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航运日报:MSC12月下半月涨价函公布,关注马士基12月下半月开价情况-20251202
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 02:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates in December are continuously being adjusted, and attention should be paid to the quotes in the second half of the month. The settlement price of the December contract is the arithmetic average of the three - phase SCFIS on December 15th, 22nd, and 29th. The freight rate center in the first half of December has been revised down to around $2,100 - 2,200 per FEU, and the SCFIS on December 15th may be between 1,600 - 1,650 points. MSC has announced a price increase to $3,500 per FEU in the second half of December [3]. - There may be a large expected difference in the February 2026 contract. The delivery and settlement time of the February contract has been determined. The delivery and settlement price of the EC2602 contract is the arithmetic average of the three - phase prices on January 26th, February 2nd, and February 9th, 2026. Whether the time for shipping companies to sign contracts and support prices will be postponed is uncertain. If the high - price situation occurs in January 2026, the February contract may be at par with the December contract [4][5]. - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation. If the Suez Canal resumes navigation in 2026, it means an increase in effective capacity supply and the risk of further depressing freight rates [5]. - The strategy suggests that the December contract and the February contract will fluctuate, and there is no arbitrage opportunity for now [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Futures Prices - As of December 2, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures is 68,825 lots, and the daily trading volume is 32,303 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1,492.50, EC2604 is 1,078.00, EC2606 is 1,237.00, EC2608 is 1,357.20, EC2610 is 1,033.20, and EC2512 is 1,636.70 [6]. II. Spot Prices - On November 28th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1,404 per TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was $1,632 per FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was $2,428 per FEU. On December 1st, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1,483.65 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 948.77 points [6]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the monthly average weekly capacity is 303,900 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53 are 326,300, 337,100, 258,900, and 318,800 TEU respectively. In January, the monthly average weekly capacity is 332,400 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 2, 3, 4, and 5 are 353,300, 337,200, 319,500, and 320,000 TEU respectively. There are 4 blank sailings in December (1 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance), and 4 TBNs in January, all from the OA Alliance. Maersk added a new sailing ship, MAERSK EINDHOVEN (13,092 TEU), in week 51 [3]. - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now in 2025, 243 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.985 million TEU. As of November 29, 2025, 74 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.1185 million TEU; 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [6]. IV. Supply Chain - Maersk has issued an update on the Red Sea/Aden Gulf. Due to the continuous turmoil in the Red Sea, A.P. Moller - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched the Cape of Good Hope network when the Gemini cooperation started in February 2025. There is no specific time to change the east - west route of Gemini to pass through the Red Sea for now [2]. V. Demand and European Economy No information provided.