Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The loading rate of the European route fleet has slightly rebounded. The supply pressure in the middle of October has eased, and the possibility of freight rates stabilizing has increased. The congestion at Chinese ports has slightly improved, while the congestion at European ports may improve, and the congestion at Southeast Asian ports fluctuates [7][11][35] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. European Route Loading Rate Tracking - W37 European route fleet average loading rate from Chinese ports was 90.4%, up 0.8% from the previous period. W36 Asian departure loading rate was 96.4%, unchanged from the previous period. The loading difference between Asia and China was about 6.8%. Different alliances had different loading rate changes [7] 2. European Route Ship Schedule and Capacity - The average weekly capacity in October was 26.7 million TEU, basically the same as last year. The supply pressure in the middle of the month eased, and the possibility of freight rates stabilizing increased. There were new blank sailings and cancelled extra sailings [11] 3. Ship Schedule Delays and Spot Overview - W38 had 3 delayed sailings. The SCFIS (European route) index fell 12.9%. The actual departure capacity from Shanghai Port was 31.0 million TEU, with 14% from delayed sailings in W36 [15] 4. Ship Schedule Delay Observation and Early Warning - There were many delayed sailings in different weeks and alliances, and early warnings were issued for some routes in different weeks [17][20][22][27][31] 5. Related Port Congestion Data - Chinese ports' congestion improved slightly, but may be affected by typhoons. Southeast Asian ports' congestion fluctuated. European ports' congestion may improve, but German ports' pressure continued [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by the fundamentals in the short term. With demand not significantly improving, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. - The implementation of the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter. Although the euro - zone economic data has improved, the overall situation is not optimistic. - The uncertainty of tariffs is too high. Despite short - term improvements, the market is generally in a wait - and - see mode. - Freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and this traditional peak season may show the characteristic of "not a real peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly. [6][39] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures rose collectively this week. The main contract EC2510 closed up 3.4%, and the far - month contracts rose between 3 - 10%. - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1773.6, down 216.6 points from last week, a 10.9% decline. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract declined this week. [6][9][16] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by President Trump were illegal, which is bullish for the market. - MSC plans to adjust the capacity of Asia - to - Europe routes from week 39 to week 41 due to expected slowdown in demand during the Golden Week, with four voyages cancelled, which is neutral to bearish. - The implementation of the US - Japan trade agreement and Japan's plan to increase US rice purchases are bearish. - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity in most parts of the US has hardly changed, which is neutral. [19] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts converged this week. - The export container freight rate index declined this week. - Container shipping capacity declined in the short term. - The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors. - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly this week. - The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated mainly. [22][24][28][32] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures rose collectively this week, but the spot index continued to decline, pulling down the futures prices. - The "price war" has put continuous pressure on the fundamentals. - The weakening US labor market has increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut this month. - The euro - zone internal demand is still weak. - Overall, the freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly, and factors such as the actual follow - up of shipping companies' cabin opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade - war related information need to be continuously monitored. [38][39]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by the fundamentals in the short term. With the demand not significantly improved, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side in the future, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. The freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly [6][7][41] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This week, most of the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The main contract EC2510 closed down 4.76%, and the far - month contracts fell between 4% and 7%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 2180.17, down 55.31 points from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. The current SCFI European Line recorded 1668 last Friday, further dropping 152, with a weekly decline of 8.35%. The continuous decline of spot indicators drove down the futures prices. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract declined this week [6][10][14] 2. News Review and Analysis - The EU Commission proposed two legislative proposals to implement the EU - US joint statement on tariffs. The EU will cancel some tariffs on US industrial products, give preferential market access to some seafood and non - sensitive agricultural products, and extend the duty - free treatment for lobsters. The US will reduce the tariffs on EU automobiles and parts from 27.5% to 15% and implement zero or near - zero tariffs on some products from September 1st, which is bullish for the market [17] - US President Trump said that trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea were completed and that he would impose high tariffs on imported furniture, which is neutral to bearish [17] - New York Fed President Williams said it was appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time, which is bullish [17] - The Trump administration outlined a plan to impose 50% tariffs on Indian products, which is bearish [17] 3. Weekly Market Data - This week, the basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts converged. The export container freight rate index declined. The container shipping capacity decreased in the short term. The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated mainly [24][26][30] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) mostly declined. The continuous decline of spot indicators drove down the futures prices. The "price war" made the fundamentals under continuous pressure. The US employment data was far below expectations, and the interest - rate cut expectation soared. The internal demand in the eurozone was weak. Overall, freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to continuously monitor factors such as the actual follow - up increase of the shipping companies' opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information [40][41]

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating situation in the Middle East may impact freight rates, while short-term demand outlook remains optimistic, leading to the iron ore main contract reaching its highest level in over a week. However, prices have not effectively broken through, raising questions about when the current fluctuation range will be overcome [1] Group 1 - The Middle East situation is intensifying, which could affect freight rates [1] - There is an expectation of improved short-term demand prospects [1] - The iron ore main contract has hit its highest level in over a week [1] Group 2 - Despite reaching a peak, prices have not effectively broken through the current fluctuation range [1] - The market is questioning when the price will break out of the current oscillation [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for freight rates to rise due to a surge in shipping demand driven by a trade window period and the approach of the traditional peak season [1] Group 1: Freight Rates and Demand - There is an expectation that freight rates may experience an increase as a result of heightened shipping activity [1] - The upcoming traditional peak season is anticipated to further amplify this demand for shipping services [1] Group 2: Shipping Trends - The article raises questions about when the peak arrival period at ports will occur, indicating a focus on logistics and supply chain dynamics [1] - The current trade window period is identified as a catalyst for a rush in shipping activities, suggesting a temporary spike in demand [1]