Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, prices gradually declined, and the pre - holiday freight rate drive was weak. The market is gambling on the price - holding expectation of relatively low capacity pressure in March. The near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaics may disrupt shipping schedules and shipping company pricing strategies. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and the short - selling direction has an advantage before the Spring Festival. The delivery of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the far - month contracts are expected to fluctuate greatly due to the uncertainty of the Suez Canal's reopening time [1][4][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of January 29, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 64,530.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 37,978.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts were 1717.50, 1249.70, 1576.00, 1645.40, 1151.20, and 1413.70 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - On January 23, 2026, the SCFI prices were 1595 US dollars/TEU for Shanghai - Europe route, 2084 US dollars/FEU for Shanghai - US West route, and 2896 US dollars/FEU for Shanghai - US East route. On January 26, 2026, the SCFIS was 1859.31 points for Shanghai - Europe and 1294.32 points for Shanghai - US West [6] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. For ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, 80 ships with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU were delivered, and for ships over 17,000 TEU, 13 ships with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU were delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 781,200 TEU (53 ships) are expected to be delivered in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 210,400 TEU (9 ships) are expected to be delivered in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small [2][3] - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in February was 283,000 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9 were 340,000, 342,000, 261,100, and 188,300 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March was 295,800 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 10 - 14 were 252,400, 338,600, 348,700, 285,200, and 254,500 TEU respectively. There were 13 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors affect shipping routes. Maersk announced on January 15 that it would resume the Suez Canal route for its MECL service as the stability in the Red Sea improved. CMA has decided to divert ships on FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal due to the complex international situation [2][6] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaics and other products by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping schedules of related industries and further affect shipping companies' pricing strategies. It is necessary to monitor whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5]