航运日报 | 2025-09-04 双子星联盟黄金周空班公布，HPL以及YML 10月上半月价 格挂出 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹37周价格开出为1175/1970，38周价格1035/1730；HPL -SPOT 9月上半月 船期报价1085/1735，9月下半月价格1085/1735，10月上半月价格1085/1735。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为50/100. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 9月上半月船期报价1220/2040，9月下半月船期报价1220/2040；ONE9月上半月船期 报价1674/2143，9月下半月船期报价1704/2643；HMM上海-鹿特丹9月上半月船期报价1265/2100; YML9月下半月 至10月15日报价1100/1800。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1310/2220；EMC 9月份上半月船期价格1455/2210；OOCL 9月船期价格1950-2000美元/FEU。 地缘端：当地时间9月2日，以色列国防军总参谋长扎米尔向预备役军人发表讲话，针对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the spot freight rate has likely appeared, with the offline price of ONE adjusted down to $3108/FEU [1][4]. - The August contract is experiencing high - level fluctuations, and the top of the freight rate has likely emerged. The 08 contract's delivery settlement price may fall around 2200 points [4]. - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, and subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with expected high volatility [5]. - The December contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [6][7]. - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries [8]. - For trading strategies, the main contract is expected to fluctuate. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 80,317 lots, and the daily trading volume was 74,208 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1477.30, 1324.00, 1468.80, 2239.70, 1537.00, and 1701.80 respectively [7]. II. Spot Price - Online quotes vary among different shipping companies. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 31 was 1907/3214, and in week 32 it was 1780/2980. In the second half of July, the offline price of the PA alliance was between $3100 - 3300/FEU, and that of the OA alliance was between $3200 - 3500/FEU [2][4]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From January to July 20, 2025, 151 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU. Among them, 47 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, totaling 705,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, totaling 159,880 TEU [8]. - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining two weeks of July was 272,000 TEU. In August, the average weekly capacity was 310,500 TEU, and in September it was 276,400 TEU. Maersk will add two additional ships in August, with a total capacity of about 29,000 TEU [3]. IV. Supply Chain - The situation of container ship passage through major canals such as the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal is presented in the figures, which can reflect the impact on the supply chain [66][68][74]. - The congestion ratio and congested capacity of global container ships are also shown in the figures, which are important factors affecting the supply chain [57]. V. Demand and European Economy - Figures such as the EU 27's industrial production index, import value from China, consumer confidence index, and retail sales year - on - year can reflect the demand and economic situation in Europe [39][40][41]. - China's export volume to the EU and total export volume can also provide insights into the demand side [43][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The joint statement between China and the US exceeded expectations, and the expectation of pre - export rush on the US route drove the futures market to rise sharply. However, the 06 contract still faces a weak reality, and the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price increase expectations. The 06 contract will gradually return to "reality" trading as the delivery date approaches, while the 08 contract will still be affected by both expectations and reality. [1][4] - The US tariff policy has led to significant changes in the US route. Some shipping capacity on the US route has overflowed to the European route. After the joint statement, the US has adjusted its tariffs on China. There are many suspended voyages on the China - US route in April and May, but the shipping capacity will recover in June. There may be opportunities for supply - demand mismatch due to the pre - export rush on the US route in the short term, which will ease the pressure on the European route. [2][5] - The European route market has low prices in mid - to - late May, and the shipping capacity in June is relatively high. The futures market has a large premium over the spot market. Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing high prices and are recommended to use arbitrage strategies. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of May 12, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route was 103,695 lots, and the daily trading volume was 158,451 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1500.20, 1360.00, 1466.20, 1794.00, 1481.60, and 1683.00 respectively. [6] 2. Spot Price - On May 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1200/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $2272/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East route) price was $3283/FEU. On May 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1302.62 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1455.31 points. [6][7] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 1, 2025, 93 container ships with a total capacity of 724,600 TEU have been delivered. Among them, 30 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 451,300 TEU, and 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 70,872 TEU have been delivered. [7] - The shipping capacity in May has been gradually revised upwards. The shipping capacities in WEEK20/21/22 were 251,600/262,000/296,000 TEU respectively, and the average weekly shipping capacity in May was about 280,000 - 290,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20% in 2024. The average weekly shipping capacity in June is about 280,000 TEU. A total of 11 US - bound ships have been transferred to the European route, with a total capacity of 128,000 TEU, mostly in May. The average weekly shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June is 285,100 TEU. [2] 4. Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided, only figure references. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content provided, only figure references.