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国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250720
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 12:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The log market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. The spot prices of mainstream log varieties have generally declined slightly this week. The futures market shows a high - level volatile trend, with the closing price of the main contract rising, and the monthly spread tends to narrow [4][15][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of July 13, there were 19 vessels departing from New Zealand in July, among which 17 were bound for the Chinese mainland, and 2 were for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that about 16 vessels will arrive in July and 3 in August, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - **Daily shipment volume**: As of the week of July 11, the daily shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 19,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 3,100 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 11,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 600 cubic meters) [6][12]. - **Port inventory**: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.1808 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 18,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 506,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 15,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 410,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 217,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 21,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.3147 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 7,100 cubic meters [6][12]. 3.3 Market Trend - The log contract market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. This week, the monthly spread tends to narrow. The 09 - 11 monthly spread is - 3 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly spread is - 9.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly spread is - 6.5 yuan per cubic meter [15]. - As of July 18, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 828.5 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 6.0%. This week, the market showed a high - level volatile trend, and the fundamentals remained unchanged [16]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot price**: The prices of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter compared with last week; the price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged, and that in Jiangsu also remained unchanged; the price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter [4][19]. - **Regional spread**: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the spreads of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [22][23][27] - **Tree species and specification spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications, like the spreads between 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 40 +, 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 40 +, etc. [38][40][42] 3.5 Other - **Freight and exchange rate**: As of the week of July 20, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,052 points, a week - on - week increase of 389 points (23.4%); the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 673 points, a week - on - week increase of 4.3%; the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,646.90 points, a week - on - week decrease of 5.0%. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated at a low level. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.182, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly increased by 0.8% to 1.677 [6][52][53]