Core Points - Poland has closed all border crossings with Belarus, disrupting the main route of the China-Europe Railway Express, which is crucial for trade between China and Europe [1] - The closure is a response to security concerns following the incursion of drones from Belarus and Russia into Polish airspace [1] - The disruption threatens a trade value of €25 billion, with warnings from the EU-China Chamber of Commerce about potential inflation and business bankruptcies in Poland and the EU [1] Trade Impact - The China-Europe Railway Express has become a pillar of trade, accounting for approximately 90% of the total rail freight volume between China and Europe [1] - In 2024, the freight volume on this route is expected to grow by 10.6%, with a significant increase in value by 85%, reaching around €25.07 billion (approximately $27 billion) [1] - The railway now represents 3.7% of total China-Europe trade, up from 2.1% the previous year, with around 60% of goods being electronic products, machinery, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles [1] Logistics and Alternatives - The disruption has forced shippers to reconsider their logistics, with many opting for ocean routes, which, while reducing unit costs, double the transportation time [2] - For time-sensitive goods, traders are increasing freight costs to air transport, incurring significant premiums to ensure timely delivery [2] - The situation highlights the importance of diversifying transportation routes to mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single pathway [2]

9月12日，波兰宣布关闭与白俄罗斯的全部边境口岸，这直接导致中欧班列主干线——马拉舍维奇口岸 陷入停摆，扰乱了中欧贸易。不仅如此，在之后的谈判中，波兰还拒绝了重新开放与白俄罗斯边境的请 求，这相当于亲手掐断了与中国之间的贸易动脉。 波兰的决定是在9月9日发生的事件之后做出的。当时，来自白俄罗斯和俄罗斯的20多架无人机闯入波兰 领空。尽管莫斯科和明斯克否认存在敌对意图，但华沙依旧以安全为由，明确要关闭与白俄罗斯的边 境。 这一中断威胁着价值250亿欧元的中欧贸易。代表1600多家公司的欧盟中国商会警告称，供应链中断的 风险将推高欧盟主要经济体的通胀，"如果这种情况持续下去，波兰和欧盟的企业将接连破产"。 自开通以来，中欧班列已成为中欧贸易的支柱。该线路途经白俄罗斯进入波兰，承担了中欧铁路货运总 量的约90%。2024年，该线路货运量同比增长10.6%，货值飙升85%，达到约250.7亿欧元（约合270亿 美元）。 得益于高周转率的跨境电商和高价值的工业货物，目前这条铁路桥约占中欧贸易总额的3.7%，高于上 一年的2.1%。公开数据显示，约60%的货物为电子产品、机械设备、锂电池和电动汽车。 与其他运输方式相比， ...