Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the adjusted EBITDA forecast for Sands China (01928) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price raised by 19% to HKD 23.80, reflecting a 29% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Sands China reported 2Q25 net revenue of USD 1.797 billion, recovering to 84% of 2Q19 levels (up 2% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter) [2] - Adjusted property EBITDA for 2Q25 was USD 566 million, recovering to 74% of 2Q19 levels (up 1% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter), aligning with institutional expectations of USD 562 million [2] - The performance is attributed to more aggressive marketing rebate activities, improved VIP win rates, and increased market share from 22.4% in 1Q25 to 22.6% in 2Q25 due to the opening of Londoner [2] Group 2: Management Insights - Management disclosed a short-term EBITDA target of approximately USD 2.7 billion annually (USD 675 million quarterly), with contributions expected from Venetian and Londoner (USD 2 billion), Four Seasons (USD 400 million), Parisian (USD 200 million), and Sands Macao (USD 100 million) [3] - Management acknowledged previous conservatism in customer rebate reinvestment rates, which negatively impacted performance in Macau, but noted improvements in May and June 2025 following a shift in rebate strategy [3] - The new rebate strategy aims to increase rebate spending to drive traffic to Parisian and Sands Macao, while strong natural traffic is expected to support performance at Venetian and Londoner under limited rebate spending [3] - Management believes Macau has become a regional entertainment hub, hosting numerous global and regional events, which will continue to drive visitor traffic [3] - Continued high visitor numbers are supported by day-trip travelers, with mass market recovery at 93% of 2Q19 levels (up 10% quarter-on-quarter) and premium mass market recovery at 106% of 2Q19 levels (up 5% quarter-on-quarter) [3]