滙富快訊 香港及中國市場日報 今日焦點: ►金沙中國（1928 HK，股價HK$19.23，市值1,550億港元） 3Q25再投資策略奏效 3Q25經調整EBITDA優於預期。金沙中國於2025年第三季表現強勁，總淨 收入按年增長7.5%至19億美元。經調整物業EBITDA達6.01億美元，按年 增長3%，較市場預期高出7%，更是自1Q24以來EBITDA首次突破6億美元大 關。業績改善主要得益於「倫敦人」完成翻新，該物業項目淨收入按年 增長49%至6.86億美元，經調整物業EBITDA大幅增長77%至2.19億美元。 威尼斯人淨收入則與去年同期持平（6.92億美元），其餘物業收入呈現 按年下滑。 市佔率穩健回升。第三季總博彩收入達18億美元，按年增長9%（行業平 均：+13%）。市場佔有率達23.6%，同比下降0.8個百分點，但環比上升1 個百分點，創2024年第四季以來新高。中場業務表現突出，博彩收入按 年增12%至15億美元（行業平均：+7%），主要受惠下注額同比上升8%及 贏率提升0.7個百分點。VIP博彩收入同比下跌16%至1.48億美元（行業平 均：+29%），雖贏率改善0.16個百分點，但投注額 ...

Financial Performance - Sands China reported a 2.5% year-on-year increase in net revenue to $1.8 billion in Q2 2025, but net profit fell by 13% to $214 million[1] - Adjusted EBITDA remained flat at $566 million, with the Londoner property contributing significantly to performance recovery[1] - The Londoner’s EBITDA doubled year-on-year to $205 million, outperforming market expectations[1] Market Trends - Total gaming revenue in Q2 2025 was flat at $1.7 billion, while the industry grew by 8%, indicating Sands China's growth lagged behind the market[2] - Sands China's market share decreased by 2 percentage points year-on-year to 22.5%[2] - VIP gaming revenue fell by 13% to $155 million, contrasting with a 13% industry growth, despite a slight increase in win rate[2] Operational Insights - The Londoner’s renovation has positively impacted performance, with a total of 10,800 hotel rooms post-renovation, maintaining the largest room count among Macau's six licensed operators[3] - The Venetian's EBITDA declined by 10% to $236 million, primarily due to poor gaming win rates[1] - Sands China is focusing on high-end mass market growth while consolidating its base mass market share[6]

Core Viewpoint - LVS's Q2 2025 financial results show a mixed recovery in Macau operations, with GGR at $1.72 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.5%, but still lagging behind industry recovery rates [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - LVS reported a Q2 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $566 million, up 1% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 74% of the level seen in Q2 2019 [2] - The adjusted EBITDA margin (EM) for LVS was 31.5%, compared to 36.1% in Q2 2019, indicating a lower recovery rate due to a higher proportion of low-spending tourists [2] - The company has adjusted revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 down to HKD 57.8 billion, HKD 62.2 billion, and HKD 65.3 billion respectively, alongside adjusted EBITDA forecasts of HKD 19.1 billion, HKD 21.1 billion, and HKD 22.8 billion [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Macau's GGR recovery is primarily driven by a strong influx of visitors, with June 2025 GGR reaching 88% of the level seen in 2019, marking a post-pandemic high [3] - The company is facing increased competition in the market, which has affected its ability to capitalize on the return of high-end customers [1][3] - The introduction of non-gaming activities, such as concerts and events, is aimed at attracting diverse customer segments, including high-net-worth individuals and families [2][3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The renovation of The Londoner is showing positive effects, with an EM of 31.9%, indicating strong appeal to visitors post-renovation [2] - The company plans to enhance customer incentives to improve performance, as management acknowledged a reliance on hotel hardware attractiveness [1] - Upcoming events, including the NBA China Games and various concerts, are expected to further boost visitor numbers and enhance the non-gaming revenue stream [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the adjusted EBITDA forecast for Sands China (01928) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price raised by 19% to HKD 23.80, reflecting a 29% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Sands China reported 2Q25 net revenue of USD 1.797 billion, recovering to 84% of 2Q19 levels (up 2% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter) [2] - Adjusted property EBITDA for 2Q25 was USD 566 million, recovering to 74% of 2Q19 levels (up 1% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter), aligning with institutional expectations of USD 562 million [2] - The performance is attributed to more aggressive marketing rebate activities, improved VIP win rates, and increased market share from 22.4% in 1Q25 to 22.6% in 2Q25 due to the opening of Londoner [2] Group 2: Management Insights - Management disclosed a short-term EBITDA target of approximately USD 2.7 billion annually (USD 675 million quarterly), with contributions expected from Venetian and Londoner (USD 2 billion), Four Seasons (USD 400 million), Parisian (USD 200 million), and Sands Macao (USD 100 million) [3] - Management acknowledged previous conservatism in customer rebate reinvestment rates, which negatively impacted performance in Macau, but noted improvements in May and June 2025 following a shift in rebate strategy [3] - The new rebate strategy aims to increase rebate spending to drive traffic to Parisian and Sands Macao, while strong natural traffic is expected to support performance at Venetian and Londoner under limited rebate spending [3] - Management believes Macau has become a regional entertainment hub, hosting numerous global and regional events, which will continue to drive visitor traffic [3] - Continued high visitor numbers are supported by day-trip travelers, with mass market recovery at 93% of 2Q19 levels (up 10% quarter-on-quarter) and premium mass market recovery at 106% of 2Q19 levels (up 5% quarter-on-quarter) [3]