Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Sands China (01928), projecting revenue growth for 2025E/2026E/2027E at $7.4 billion, $7.9 billion, and $8.3 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.4%, 6.8%, and 4.9% [1] Group 1 - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, achieving a total net income of $1.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.1% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $601 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.2% [2] - Revenue composition by business segment includes 76.3% from gaming, 11.7% from rooms, 3.7% from dining, 6.9% from shopping centers, and 1.3% from other retail [2] Group 2 - The strong performance of the Londoner property is highlighted, with revenue growth of 6.9% quarter-on-quarter and 49.1% year-on-year, while EBITDA increased by 6.8% quarter-on-quarter and 76.6% year-on-year [2] - The report indicates that the Londoner still has potential for EBITDA margin improvement compared to other properties [2] - The company is actively adjusting its strategy to capture new market share, particularly in the London property segment [1]

Core Insights - Sands China (1928 HK) reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding expectations, reaching USD 601 million, a year-on-year increase of 3% and surpassing market forecasts by 7% [1][2] - Total net revenue for Sands China grew by 7.5% year-on-year to USD 1.9 billion, driven by the successful renovation of "The Londoner," which saw net revenue increase by 49% to USD 686 million and adjusted property EBITDA surge by 77% to USD 219 million [1][2] - The overall gaming revenue for the industry increased by 9% year-on-year, with Sands China's market share recovering to 23.6%, although it still lags behind the industry average growth rate [2] Company Performance - Sands China's total gaming revenue reached USD 1.8 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a 9% year-on-year growth, while the industry average was 13% [2] - The mass market segment showed robust performance with a 12% increase in gaming revenue to USD 1.5 billion, benefiting from an 8% rise in betting amounts and a 0.7 percentage point improvement in win rates [2] - VIP gaming revenue, however, declined by 16% year-on-year to USD 148 million, despite a slight improvement in win rates [2] Market Position - Sands China's market share has shown a quarter-on-quarter recovery, indicating a positive trend since the low point in Q1 2025 [2] - The company has implemented a more aggressive reinvestment strategy since Q2 2025, which has contributed to the stable performance of its mass market operations [2] - The stock is projected to have an EV/EBITDA of 10 times for 2026, suggesting potential for future growth [2]

Financial Performance - Sands China reported a 2.5% year-on-year increase in net revenue to $1.8 billion in Q2 2025, but net profit fell by 13% to $214 million[1] - Adjusted EBITDA remained flat at $566 million, with the Londoner property contributing significantly to performance recovery[1] - The Londoner’s EBITDA doubled year-on-year to $205 million, outperforming market expectations[1] Market Trends - Total gaming revenue in Q2 2025 was flat at $1.7 billion, while the industry grew by 8%, indicating Sands China's growth lagged behind the market[2] - Sands China's market share decreased by 2 percentage points year-on-year to 22.5%[2] - VIP gaming revenue fell by 13% to $155 million, contrasting with a 13% industry growth, despite a slight increase in win rate[2] Operational Insights - The Londoner’s renovation has positively impacted performance, with a total of 10,800 hotel rooms post-renovation, maintaining the largest room count among Macau's six licensed operators[3] - The Venetian's EBITDA declined by 10% to $236 million, primarily due to poor gaming win rates[1] - Sands China is focusing on high-end mass market growth while consolidating its base mass market share[6]

Core Viewpoint - LVS's Q2 2025 financial results show a mixed recovery in Macau operations, with GGR at $1.72 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.5%, but still lagging behind industry recovery rates [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - LVS reported a Q2 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $566 million, up 1% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 74% of the level seen in Q2 2019 [2] - The adjusted EBITDA margin (EM) for LVS was 31.5%, compared to 36.1% in Q2 2019, indicating a lower recovery rate due to a higher proportion of low-spending tourists [2] - The company has adjusted revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 down to HKD 57.8 billion, HKD 62.2 billion, and HKD 65.3 billion respectively, alongside adjusted EBITDA forecasts of HKD 19.1 billion, HKD 21.1 billion, and HKD 22.8 billion [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Macau's GGR recovery is primarily driven by a strong influx of visitors, with June 2025 GGR reaching 88% of the level seen in 2019, marking a post-pandemic high [3] - The company is facing increased competition in the market, which has affected its ability to capitalize on the return of high-end customers [1][3] - The introduction of non-gaming activities, such as concerts and events, is aimed at attracting diverse customer segments, including high-net-worth individuals and families [2][3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The renovation of The Londoner is showing positive effects, with an EM of 31.9%, indicating strong appeal to visitors post-renovation [2] - The company plans to enhance customer incentives to improve performance, as management acknowledged a reliance on hotel hardware attractiveness [1] - Upcoming events, including the NBA China Games and various concerts, are expected to further boost visitor numbers and enhance the non-gaming revenue stream [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the adjusted EBITDA forecast for Sands China (01928) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price raised by 19% to HKD 23.80, reflecting a 29% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Sands China reported 2Q25 net revenue of USD 1.797 billion, recovering to 84% of 2Q19 levels (up 2% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter) [2] - Adjusted property EBITDA for 2Q25 was USD 566 million, recovering to 74% of 2Q19 levels (up 1% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter), aligning with institutional expectations of USD 562 million [2] - The performance is attributed to more aggressive marketing rebate activities, improved VIP win rates, and increased market share from 22.4% in 1Q25 to 22.6% in 2Q25 due to the opening of Londoner [2] Group 2: Management Insights - Management disclosed a short-term EBITDA target of approximately USD 2.7 billion annually (USD 675 million quarterly), with contributions expected from Venetian and Londoner (USD 2 billion), Four Seasons (USD 400 million), Parisian (USD 200 million), and Sands Macao (USD 100 million) [3] - Management acknowledged previous conservatism in customer rebate reinvestment rates, which negatively impacted performance in Macau, but noted improvements in May and June 2025 following a shift in rebate strategy [3] - The new rebate strategy aims to increase rebate spending to drive traffic to Parisian and Sands Macao, while strong natural traffic is expected to support performance at Venetian and Londoner under limited rebate spending [3] - Management believes Macau has become a regional entertainment hub, hosting numerous global and regional events, which will continue to drive visitor traffic [3] - Continued high visitor numbers are supported by day-trip travelers, with mass market recovery at 93% of 2Q19 levels (up 10% quarter-on-quarter) and premium mass market recovery at 106% of 2Q19 levels (up 5% quarter-on-quarter) [3]