航运日报 | 2025-12-12 市场需求逐步好转，等待马士基1月份开价 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第三周价格1540/2420，WEEK52周报价1485/2310；HPL -SPOT12 月下半月价格介于2035-2335.马士基发布1月份涨价函2275/3500. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月下半月价格1605/2665；ONE 12月下半月船期报价2225/3035；HMM上海-鹿特 丹12月下半月船司价格1418/2406; YML 12/16-12/30船期价格最新更新为1550/2400. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月下半月船期价格1535/2645,1月上半月船期报价2485/4545；EMC 12月下半 月1955/3010；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2230-2380美元/FEU，12月下半月船期价格介于2530-2630之间. 地缘端： 据AXIOS网站：特朗普计划任命一名美国将军领导加沙内部安全部队。美国白宫就加沙问题表示，和平 计划下一阶段正进行大量低调的规划。 ...

航运日报 | 2025-12-10 马士基WEEK52周报价开出，12月下半月运价逐步修正 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第三周价格1535/2410，WEEK52周报价1480/2300；HPL -SPOT12 月下半月价格介于2535-2735.马士基发布1月份涨价函2275/3500. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月上半月价格1485/2465，12月下半月价格1605/2665；ONE 12月下半月船期报价 2225/3035；HMM上海-鹿特丹12月下半月船司价格1618/2806; YML 12/16-12/30船期价格最新更新为1650/2800. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船期报价1535/2645,12月下半月船期价格1985/3545；EMC 12月上 半月价格1855/2810，12月下半月1955/3010；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2230-2380美元/FEU，12月下半月船期价 格介于2530-2630之间. 地缘端：马士基发布关于红海/亚丁湾的更新，在20 ...

航运日报 | 2025-12-02 MSC12月下半月涨价函公布，关注马士基12月下半月开价情 况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第一周价格1610/2520，12月第二周价格介于2220-2331美元/FEU； HPL -SPOT 12月上半月船期报价1285/2035，12月下半月价格1885/3035. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月上半月价格1485/2465；ONE 12月上半月价格1735/2235，12月下半月船期报价 2125/2835；HMM上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船司价格1208/2106; YML 12/8-12/15船期价格最新更新为1250/2000，其 中FE3 FE4单航次特价1100/1700. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船期报价1435/2445,12月下半月船期价格介于1985/3545；EMC 12 月上半月价格1855/2810；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2280-2480美元/FEU 地缘端：马士基发布关于红海/亚丁湾的更新，在2025年2月双子 ...

航运日报 | 2025-11-26 马士基12月第二周报价环比下调，12月合约交割结算价格估 值下修 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第一周价格1610/2520，12月第二周价格介于2200-2300美元/FEU； HPL -SPOT 12月上半月船期报价2235-2535美元/FEU，12月下半月价格3535美元/FEU。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月上半月价格1485/2465；ONE 12月上半月价格1565/2435；HMM上海-鹿特丹12 月上半月船司价格1468/2506; YML 12/7-12/14 报价1350/2200。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船期报价1535/2675；EMC 11月下半月船期报价1855/2810，12月上 半月价格2005/3110；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2280-2630美元/FEU 地缘端：马士基发言人：苏伊士运河管理局此前关于将于12月恢复通航的声明不实。马士基发言人：公司尚未确 定何时将恢复通过苏伊士运河的部分航行。 动态供给： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The 12 - contract is expected to be oscillating strongly [9] - Arbitrage: None [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of October, freight rates were slightly adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the price increase notices for the second half of November will be launched [1] - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer. Focus on the actual cargo - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. For the December contract, as it is far from delivery, trading focuses on the rhythm. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages [5][6][7] - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of October 12, 2025, 210 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 1.704 million TEU [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of October 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures was 64,481.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 59,281.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1463.40, 1142.00, 1306.60, 1450.20, 1120.60, and 1708.60 respectively [7] II. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping alliances show different price trends and price increase notices. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes increased from week 43 to week 44. HPL also issued price increase notices. Many other alliances like MSC + Premier Alliance, Ocean Alliance also have price adjustments and price increase notices [1][2] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining three weeks of October was 276,100 TEU. The monthly average weekly capacity in November was 302,800 TEU, and in December was 287,700 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 7 TBNs in December [3] IV. Supply Chain - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce imposed sanctions on 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. Since HMM and Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. have the same top - level controlling party, whether HMM's operations will be affected is unknown [4] V. Demand and European Economy - No specific content about demand and European economy is provided in the text other than the general background information related to the shipping market, such as the actions of shipping companies to adjust supply to maintain freight rates for the next - year long - term agreement negotiations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate center continued to decline in the first half of October, and HPL attempted to raise the price in the second half of the month. For the October contract, it is relatively safe to allocate short positions, but the key lies in the downward space. The uncertainty lies in the quotes for the second half of October. If HPL's price increase is successful, the estimated ceiling of the final delivery settlement price of the October contract is likely to be around 1100 points; otherwise, it may be close to 1000 points [4]. - For the December contract, the pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. As the freight rate bottom becomes clearer, long positions can be gradually allocated to trade the expected price increases by shipping companies in November and December. However, due to the current large premium of the December contract futures price over the spot price, investors should take long positions in the December contract with a light position [6]. - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, short the October contract when the price is high [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price trends. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes decreased from WEEK39 to WEEK41; HPL - SPOT tried to raise the price in the second half of October. In the MSC + Premier Alliance, MSC and ONE's prices remained stable in the first half of October compared to the second half of September, and YML's price decreased [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel launched a large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called for the evacuation of Palestinians from Gaza City, with nearly 400,000 people having left so far [2]. - **Capacity and Empty Sailing**: In October, the monthly average weekly capacity to European base ports from China was 272,600 TEU, with 15 empty sailings and 1 TBN. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity was 283,000 TEU, with 4 empty sailings and 6 TBN. HMM announced a winter suspension plan for the PA alliance on the Asia - Europe route [3]. 3.2 Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: It is mainly short - allocated during the off - season. The freight rate center in the first half of October continued to decline to around $1400/FEU (equivalent to about 1000 points on the SCFIS). The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The uncertainty lies in HPL's attempt to raise the price in the second half of October [4]. - **December Contract**: The pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, the risk lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the potential impact of transferring US - bound ships to European routes. The current futures price of the December contract has a large premium over the spot price, so long positions should be taken lightly [6]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 84,867.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 31,831.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., were provided [7]. - **Spot Market**: The SCFI prices for different routes (Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East) and the SCFIS prices for European and US West routes were given as of relevant dates. The current spot price center is around $1400/FEU [4][6][7]. 3.4 Strategy and Risk - **Strategy**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, short the October contract when the price is high [8]. - **Risk**: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and US economies, a sharp drop in oil prices, unexpected vessel deliveries, insufficient vessel idling, and a good resolution of the Red Sea crisis. Upward risks include an economic recovery in Europe and the US, supply chain disruptions, significant capacity reduction by liner companies, and the continuous fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to route detours [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the freight rate center continues to decline. In a normal year, the freight rate in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the freight rate center in September has dropped to around $2000/FEU, and the short - allocation of the 10 - month contract is relatively safe, but the key lies in the downward space. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [4]. - The off - season and peak - season pattern of the 12 - month contract still exists, and the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. In a normal year, the Far East - Europe price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. As the freight rate bottom becomes clearer, long - allocation can be gradually carried out later to trade the expected freight rate increase by shipping companies in November and December [5]. - The main contract fluctuates weakly, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different alliances and shipping companies have different price quotations for different routes and time periods. For example, the price of Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam route in week 37 is $1175/1970, and in week 38 is $1035/1730. HPL's SPOT price for the first half of September, the second half of September, and the first half of October is $1085/1735 [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: On September 2, local time, the Israeli military chief of staff said that the Israeli army had entered new areas in Gaza City and would increase its operations and strike intensity [2]. - **Empty Voyages**: MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced empty voyages during the Chinese Golden Week. The initial capacity involved in the four voyages of MSC is approximately 59,000 TEU, and the AE1 route of the Gemini Alliance in week 41 is also empty. The monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in September is 290,700 TEU, and in October is 268,000 TEU [3]. - **Overtime Ships**: HPL has announced information on two overtime ships in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU [3]. 2. Futures Prices As of September 3, 2025, the total contract positions of the container shipping index for European routes are 82,665.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 40,534.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1534.00, EC2604 is 1255.10, EC2606 is 1441.10, EC2508 is 1609.50, EC2510 is 1323.00, and EC2512 is 1701.20 [6]. 3. Spot Prices On August 29, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1481.00/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $1923.00/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $2866.00/FEU. On September 1, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1773.60 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1013.90 points [6]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 31, 2025, 180 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.452 million TEU. Among them, 58 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 873,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 5. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Short the 10 - month contract on rallies.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the spot freight rate has likely appeared, with the offline price of ONE adjusted down to $3108/FEU [1][4]. - The August contract is experiencing high - level fluctuations, and the top of the freight rate has likely emerged. The 08 contract's delivery settlement price may fall around 2200 points [4]. - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, and subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with expected high volatility [5]. - The December contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [6][7]. - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries [8]. - For trading strategies, the main contract is expected to fluctuate. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 80,317 lots, and the daily trading volume was 74,208 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1477.30, 1324.00, 1468.80, 2239.70, 1537.00, and 1701.80 respectively [7]. II. Spot Price - Online quotes vary among different shipping companies. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 31 was 1907/3214, and in week 32 it was 1780/2980. In the second half of July, the offline price of the PA alliance was between $3100 - 3300/FEU, and that of the OA alliance was between $3200 - 3500/FEU [2][4]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From January to July 20, 2025, 151 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU. Among them, 47 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, totaling 705,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, totaling 159,880 TEU [8]. - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining two weeks of July was 272,000 TEU. In August, the average weekly capacity was 310,500 TEU, and in September it was 276,400 TEU. Maersk will add two additional ships in August, with a total capacity of about 29,000 TEU [3]. IV. Supply Chain - The situation of container ship passage through major canals such as the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal is presented in the figures, which can reflect the impact on the supply chain [66][68][74]. - The congestion ratio and congested capacity of global container ships are also shown in the figures, which are important factors affecting the supply chain [57]. V. Demand and European Economy - Figures such as the EU 27's industrial production index, import value from China, consumer confidence index, and retail sales year - on - year can reflect the demand and economic situation in Europe [39][40][41]. - China's export volume to the EU and total export volume can also provide insights into the demand side [43][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The joint statement between China and the US exceeded expectations, and the expectation of pre - export rush on the US route drove the futures market to rise sharply. However, the 06 contract still faces a weak reality, and the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price increase expectations. The 06 contract will gradually return to "reality" trading as the delivery date approaches, while the 08 contract will still be affected by both expectations and reality. [1][4] - The US tariff policy has led to significant changes in the US route. Some shipping capacity on the US route has overflowed to the European route. After the joint statement, the US has adjusted its tariffs on China. There are many suspended voyages on the China - US route in April and May, but the shipping capacity will recover in June. There may be opportunities for supply - demand mismatch due to the pre - export rush on the US route in the short term, which will ease the pressure on the European route. [2][5] - The European route market has low prices in mid - to - late May, and the shipping capacity in June is relatively high. The futures market has a large premium over the spot market. Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing high prices and are recommended to use arbitrage strategies. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of May 12, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route was 103,695 lots, and the daily trading volume was 158,451 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1500.20, 1360.00, 1466.20, 1794.00, 1481.60, and 1683.00 respectively. [6] 2. Spot Price - On May 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1200/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $2272/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East route) price was $3283/FEU. On May 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1302.62 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1455.31 points. [6][7] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 1, 2025, 93 container ships with a total capacity of 724,600 TEU have been delivered. Among them, 30 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 451,300 TEU, and 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 70,872 TEU have been delivered. [7] - The shipping capacity in May has been gradually revised upwards. The shipping capacities in WEEK20/21/22 were 251,600/262,000/296,000 TEU respectively, and the average weekly shipping capacity in May was about 280,000 - 290,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20% in 2024. The average weekly shipping capacity in June is about 280,000 TEU. A total of 11 US - bound ships have been transferred to the European route, with a total capacity of 128,000 TEU, mostly in May. The average weekly shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June is 285,100 TEU. [2] 4. Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided, only figure references. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content provided, only figure references.