Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] Core Viewpoints - The alumina supply continues to rise, and the import window further expands. The domestic alumina supply surplus is increasing due to the release of复产 and new production capacity, and the overseas alumina supply surplus is also growing. The import window has opened, putting pressure on domestic prices. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In the north, safety and environmental protection rectification in Shanxi continued, and safety controls tightened in Henan and Shanxi near the National Day. In the south, the rainy season in Guangxi affected mining but not downstream production. The spot price of Guinean bauxite decreased, and the long - term agreement price for the fourth quarter is undetermined. Newly arrived ore was 359.9 million tons, including 282.3 million tons from Guinea and 77.6 million tons from Australia. The shipping freight from Guinea to China increased [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The futures rebounded in the middle of the week, and trading volume increased. The import profit expanded. The domestic alumina full - cost was 2900 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 177 yuan/ton. The national alumina production capacity in operation increased by 40 million tons to 9795 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.15% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the operating capacity of Yunnan Honghe New Materials Co., Ltd. increased by 4 million tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 4 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged [14] - **Inventory**: The national alumina inventory increased by 3.9 million tons to 371.9 million tons. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises generally increased, with regional differences. Alumina enterprise inventory slightly increased, port inventory fluctuated, and in - transit/in - warehouse/on - platform inventory continued to rise [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 17703 tons to 150393 tons [15] 2. Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - In August 2025, the import of alumina was 9.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1392%. The export was 18 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.4% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative net export was 126.5 million tons [16] - On September 19, 2025, Brazil sold 3 million tons of alumina at an FOB price of 351 US dollars/ton for November shipment [16] - On September 19, 2025, India sold 3 million tons of alumina at an FOB price of 336 US dollars/ton for December shipment, 4.93 US dollars/ton higher than the previous deal [16] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - exporting countries, and prices of caustic soda and thermal coal [17][19][21] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [34][37][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: This part contains data on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and warehouse receipts and positions of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [45][48][51]