，业主需敏锐觉察到市场变化和客户需求的升级，通过智能化运营、精准定位、成本重构与服务 升级等多方面实现空间的去化与利润提升。 值班编辑：冯瀚莹 图片由戴德梁行提供。 戴德梁行数据显示，上半年，武汉甲级写字楼市场新增供应10.8万平方米，推动全市核心商务区甲级写字楼总存量升至331.1万平方 米。得益于新增项目前置预租策略，核心商务区净吸纳量达4.4万平方米，同比增幅29.7％。分行业来看，TMT、专业服务业和金融三大甲 级写字楼传统客户仍然是支撑市场存量去化的主要需求来源。 从成交驱动因素来看，搬迁是主要的驱动因素，占比65.8％。TMT企业在武汉甲级写字楼新设需求 ...

7月15日，全球性房地产服务和咨询顾问公司戴德梁行发布2025年武汉上半年土拍与住宅市场情况报告显示：今年上半年，武汉土地 市场成交金额相比去年同期升高8.6％，武汉商品住宅市场总成交面积相比去年同期上升约2.2％。业内专家认为，上半年武汉房地产市场 整体呈现出稳中向好态势。 图片由戴德梁行提供。 数据显示，涉宅用地是成交的主力，占上半年成交面积的五成。其中，纯住宅用地主要成交区域为黄陂区、江夏区和沌口片，商业用 地的成交区域主要位于武昌区、蔡甸区和东湖高新区。从区域来看，长江新区、沌口片成为供地"主战场"，合计占上半年武汉市土拍面积 的一半。从拿地企业性质看，央企占比72.4％，仍然是拿地主力。 戴德梁行武汉公司总经理周星介绍，2025年上半年武汉土地市场热度较之前有所回升。在以打造高品质好房子为核心竞争的新一轮房 地产发展趋势下，核心区域涉宅用地仍对开发商有相当吸引力，民企拿地参与度明显有所提高，主城区核心地段"一地难求"，多宗主城区 优质宅地历经数十轮竞拍，溢价成交。 同时，数据还显示，上半年武汉商品住宅市场总成交面积328.2万平方米，同比上升约2.2％；平均成交价格15636元／平方米，较2024 ...

四、风险提示 与 2025 年半年度报告中披露的最终数据可能存在差异。 敬请投资者谨慎决策，注意投资风险。 深圳世联行集团股份有限公司 董 事 会 二〇二五年七月十五日 | 证券代码：002285 证券简称：世联行 | | | | | 公告编号：2025-025 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 深圳世联行集团股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 | | | | | | | | 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 | | | | | | | | 一、本期业绩预计情况 | | | | | | | | 项 目 上年同期 | 本报告期 | | | | | | | 归属于上市公司股东的 | | | | | | | | 亏损：700 万元–1,300 | | 万元 | | 盈利：1,518.42 | | 万元 | | 净利润 | | | | | | | | 扣除非经常性损益后的 | | | | | | | | 亏损：3,800 万元–5,000 | | 万元 | | 亏损：5,255. ...

Core Insights - The key to understanding the capital cycle is recognizing how changes in capital allocation within an industry affect future returns, emphasizing the importance of supply-side changes over demand analysis [3] - Industry concentration exhibits an inverted U-shaped distribution throughout different stages of the corporate lifecycle, transitioning from high competition to oligopoly, with dividend yields increasing as companies evolve from recovery to maturity [3] - Current recommended secondary industries include aquaculture, animal health, components, consumer electronics, communication services, advertising, television broadcasting, real estate services, shipping ports, logistics, and railroads [3] Section Summaries 01 Capital Cycle: Supply and Concentration Considerations - The capital cycle framework prioritizes supply and concentration changes over economic conditions, indicating that supply fluctuations drive industry profitability [4] 02 Historical Positioning of Capital Cycles in Sub-Industries - The report categorizes 124 sub-industries based on their capital cycle status from Q3 2008 to Q1 2025, using concentration, profit growth, and capital expenditure growth as key indicators [27] 03 Current Capital Cycle Stages of Various Industries - The analysis identifies industries in optimal or suboptimal capital cycle phases, allowing for targeted investment recommendations [39] 04 Capital Cycle Principles and Case Studies in the US and Japan - The report discusses the principles of capital cycles in the US and Japan, providing case studies that illustrate the application of these principles across different market environments [4] 05 Viewing Capital Cycles Through the Lens of "Anti-Overwork" - The report suggests that the current economic environment, characterized by a push against overwork, influences capital allocation and industry dynamics [4]

Group 1 - The US stock market opened with all three major indices declining, with the Dow Jones down 0.54%, Nasdaq down 0.32%, and S&P 500 down 0.43% [2][3] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Futu Holdings rising over 1.5% and Beike falling over 2% [2][3] - Major tech companies mostly declined, with Google down over 0.5% as it plans to offer cloud service discounts to the US government [2][3] Group 2 - US stock index futures were all down before the market opened, with Dow futures down 0.62%, S&P 500 futures down 0.55%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.46% [4][5] - European major indices also experienced declines, with France's CAC40 down 0.81%, Germany's DAX down 0.73%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.35% [6][7] Group 3 - Spot gold saw an intraday increase of 1%, currently priced at $3357.84 per ounce [8] - Canada's employment numbers for June increased by 83,100, with the unemployment rate at 6.9%, down from the previous 7.0% [9]