FICC日报 | 2026-01-29 PA联盟价格逐步修正，主力合约短期走势预计震荡 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基 上海 - 鹿特丹 WEEK6 报价 1295/2070 ， WEEK7 报价 1210/1920 ， WEEK8 报价 1200/1900 ， WEEK9 报价 1200/1900；HPL 2月上半月船期报价1235/2035，2月下半月船期报价1235/2035 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 2月上半月价格1400/2340，2月下半月船期价格1400/2340；ONE 2月上半月船期报 价1420/2235，2月下半月船期报价1420/2235；HMM上海-鹿特丹2月上半月船期报价1433/2436，2月下半月船期 1433/2436. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹2月份上半月船期价格1459/2493，2月下半月船期报价1459/2493；EMC2月上 半月船期报价1615/2430；OOCL 2月上半月船期价格1455/2430，2月下半月船期报价1480/2430. FICC日报 | 2026-01- ...

FICC日报 | 2026-01-27 节前运价驱动偏弱，关注马士基WEEK7报价 17000+TEU船舶： 2026年交付21.04万TEU（9艘），2027年交付86.28万TEU（40艘），2028年交付157.34万TEU（78 艘）,2029年交付137.55万TEU（67艘）。总体来看，2026年超大型船舶交付压力相对较小，2027年、2028年以及2029 年17000+TEU船舶年度交付量均超过40艘。2026年上半年交付17000+TEU以上船舶仅4艘。 动态供给：动态供给：2月份月度周均运力28.3万TEU，WEEK6/7/8/9周运力分别为34/34.2/26.11/18.83万TEU；3月 份月度周均运力29.58万TEU，WEEK10/11/12/13/14周运力分别为25.24/33.86/34.87/28.52/25.45万TEU，2月份共计 13个空班（OA联盟6个空班，PA联盟6个空班，双子星联盟1个空班)。3月份共计5个空班和3个TBN。 2月合约估值底或在1700点附近，船期延误以及不同联盟线上揽货比例会对最终的交割结算价格产生影响。12月份 以及1月份货量处于年内较高位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - MSC's online prices in February remain the same as in January, and the focus is on Maersk's WEEK6 quotation. The SCFIS at the beginning of February is an important point of contention for the settlement price of the February contract. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery of ultra-large vessels in 2026 has relatively less pressure, while the annual delivery volume of vessels over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products may disrupt the off - season nature of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase. Maersk's attempt to resume navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will affect the expectations of more distant - month contracts. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 4 - month contract is driven by a bearish trend [1][2][3][4][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Futures Price - As of January 19, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European route) futures is 62,201.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 36,458.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts are 1714.30, 1132.20, 1318.00, 1459.00, 1054.10, and 1300.00 respectively [7]. II. Spot Price - Online quotations from different shipping alliances are provided, including the prices of Maersk, HPL, MSC, ONE, HMM, CMA, EMC, and OOCL for different time periods from Shanghai to Rotterdam. The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price on January 16 is 1676 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2194 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3165 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on January 19 is 1954.19 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1305.27 points [1][7]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. For 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 80 ships have been delivered with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU; for ships over 17,000 TEU, 13 ships have been delivered with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU. The expected delivery of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 is 781,200 TEU (53 ships), 944,500 TEU (64 ships), 1.212 million TEU (82 ships), and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) respectively. The expected delivery of ships over 17,000 TEU from 2026 - 2029 is 210,400 TEU (9 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships), 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships), and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) respectively [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January is 342,200 TEU, with the capacities in WEEK4 and WEEK5 being 408,600 TEU and 275,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February is 273,700 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK6, WEEK7, WEEK8, and WEEK9 are 255,800 TEU, 325,200 TEU, 292,100 TEU, and 221,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March is 289,700 TEU. There are 2 TBNs and 8 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. IV. Supply Chain - Not provided with specific analysis content in the given text, only figure references are given V. Demand and European Economy - Not provided with specific analysis content in the given text, only figure references are given 4. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 4 - month contract is driven by a bearish trend [8]. - **Arbitrage**: None at present [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market demand is gradually improving, and the industry is waiting for Maersk's price offer in January. The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile, while the February contract is expected to be volatile and bullish. The far - month contracts are under pressure from the potential resumption of the Suez Canal [1][9] - The delivery of container ships in 2025 is still at a high level, which may have an impact on the supply - demand relationship in the shipping market [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of December 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts for the container shipping index European line futures was 62,069.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 21,544.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1689.00, 1092.70, 1227.00, 1381.80, 1021.60, and 1653.10 respectively [8] II. Spot Price - On December 5, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1400/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was $1550/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was $2315/FEU. On December 8, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1509.10 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 960.51 points [8] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 4 - week monthly average capacity was 314,700 TEU, with capacities of 334,500, 289,600, 315,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53. In January, the monthly average capacity was 331,700 TEU. In February, the monthly average capacity was 262,900 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in December and 4 TBNs in January, all from the OA alliance. Maersk added a new sailing vessel (MAERSK EINDHOVEN, 13092 TEU) in week 51 [4] - As of December 7, 2025, 245 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.99 million TEU. Among them, 74 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.119 million TEU; 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [8] IV. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026 is relatively high. If the canal resumes, the effective capacity supply will increase, which may further suppress freight rates. Currently, CMA's FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) will fully resume operation starting from January 2026, and the FAL3 route (Europe - Asia) has started a single - trial operation [7] V. Demand and European Economy - The feedback from various surveys shows that the current cargo volume is gradually recovering. The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price may be between 1600 - 1700 points, and Maersk's freight rate is likely to continue to rise at the beginning of January. The 2026 Spring Festival is one month later than in 2025, and there is uncertainty about whether the shipping companies' contract price - holding time will also be postponed [5][7]

航运日报 | 2025-12-10 马士基WEEK52周报价开出，12月下半月运价逐步修正 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第三周价格1535/2410，WEEK52周报价1480/2300；HPL -SPOT12 月下半月价格介于2535-2735.马士基发布1月份涨价函2275/3500. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月上半月价格1485/2465，12月下半月价格1605/2665；ONE 12月下半月船期报价 2225/3035；HMM上海-鹿特丹12月下半月船司价格1618/2806; YML 12/16-12/30船期价格最新更新为1650/2800. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船期报价1535/2645,12月下半月船期价格1985/3545；EMC 12月上 半月价格1855/2810，12月下半月1955/3010；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2230-2380美元/FEU，12月下半月船期价 格介于2530-2630之间. 地缘端：马士基发布关于红海/亚丁湾的更新，在20 ...

航运日报 | 2025-12-02 MSC12月下半月涨价函公布，关注马士基12月下半月开价情 况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第一周价格1610/2520，12月第二周价格介于2220-2331美元/FEU； HPL -SPOT 12月上半月船期报价1285/2035，12月下半月价格1885/3035. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月上半月价格1485/2465；ONE 12月上半月价格1735/2235，12月下半月船期报价 2125/2835；HMM上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船司价格1208/2106; YML 12/8-12/15船期价格最新更新为1250/2000，其 中FE3 FE4单航次特价1100/1700. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船期报价1435/2445,12月下半月船期价格介于1985/3545；EMC 12 月上半月价格1855/2810；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2280-2480美元/FEU 地缘端：马士基发布关于红海/亚丁湾的更新，在2025年2月双子 ...

航运日报 | 2025-11-26 马士基12月第二周报价环比下调，12月合约交割结算价格估 值下修 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第一周价格1610/2520，12月第二周价格介于2200-2300美元/FEU； HPL -SPOT 12月上半月船期报价2235-2535美元/FEU，12月下半月价格3535美元/FEU。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月上半月价格1485/2465；ONE 12月上半月价格1565/2435；HMM上海-鹿特丹12 月上半月船司价格1468/2506; YML 12/7-12/14 报价1350/2200。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船期报价1535/2675；EMC 11月下半月船期报价1855/2810，12月上 半月价格2005/3110；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2280-2630美元/FEU 地缘端：马士基发言人：苏伊士运河管理局此前关于将于12月恢复通航的声明不实。马士基发言人：公司尚未确 定何时将恢复通过苏伊士运河的部分航行。 动态供给： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The 12 - contract is expected to be oscillating strongly [9] - Arbitrage: None [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of October, freight rates were slightly adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the price increase notices for the second half of November will be launched [1] - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer. Focus on the actual cargo - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. For the December contract, as it is far from delivery, trading focuses on the rhythm. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages [5][6][7] - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of October 12, 2025, 210 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 1.704 million TEU [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of October 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures was 64,481.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 59,281.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1463.40, 1142.00, 1306.60, 1450.20, 1120.60, and 1708.60 respectively [7] II. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping alliances show different price trends and price increase notices. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes increased from week 43 to week 44. HPL also issued price increase notices. Many other alliances like MSC + Premier Alliance, Ocean Alliance also have price adjustments and price increase notices [1][2] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining three weeks of October was 276,100 TEU. The monthly average weekly capacity in November was 302,800 TEU, and in December was 287,700 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 7 TBNs in December [3] IV. Supply Chain - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce imposed sanctions on 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. Since HMM and Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. have the same top - level controlling party, whether HMM's operations will be affected is unknown [4] V. Demand and European Economy - No specific content about demand and European economy is provided in the text other than the general background information related to the shipping market, such as the actions of shipping companies to adjust supply to maintain freight rates for the next - year long - term agreement negotiations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate center continued to decline in the first half of October, and HPL attempted to raise the price in the second half of the month. For the October contract, it is relatively safe to allocate short positions, but the key lies in the downward space. The uncertainty lies in the quotes for the second half of October. If HPL's price increase is successful, the estimated ceiling of the final delivery settlement price of the October contract is likely to be around 1100 points; otherwise, it may be close to 1000 points [4]. - For the December contract, the pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. As the freight rate bottom becomes clearer, long positions can be gradually allocated to trade the expected price increases by shipping companies in November and December. However, due to the current large premium of the December contract futures price over the spot price, investors should take long positions in the December contract with a light position [6]. - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, short the October contract when the price is high [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price trends. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes decreased from WEEK39 to WEEK41; HPL - SPOT tried to raise the price in the second half of October. In the MSC + Premier Alliance, MSC and ONE's prices remained stable in the first half of October compared to the second half of September, and YML's price decreased [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel launched a large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called for the evacuation of Palestinians from Gaza City, with nearly 400,000 people having left so far [2]. - **Capacity and Empty Sailing**: In October, the monthly average weekly capacity to European base ports from China was 272,600 TEU, with 15 empty sailings and 1 TBN. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity was 283,000 TEU, with 4 empty sailings and 6 TBN. HMM announced a winter suspension plan for the PA alliance on the Asia - Europe route [3]. 3.2 Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: It is mainly short - allocated during the off - season. The freight rate center in the first half of October continued to decline to around $1400/FEU (equivalent to about 1000 points on the SCFIS). The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The uncertainty lies in HPL's attempt to raise the price in the second half of October [4]. - **December Contract**: The pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, the risk lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the potential impact of transferring US - bound ships to European routes. The current futures price of the December contract has a large premium over the spot price, so long positions should be taken lightly [6]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 84,867.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 31,831.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., were provided [7]. - **Spot Market**: The SCFI prices for different routes (Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East) and the SCFIS prices for European and US West routes were given as of relevant dates. The current spot price center is around $1400/FEU [4][6][7]. 3.4 Strategy and Risk - **Strategy**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, short the October contract when the price is high [8]. - **Risk**: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and US economies, a sharp drop in oil prices, unexpected vessel deliveries, insufficient vessel idling, and a good resolution of the Red Sea crisis. Upward risks include an economic recovery in Europe and the US, supply chain disruptions, significant capacity reduction by liner companies, and the continuous fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to route detours [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the freight rate center continues to decline. In a normal year, the freight rate in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the freight rate center in September has dropped to around $2000/FEU, and the short - allocation of the 10 - month contract is relatively safe, but the key lies in the downward space. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [4]. - The off - season and peak - season pattern of the 12 - month contract still exists, and the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. In a normal year, the Far East - Europe price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. As the freight rate bottom becomes clearer, long - allocation can be gradually carried out later to trade the expected freight rate increase by shipping companies in November and December [5]. - The main contract fluctuates weakly, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different alliances and shipping companies have different price quotations for different routes and time periods. For example, the price of Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam route in week 37 is $1175/1970, and in week 38 is $1035/1730. HPL's SPOT price for the first half of September, the second half of September, and the first half of October is $1085/1735 [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: On September 2, local time, the Israeli military chief of staff said that the Israeli army had entered new areas in Gaza City and would increase its operations and strike intensity [2]. - **Empty Voyages**: MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced empty voyages during the Chinese Golden Week. The initial capacity involved in the four voyages of MSC is approximately 59,000 TEU, and the AE1 route of the Gemini Alliance in week 41 is also empty. The monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in September is 290,700 TEU, and in October is 268,000 TEU [3]. - **Overtime Ships**: HPL has announced information on two overtime ships in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU [3]. 2. Futures Prices As of September 3, 2025, the total contract positions of the container shipping index for European routes are 82,665.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 40,534.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1534.00, EC2604 is 1255.10, EC2606 is 1441.10, EC2508 is 1609.50, EC2510 is 1323.00, and EC2512 is 1701.20 [6]. 3. Spot Prices On August 29, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1481.00/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $1923.00/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $2866.00/FEU. On September 1, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1773.60 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1013.90 points [6]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 31, 2025, 180 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.452 million TEU. Among them, 58 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 873,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 5. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Short the 10 - month contract on rallies.