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李宁(02331.HK):聚焦奥运周期 品牌势能回归 关注业绩拐点
Ge Long Hui· 2026-01-22 06:33
Core Viewpoint - The signing of the Chinese Olympic Committee by Li Ning in the first half of 2025 marks the beginning of a new product and marketing cycle for the company, with potential for stock price increase if there is improvement in revenue or profit in the medium to long term [1] Industry Trends - The demand for sports footwear and apparel remains resilient, with increasing diversification and specialization in sports participation among residents [2] - The market size for sports apparel in China is projected to reach 260.2 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 9% expected from 2025 to 2029 [2] Brand Highlights - The Olympic cycle is expected to enhance the company's brand strength, with increased sponsorship in niche categories [2] - Li Ning has signed with the Chinese Olympic Committee in the first half of 2025, aiming to boost brand awareness through diverse Olympic marketing [2] - The company is increasing support for running and basketball categories, with a growing number of marathon sponsorships and events in niche sports like badminton and pickleball [2] Product Highlights - Professional running shoes are driving growth, with running and training categories showing strong performance [3] - In the first half of 2025, the revenue shares for running, basketball, training, and lifestyle products were 34%, 17%, 16%, and 29% respectively, with running and training categories each growing by 15% [3] - The company is focusing on core products like Feidian, Chitu, and Chaoying to drive sales, while also enhancing R&D for the training series [3] Channel Highlights - The company has 4,821 franchise stores and 1,278 direct-operated stores as of the first half of 2025, with plans to open Olympic gold standard and outdoor series specialty stores [3] - E-commerce revenue grew by 7% year-on-year to 4.3 billion yuan, accounting for 29% of total revenue, indicating a stable growth strategy in the e-commerce channel [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.742 billion, 2.901 billion, and 3.302 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of -9%, +5.8%, and +13.8% respectively [4] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 17 times for 2026, with potential for valuation improvement as the company's Olympic marketing strategy and product optimization progress [4]