李宁 20251231 摘要 Q&A 李宁公司财务状况良好，EBITDA 保持稳定，净现比高，账面净现金超 190 亿元，占市值比例高。公司增加分红，显示其财务实力和对股东的 回报意愿。这些财务数据为公司未来发展提供了坚实基础。 李宁跑步品类逆势而上，成为第一大品类，占比 34%。运动生活品类占 比 29%，篮球品类占比下降。公司需调整运动生活品类定位，并推动篮 球品类复苏，以实现整体增长。品类结构变化影响公司未来增长战略。 李宁提高营销费用率至 10%以上，通过赞助中国奥委会和马拉松赛事， 并发布新科技"超泵胶囊"增强品牌形象。在上海马拉松中，李宁跑鞋 在破 3 小时跑者中的上脚率超过耐克，表明营销策略有效。营销投入增 加旨在提升品牌竞争力和市场份额。 从品牌市占度来看，运动户外行业有哪些变化？ 从品牌市占度来看，运动户外行业呈现出头部集中度分散化的趋势。前两大品 牌（CR2）的市场集中度从 2019 年的 38%下降到 2025 年的 24%，前十大 品牌（CR10）的市场集中度从 76%降至 68%。这表明细分品牌的增长速度显 著高于综合性头部品牌。此外，从 2019 年至 2021 年间国际综合品牌份 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：林骥川/杨润渤/宋习缘 公司近况 李宁品牌全球首家龙店在12 月14 日于北京三里屯太古里开业，同时李宁推出全新荣耀金标系列产品， 我们认为，此举是公司在奥运产品矩阵布局上的进一步强化。 龙店展示品牌新形象。李宁龙店将李宁品牌具有代表性的设计符号与传统文化链接，同时也强调了李宁 品牌作为中国奥委会官方合作伙伴的身份。门店内李宁围绕"领奖时刻"、"竞技时刻"、"生活时刻"三大 主题为消费者全面诠释品牌文化与产品专业性。 推出全新荣耀金标系列，满足消费者多功能多场景穿搭需求。李宁荣耀金标系列将李宁的专业运动科技 与消费者日常通勤需求相融合，以时尚简约的设计为消费者的日常都市通勤提供新的高品质选择。我们 认为，荣耀金标系列将会丰富李宁的产品矩阵，在强调核心运动功能性产品外，辐射更多的消费者。 核心产品顺利迭代。在全新产品系列之外，李宁在近日还推出了新的跑鞋中底科技"超胶囊"，同时也推 出了核心跑鞋产品"飞电"、"赤兔"的全新版本。李宁赞助的运动员在2025 年频繁登上东京半马1、瓦伦 西亚马拉松2等国内外顶级赛事的领奖台，展现了强大的整体实力。我们认为核心功能性的持续迭代， 能够让李宁持续在 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，随着新奥运周期开始，李宁(02331)逐步在新的产品系列和新的店 型上不断尝试，有望持续提升品牌在消费者心中的影响力。该行维持2025/26年EPS预测0.92/1.07元不 变，当前股价对应18/16倍2025/26年市盈率;同时由于新店型和产品的推出，该行看好李宁品牌未来2-3 年的增长趋势，上调目标价4%至23.61港元，对应24/20倍2025/26年市盈率，较当前股价有29%的上行空 间，维持跑赢行业评级。 中金主要观点如下： 公司近况 核心产品顺利迭代 在全新产品系列之外，李宁在近日还推出了新的跑鞋中底科技"超䨻胶囊"，同时也推出了核心跑鞋产 品"飞电"、"赤兔"的全新版本。李宁赞助的运动员在2025年频繁登上东京半马、瓦伦西亚马拉松等国内 外顶级赛事的领奖台，展现了强大的整体实力。该行认为核心功能性的持续迭代，能够让李宁持续在专 业运动领域保持领先地位，牢固品牌的运动基因。 风险提示：消费者喜爱度降低，行业竞争加剧，终端零售环境不及预期。 龙店展示品牌新形象 李宁龙店将李宁品牌具有代表性的设计符号与传统文化链接，同时也强调了李宁品牌作为中国奥委会官 方合作伙伴 ...

中金发布研报称，随着新奥运周期开始，李宁(02331)逐步在新的产品系列和新的店型上不断尝试，有 望持续提升品牌在消费者心中的影响力。该行维持2025/26年EPS预测0.92/1.07元不变，当前股价对应 18/16倍2025/26年市盈率;同时由于新店型和产品的推出，该行看好李宁品牌未来2-3年的增长趋势，上 调目标价4%至23.61港元，对应24/20倍2025/26年市盈率，较当前股价有29%的上行空间，维持跑赢行业 评级。 中金主要观点如下： 龙店展示品牌新形象 公司近况 李宁品牌全球首家龙店在12月14日于北京三里屯太古里开业，同时李宁推出全新荣耀金标系列产品，该 行认为，此举是公司在奥运产品矩阵布局上的进一步强化。 核心产品顺利迭代 在全新产品系列之外，李宁在近日还推出了新的跑鞋中底科技"超 胶囊"，同时也推出了核心跑鞋产 品"飞电"、"赤兔"的全新版本。李宁赞助的运动员在2025年频繁登上东京半马、瓦伦西亚马拉松等国内 外顶级赛事的领奖台，展现了强大的整体实力。该行认为核心功能性的持续迭代，能够让李宁持续在专 业运动领域保持领先地位，牢固品牌的运动基因。 风险提示：消费者喜爱度降低，行业竞争加 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's 2025 H1 performance shows a modest revenue growth of 3.3% year-on-year, with challenges in net profit and a focus on e-commerce as a key growth driver [1][2][3] Revenue Performance - The group's revenue for 2025 H1 reached 14.82 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to equity holders of 1.74 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.0% decline year-on-year [1] - Footwear revenue increased by 4.93% to 8.23 billion yuan, accounting for 55.55% of total revenue, driven by strong sales of core running shoe IPs [1] - Apparel revenue decreased by 3.39% to 5.19 billion yuan, representing 35.05% of total revenue, impacted by reduced foot traffic and deeper discounts [1] - Equipment and accessories revenue grew by 23.7% to 1.39 billion yuan, with badminton products performing particularly well [1] Channel Performance - E-commerce revenue grew by 7.4%, becoming the largest source of revenue growth [1] - Wholesale revenue increased by 4.4%, with a total of 4,821 stores at the end of the period, netting an increase of 77 stores [1] - Direct sales revenue declined by 3.4%, with 1,278 stores at the end of the period, reflecting a net decrease of 217 stores due to the closure of inefficient outlets [1] Profitability and Costs - Gross margin for 2025 H1 was 50.0%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased discounts in direct sales channels [2] - Net profit margin was 11.7%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with expenses and impairment losses being significant detractors [2] - Advertising and marketing expense ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 9.0%, indicating continued investment in market presence [2] Operational Efficiency - Inventory decreased year-on-year, with a stock-to-sales ratio of 3.6 months and 87% of inventory being new products, maintaining a leading position in the industry [2] - Operating cash flow was 2.41 billion yuan, exceeding net profit, providing a solid cushion for market fluctuations and strategic investments [2] Future Outlook - For the full year 2025, the company expects revenue to remain flat, focusing on core product categories and enhancing store efficiency [3] - The company aims to solidify its professional sports brand image while preparing for structural market opportunities with healthy inventory and cash flow [3] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.605 billion, 2.985 billion, and 3.244 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of -13.54%, 14.60%, and 8.67% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Company reported a revenue increase of 3.3% year-on-year for H1 2025, but net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 11% [1] - The company declared a dividend of 33.59 cents per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 50% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2025 reached 14.817 billion RMB, with wholesale revenue growing by 5.0% to 6.481 billion RMB, while direct sales revenue fell by 4.3% to 3.234 billion RMB [1] - E-commerce revenue increased by 6.5% to 5.102 billion RMB, maintaining good growth [1] - Gross margin for H1 2025 was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations of further pressure on gross margin due to increased discounts [1] Product Category Performance - Growth was primarily driven by running and training categories, both achieving a 15% increase in revenue [2] - Sales of professional running shoes exceeded 14 million pairs, with core series sales surpassing 5.26 million pairs [2] - The sports lifestyle category declined by 7%, and the basketball category saw a 20% revenue drop, indicating ongoing adjustments [2] Store and Channel Strategy - As of June 30, the total number of stores was 6,099, with a net decrease of 18 stores since the beginning of the year [2] - The company continues to optimize its channel structure, with a focus on planned new store openings [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to face pressure from the consumer environment, but H1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 [3] - The target price for 2025 is set at 22.6 HKD, based on a 22 times PE ratio [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a 3% revenue growth but an 11% decline in profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on optimizing channel structure and investing in marketing resources for events like the Olympics, while maintaining a target for stable revenue and high single-digit net profit margin by 2025 [1][3] Revenue and Profit Performance - The company's revenue increased by 3.3% year-on-year to 14.817 billion, while net profit decreased by 11% to 1.737 billion; the board proposed an interim dividend of 0.3359 per share, with a payout ratio of 50% [1][3] Category Performance - In the first half of 2025, the running and training categories achieved a 15% growth, with professional running shoes sales exceeding 14 million pairs; however, basketball sales declined by 20% [1][2] Channel Performance - E-commerce revenue grew by 7% to 4.3 billion (29% of total), while offline direct sales fell by 3% to 3.4 billion (23% of total); franchise revenue increased by 4% to 6.9 billion (47% of total) [2] Store Performance - As of June 2025, the total number of stores was 7,534, a decrease of 143 stores year-on-year; the average store size for flagship stores was 242 square meters, with an average monthly sales of 300,000, slightly down from 310,000 in the first half of 2024 [2] Inventory Management - The company's channel inventory grew at a low single-digit rate year-on-year, maintaining a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio of 4 months, with 82% of channel inventory being new products within 6 months [2] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50%, while the management and sales expense ratio fell by 0.7 percentage points to 34.2%; the operating profit margin also declined by 0.2 percentage points to 16.5% [3] Future Projections - The management maintains a target for stable revenue by 2025, with projected revenues of 28.74 billion, 29.96 billion, and 31.11 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 0%, 4%, and 4% respectively; net profit projections are 2.38 billion, 2.53 billion, and 2.72 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 7%, and 7% [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady revenue growth in H1 2025, but a decline in net profit due to various financial challenges, including impairment losses and increased tax rates [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.817 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.737 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.0% [1]. - The company's EBITDA for H1 2025 was 3.513 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year growth [1]. Product Performance - Revenue from footwear, apparel, accessories, and equipment in H1 2025 was 8.231 billion, 5.193 billion, 1.393 billion, and 0.139 billion yuan respectively, with footwear showing a growth of 4.9% [2]. - The sales volume of core running shoes exceeded 5.26 million pairs in H1 2025, indicating strong performance in the running category [2]. Channel Performance - Direct sales revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 3.4% to 3.383 billion yuan, while e-commerce revenue grew by 7.4% to 4.300 billion yuan [2]. - The company closed 33 direct stores, ending H1 2025 with 1,278 stores, while the wholesale channel saw a revenue increase of 4.4% to 6.883 billion yuan [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 50.0%, down 0.4 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of high-margin direct sales [3]. - The operating profit margin declined by 0.3 percentage points to 16.5%, and the net profit margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 11.7% [3]. Inventory and Cash Flow - As of the end of H1 2025, the company's inventory amounted to 2.428 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase year-on-year, with inventory turnover days at 61 days, a decrease of 1 day [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 2.411 billion yuan, down 11.7% year-on-year [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady revenue and operating profit growth, with strong performance in the running category and healthy inventory levels [4]. - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.02, 1.14, and 1.21 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.5, 15.8, and 14.9 times [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 22.6 for 2025, reflecting a 22x PE ratio [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's revenue for the first half of 2025 increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching RMB 148.17 billion. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11% [1][2]. - The company declared a dividend of RMB 0.3359 per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 50% [1][4]. - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by the running and training categories, which saw a 15% increase in sales. In contrast, the basketball category experienced a 20% decline [3][4]. Revenue Performance - The wholesale business recorded a 5.0% increase in revenue to RMB 64.81 billion, while direct sales revenue fell by 4.3% to RMB 32.34 billion. E-commerce revenue grew by 6.5% to RMB 51.02 billion, indicating strong performance in online sales [2][3]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased discounting pressures in both online and offline channels [2][4]. Product Category Analysis - The running and training categories led growth, with professional running shoe sales exceeding 14 million pairs in the first half of the year. The three core series—Ultra Light, Red Rabbit, and Flying Electric—together sold over 5.26 million pairs [3][4]. - The sports lifestyle category saw a decline of 7%, while the basketball category is undergoing adjustments, with expectations of future growth following the signing of a new brand ambassador [3][4]. Store and Channel Strategy - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of Li Ning's retail stores was 6,099, reflecting a net decrease of 18 stores since the beginning of the year. The company continues to optimize its channel structure and plans to expand new store layouts as per its strategy [3][4]. Financial Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be RMB 0.94, RMB 1.07, and RMB 1.18, respectively, with an upward revision from previous estimates [1][4][5]. - The expected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 0.2% for 2025, 6.3% for 2026, and 4.7% for 2027, indicating a cautious outlook [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Li Ning (02331.HK) [1] Core Views - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.817 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.737 billion yuan, down 11.0% year-on-year [2][4] - The board proposed a mid-term dividend of 0.3359 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 50% [2] - The company's EBITDA for the first half of 2025 was 3.513 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.0% increase year-on-year [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue from footwear, apparel, accessories, and equipment for the first half of 2025 was 8.231 billion, 5.193 billion, 1.393 billion, and 0.139 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.9%, -3.4%, and 23.7% [5] - The retail sales of running shoes exceeded 5.26 million pairs, with significant growth in the running and casual sports categories [5] - The company reported a gross margin of 50.0%, a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in the proportion of high-margin direct sales [6][8] Channel Performance - Direct sales revenue decreased by 3.4% to 3.383 billion yuan, while e-commerce revenue grew by 7.4% to 4.300 billion yuan, indicating a strong performance in the online channel [6] - The company maintained a healthy inventory turnover with an inventory amount of 2.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [8] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to have EPS of 1.02, 1.14, and 1.21 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.5, 15.8, and 14.9 [9][11] - The report indicates a stable growth outlook for the company, particularly in the running category, and suggests a limited expansion in store numbers [9]