Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, prices gradually declined, and the pre - holiday freight rate drive was weak. The market is gambling on the price - holding expectation of relatively low capacity pressure in March. The near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaics may disrupt shipping schedules and shipping company pricing strategies. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and the short - selling direction has an advantage before the Spring Festival. The delivery of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the far - month contracts are expected to fluctuate greatly due to the uncertainty of the Suez Canal's reopening time [1][4][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of January 29, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 64,530.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 37,978.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts were 1717.50, 1249.70, 1576.00, 1645.40, 1151.20, and 1413.70 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - On January 23, 2026, the SCFI prices were 1595 US dollars/TEU for Shanghai - Europe route, 2084 US dollars/FEU for Shanghai - US West route, and 2896 US dollars/FEU for Shanghai - US East route. On January 26, 2026, the SCFIS was 1859.31 points for Shanghai - Europe and 1294.32 points for Shanghai - US West [6] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. For ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, 80 ships with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU were delivered, and for ships over 17,000 TEU, 13 ships with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU were delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 781,200 TEU (53 ships) are expected to be delivered in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 210,400 TEU (9 ships) are expected to be delivered in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small [2][3] - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in February was 283,000 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9 were 340,000, 342,000, 261,100, and 188,300 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March was 295,800 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 10 - 14 were 252,400, 338,600, 348,700, 285,200, and 254,500 TEU respectively. There were 13 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors affect shipping routes. Maersk announced on January 15 that it would resume the Suez Canal route for its MECL service as the stability in the Red Sea improved. CMA has decided to divert ships on FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal due to the complex international situation [2][6] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaics and other products by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping schedules of related industries and further affect shipping companies' pricing strategies. It is necessary to monitor whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pre - holiday freight rate drivers are weak, and attention should be paid to Maersk's WEEK7 quotes. The market is speculating on the price - holding expectations of relatively low pressure on March's shipping capacity. The near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. In normal years, April and October are the months with the lowest freight rates. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect shipping companies' pricing strategies. Investors should be cautious when participating in the 04 contract. Attention should be paid to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe can significantly increase in February and March and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 4 - month contract is bearish. The uncertainty of the Suez Canal's resumption time and the relatively small delivery of ultra - large ships in 2026 will cause greater fluctuations in the far - month contracts [1][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of January 26, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 63,443.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 51,020.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts were 1726.70, 1200.20, 1447.60, 1524.00, 1114.20, and 1373.50 respectively [7]. II. Spot Prices - On January 23, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1595 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2084 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2896 US dollars/FEU. On January 26, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1859.31 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1294.32 points [7]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU have been delivered, and 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 277,672 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 781,200 TEU (53 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 210,400 TEU (9 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU will be delivered in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in February was 283,000 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK6/7/8/9 were 340,000, 342,000, 261,100, and 188,300 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March was 295,800 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK10/11/12/13/14 were 252,400, 338,600, 348,700, 285,200, and 254,500 TEU respectively. There were 13 blank sailings in February (6 by the OA alliance, 6 by the PA alliance, and 1 by the Gemini alliance) and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. IV. Supply Chain - The stability in the Red Sea area has improved. On January 15, Maersk announced that it would resume the Suez Canal route for its MECL service to improve transportation efficiency on the premise of ensuring safety. CMA has decided to divert the ships deployed on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal [2][6]. V. Demand and European Economy - In December and January, the cargo volume was at a relatively high level during the year. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect shipping companies' pricing strategies. Attention should be paid to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe can significantly increase in February and March and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily focus on the shipping and logistics industry, particularly container and bulk shipping sectors, with specific references to various shipping companies and their pricing strategies. Key Points and Arguments Shipping Rates and Contracts - December contract delivery pricing is expected to be around 1,630 points, with potential ceilings between 1,670 and 1,690 points due to suboptimal delivery outcomes from shipping companies like Maersk [2][6] - January pricing shows significant divergence among shipping companies, with expectations ranging from 1,300 to 1,700 points, suggesting a strategy of light valuation and heavy driving [2][7] - VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates are performing strongly, while Suezmax rates are average; LR2 rates have surged to $45,000 per day, influenced by the strength of European naphtha and diesel spreads [2][13] Container Shipping Insights - Container shipping rates on the US routes have stabilized, with improved loading rates for shipowners; however, there is market caution regarding price increases planned by companies like Hangzhou [2][15] - European route pricing for the second week of December ranges from $1,900 to $2,400, with an average of $2,250, reflecting a decrease from the previous week [3] Pricing Strategies of Major Shipping Companies - Maersk and CMA CGM announced price increases for late December to $3,500, but actual FAK (Freight All Kinds) prices were lower at $2,640 and $2,440 respectively [4] - The PA alliance is expected to follow suit with price increases, but faces challenges due to insufficient long-term cargo volumes [5] Future Price Expectations - The first delivery index for December contracts is projected at 1,630 points, with potential difficulties in maintaining current prices due to Maersk's underperformance in spot cargo [6][9] - There is a possibility of unexpected performance in December pricing, contingent on cargo releases in mid-December [9] Impact of Geopolitical Events - The recent attack on the CPC pipeline has raised concerns, particularly affecting European oil supply and Suezmax rates [10] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict could influence VLCC demand depending on the status of sanctions and economic viability for China and India to purchase discounted Russian oil [11][12] Bulk Shipping Market Performance - Cape-sized bulk carriers have shown strong performance, with rates nearing $38,000 per day, the highest in two years, expected to continue for over two weeks [14] - The demand for iron ore and bauxite is projected to grow, with significant contributions from major mining companies, leading to an overall demand growth of approximately 2.3% for Cape-sized vessels in 2026 [16][17] Stock Market and Investment Outlook - Recent stock market fluctuations are attributed to sentiment rather than fundamental changes, with predictions for shipping rates in 2026 causing sell-off pressures [18] - Long-term investors are advised to focus on building positions during market dips, as the outlook for the shipping sector remains positive despite short-term volatility [18] Additional Important Insights - The shipping industry is experiencing a complex interplay of pricing strategies, geopolitical influences, and market dynamics that require careful analysis for investment opportunities and risk assessment [2][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The loading rate of the European route fleet has slightly rebounded. The supply pressure in the middle of October has eased, and the possibility of freight rates stabilizing has increased. The congestion at Chinese ports has slightly improved, while the congestion at European ports may improve, and the congestion at Southeast Asian ports fluctuates [7][11][35] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. European Route Loading Rate Tracking - W37 European route fleet average loading rate from Chinese ports was 90.4%, up 0.8% from the previous period. W36 Asian departure loading rate was 96.4%, unchanged from the previous period. The loading difference between Asia and China was about 6.8%. Different alliances had different loading rate changes [7] 2. European Route Ship Schedule and Capacity - The average weekly capacity in October was 26.7 million TEU, basically the same as last year. The supply pressure in the middle of the month eased, and the possibility of freight rates stabilizing increased. There were new blank sailings and cancelled extra sailings [11] 3. Ship Schedule Delays and Spot Overview - W38 had 3 delayed sailings. The SCFIS (European route) index fell 12.9%. The actual departure capacity from Shanghai Port was 31.0 million TEU, with 14% from delayed sailings in W36 [15] 4. Ship Schedule Delay Observation and Early Warning - There were many delayed sailings in different weeks and alliances, and early warnings were issued for some routes in different weeks [17][20][22][27][31] 5. Related Port Congestion Data - Chinese ports' congestion improved slightly, but may be affected by typhoons. Southeast Asian ports' congestion fluctuated. European ports' congestion may improve, but German ports' pressure continued [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by the fundamentals in the short term. With demand not significantly improving, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. - The implementation of the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter. Although the euro - zone economic data has improved, the overall situation is not optimistic. - The uncertainty of tariffs is too high. Despite short - term improvements, the market is generally in a wait - and - see mode. - Freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and this traditional peak season may show the characteristic of "not a real peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly. [6][39] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures rose collectively this week. The main contract EC2510 closed up 3.4%, and the far - month contracts rose between 3 - 10%. - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1773.6, down 216.6 points from last week, a 10.9% decline. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract declined this week. [6][9][16] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by President Trump were illegal, which is bullish for the market. - MSC plans to adjust the capacity of Asia - to - Europe routes from week 39 to week 41 due to expected slowdown in demand during the Golden Week, with four voyages cancelled, which is neutral to bearish. - The implementation of the US - Japan trade agreement and Japan's plan to increase US rice purchases are bearish. - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity in most parts of the US has hardly changed, which is neutral. [19] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts converged this week. - The export container freight rate index declined this week. - Container shipping capacity declined in the short term. - The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors. - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly this week. - The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated mainly. [22][24][28][32] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures rose collectively this week, but the spot index continued to decline, pulling down the futures prices. - The "price war" has put continuous pressure on the fundamentals. - The weakening US labor market has increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut this month. - The euro - zone internal demand is still weak. - Overall, the freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly, and factors such as the actual follow - up of shipping companies' cabin opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade - war related information need to be continuously monitored. [38][39]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by the fundamentals in the short term. With the demand not significantly improved, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side in the future, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. The freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly [6][7][41] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This week, most of the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The main contract EC2510 closed down 4.76%, and the far - month contracts fell between 4% and 7%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 2180.17, down 55.31 points from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. The current SCFI European Line recorded 1668 last Friday, further dropping 152, with a weekly decline of 8.35%. The continuous decline of spot indicators drove down the futures prices. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract declined this week [6][10][14] 2. News Review and Analysis - The EU Commission proposed two legislative proposals to implement the EU - US joint statement on tariffs. The EU will cancel some tariffs on US industrial products, give preferential market access to some seafood and non - sensitive agricultural products, and extend the duty - free treatment for lobsters. The US will reduce the tariffs on EU automobiles and parts from 27.5% to 15% and implement zero or near - zero tariffs on some products from September 1st, which is bullish for the market [17] - US President Trump said that trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea were completed and that he would impose high tariffs on imported furniture, which is neutral to bearish [17] - New York Fed President Williams said it was appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time, which is bullish [17] - The Trump administration outlined a plan to impose 50% tariffs on Indian products, which is bearish [17] 3. Weekly Market Data - This week, the basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts converged. The export container freight rate index declined. The container shipping capacity decreased in the short term. The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated mainly [24][26][30] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) mostly declined. The continuous decline of spot indicators drove down the futures prices. The "price war" made the fundamentals under continuous pressure. The US employment data was far below expectations, and the interest - rate cut expectation soared. The internal demand in the eurozone was weak. Overall, freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to continuously monitor factors such as the actual follow - up increase of the shipping companies' opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information [40][41]

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating situation in the Middle East may impact freight rates, while short-term demand outlook remains optimistic, leading to the iron ore main contract reaching its highest level in over a week. However, prices have not effectively broken through, raising questions about when the current fluctuation range will be overcome [1] Group 1 - The Middle East situation is intensifying, which could affect freight rates [1] - There is an expectation of improved short-term demand prospects [1] - The iron ore main contract has hit its highest level in over a week [1] Group 2 - Despite reaching a peak, prices have not effectively broken through the current fluctuation range [1] - The market is questioning when the price will break out of the current oscillation [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for freight rates to rise due to a surge in shipping demand driven by a trade window period and the approach of the traditional peak season [1] Group 1: Freight Rates and Demand - There is an expectation that freight rates may experience an increase as a result of heightened shipping activity [1] - The upcoming traditional peak season is anticipated to further amplify this demand for shipping services [1] Group 2: Shipping Trends - The article raises questions about when the peak arrival period at ports will occur, indicating a focus on logistics and supply chain dynamics [1] - The current trade window period is identified as a catalyst for a rush in shipping activities, suggesting a temporary spike in demand [1]