在利空因素主导下，近期氧化铝期货震荡走弱，主力合约期价在2750元／吨一线附近徘徊。 2024年，我国氧化铝贸易结构持续由净进口向净出口转变，今年以来整体延续净出口态势。9月氧化铝 进口量为 5.998万吨，环比下降36.43%，但同比仍增长61.68%；出口量则为24.642万吨，环比增长 36.52%，同比增幅达82.26%。 近期，海外氧化铝产量持续上升，带动现货价格明显回落，进而使得国内进口窗口自9月初以来保持开 启。截至10月16日，西澳FOB氧化铝价格为323美元／吨，较7月高点下跌15%。进口仍有利润空间，截 至10月20日，国内氧化铝进口利润为79.8元／吨。从进口来源看，我国氧化铝进口格局正逐步多元化， 除传统来源地澳大利亚外，已进一步扩展至印尼、越南、印度等多个国家。 国内电解铝产量高位运行 据SMM统计，9月国内电解铝产量为361.48万吨，同比增长1.14%，环比减少3.18%。9月处于传统旺 季，国内电解铝厂铝水比例环比增长1.2个百分点，至76.3%；铸锭量则同比减少8.67%，至约85.7万 吨。 SMM数据显示，9月中国铝土矿产量为488.21万吨，同比下滑2.32%。受雨季持 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Overseas supply growth trend is hard to reverse, and the opening of the import window exacerbates the oversupply situation in the domestic market. Since 2025, overseas alumina production has continued to increase, with the increments mainly from India and Indonesia, while Australia's production has remained basically flat. The import window opened in early September due to the rapid decline in overseas prices, and the increase in imports is expected to further intensify the domestic oversupply situation. Alumina prices are expected to remain under pressure until there are large - scale production cuts due to losses [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Overseas Alumina Supply Side - Overall overseas production: In the first nine months of 2025, overseas alumina cumulative production was 46.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.06%. In September 2025, the output reached 5.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The increasing trend of overseas alumina production is expected to continue until there are large - scale production cuts due to losses [4]. - Production in major countries: - Australia: In September 2025, Australia's alumina output was 1.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.23%. The cumulative output in the first nine months was 13.14 million tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.55% [5]. - India: In September 2025, India's alumina output was 0.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. The cumulative output in the first nine months was 6.52 million tons, a year - on - year significant increase of 5.8%, with the increment mainly from the continuous output expansion of Vedanta smelter [5]. - Indonesia: In September 2025, Indonesia's alumina output was 0.4984 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.21%. The cumulative output in the first nine months was 4.08 million tons, a year - on - year significant increase of 37.48%. With the continuous ramping up of Nanshan Aluminum's capacity, Indonesia's alumina output is expected to increase further this year. There will still be large increments in India and Indonesia in 2026 and 2027 [5]. - Overseas alumina production plan: The total planned production capacity to be put into operation is 11.5 million tons, with 4.5 million tons in 2025, 6 million tons in 2026, and 1 million tons in 2027 [19]. Overseas Price Collapse and Increased Domestic Import Pressure - Overseas price: As of October 9, the FOB price of Australian alumina was $319/ton, down $58 from the high in early August and down 52% from the beginning of the year. The rapid decline in overseas prices led to the opening of the domestic import window in early September [20]. - Domestic import situation: As of October 9, the domestic alumina import profit and loss was 58 yuan/ton. The increase in imports is expected to further exacerbate the domestic oversupply situation, and alumina prices are expected to remain under pressure until there are large - scale production cuts due to losses [20][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] Core Viewpoints - The alumina supply continues to rise, and the import window further expands. The domestic alumina supply surplus is increasing due to the release of复产 and new production capacity, and the overseas alumina supply surplus is also growing. The import window has opened, putting pressure on domestic prices. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In the north, safety and environmental protection rectification in Shanxi continued, and safety controls tightened in Henan and Shanxi near the National Day. In the south, the rainy season in Guangxi affected mining but not downstream production. The spot price of Guinean bauxite decreased, and the long - term agreement price for the fourth quarter is undetermined. Newly arrived ore was 359.9 million tons, including 282.3 million tons from Guinea and 77.6 million tons from Australia. The shipping freight from Guinea to China increased [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The futures rebounded in the middle of the week, and trading volume increased. The import profit expanded. The domestic alumina full - cost was 2900 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 177 yuan/ton. The national alumina production capacity in operation increased by 40 million tons to 9795 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.15% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the operating capacity of Yunnan Honghe New Materials Co., Ltd. increased by 4 million tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 4 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged [14] - **Inventory**: The national alumina inventory increased by 3.9 million tons to 371.9 million tons. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises generally increased, with regional differences. Alumina enterprise inventory slightly increased, port inventory fluctuated, and in - transit/in - warehouse/on - platform inventory continued to rise [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 17703 tons to 150393 tons [15] 2. Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - In August 2025, the import of alumina was 9.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1392%. The export was 18 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.4% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative net export was 126.5 million tons [16] - On September 19, 2025, Brazil sold 3 million tons of alumina at an FOB price of 351 US dollars/ton for November shipment [16] - On September 19, 2025, India sold 3 million tons of alumina at an FOB price of 336 US dollars/ton for December shipment, 4.93 US dollars/ton higher than the previous deal [16] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - exporting countries, and prices of caustic soda and thermal coal [17][19][21] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [34][37][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: This part contains data on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and warehouse receipts and positions of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [45][48][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market remains weak due to supply pressure. Although the procurement activity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased, the downstream buyers are pressing down prices severely due to the oversupply of alumina, and the consumption increment is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory continues to rise, adding pressure to the market. Attention should be paid to the cost support of alumina [2][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/9/5 | 2025/9/12 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3006 | 2914 | -92 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3166 | 3099 | -67 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 202 | 224 | 22 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 355 | 333 | -22 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -1.30 | 123 | 124.3 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 112306 | 138692 | 26386 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 74.5 | 74.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract fell 3.06% last week, closing at 2914 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price of the spot market was reported at 3099 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of -67 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In the bauxite market, the overall supply of domestic ores remains severe. The regular inspections and the slow resumption of closed mines have kept the operating rate of inland mines low, with limited spot circulation in the market, which supports the price. The inventory of imported ores at Chinese ports has started to decline, but the overall supply of imported ores in China is still slightly excessive. Enterprises will continue to make purchases based on rigid demand in the short term, and the differences in price views between supply and demand sides will lead to continued price competition in the market [5]. - On the supply side, alumina supply increased slightly. Some alumina enterprises in the north that were affected by environmental protection measures and reduced production have slightly increased production this week. As of September 11, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36% [5]. - On the consumption side, last week, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong was transferred to Yunnan, while other electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintained stable production. Overall, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable compared with the previous week, and the demand for alumina did not change significantly [5]. - In terms of inventory, the warehouse receipt inventory of alumina futures increased by 11,000 tons last Friday, reaching 139,000 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [2][5][7]. Market Outlook - The Chinese bauxite market showed no significant changes last week. The interaction of multiple bullish and bearish factors led to no substantial adjustment in prices. On the supply side, some previously shut - down production capacities resumed operation last week, resulting in a slight increase in operating capacity. On the consumption side, the procurement activity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased significantly compared with the previous period. However, due to the oversupply of alumina, downstream buyers are pressing down prices severely, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand replenishment, with limited consumption increment. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to increase by 11,000 tons during the week, reaching 139,000 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina remains at a high level, and considering the current weighted average cost of alumina, there is still some profit. It is expected that the operating capacity of alumina will remain high in the future. The consumption side remains stable, and with sufficient supply, buyers have a strong mindset of pressing down prices. The rising warehouse receipt inventory also adds pressure, so alumina will continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the cost support of alumina [2][7]. Industry News - Vedanta announced an investment of over 125 billion rupees to enhance its metal manufacturing capabilities, aiming to strengthen the domestic supply of key materials necessary for electric vehicle production to meet the needs of India's rapidly growing electric vehicle (EV) industry and contribute to India's vision of sustainable and clean transportation. The investment involves expanding the aluminum smelting business, increasing the added value of aluminum products, building a new zinc alloy factory, installing a zinc roasting furnace, and expanding the ferrochrome production capacity [8]. - Jiaokou County Wangzhuang Pig Iron Co., Ltd. won the exploration right of the Fengjiagang block bauxite in Jiaokou County, Shanxi Province, with the highest bid of 3.1728 billion yuan [8]. - Metro Mining's operating data for August 2025 showed that the shipment volume of its Queensland bauxite mine project increased by 6% year - on - year to 753,101 wet tons. As of now, Metro Mining's total bauxite shipment volume has reached 3.4 million wet tons, and its target shipment volume for 2025 is 6.5 - 7 million wet tons [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina supply continues to rise, and the import window has opened. Domestic alumina supply is increasing due to复产 and new - capacity releases, leading to a growing supply surplus. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [1][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In the north, strict inspections in Henan and policy - related impacts in Shanxi limited ore production. Frequent rainfall also reduced ore output. Imported ore prices were stable, and the shipping volume is expected to increase in October. Newly - arrived ore was 3.406 million tons this period, including 2.272 million tons from Guinea and 1.055 million tons from Australia. The shipping cost from Guinea to China dropped to $23.5 per ton [1][11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina declined last week. The import window opened due to large - scale tenders from downstream aluminum plants, and market sentiment was bearish. The theoretical import profit was 44 yuan per ton. The national alumina production capacity in operation increased by 800,000 tons to 97.55 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.1% [2][12] - **Demand**: Domestically, the operating capacity of Yunnan Honghe New Materials Co., Ltd. increased by 20,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 20,000 tons to 44.163 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged [13] - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the national alumina inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 3.68 million tons. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. Alumina enterprise inventory remained low, and port inventory increased significantly [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 32,435 tons to 138,692 tons. The futures price is expected to be weak and oscillating, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [14] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - **Import Cost**: As of September 11, the Australian alumina quotation was about $336 per ton, down $18.5 from the previous week. The theoretical import profit was 44 yuan per ton [15] - **Transaction in Western Australia**: On September 11, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia at an FOB price of $340 per ton, down $10 from the previous deal [15] - **Ore Use in Shanxi**: Due to poor domestic ore acquisition in Shanxi, some alumina enterprises increased the use of imported ore. One alumina plant restored its operating capacity from 1 million tons to 1.4 million tons [15] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][25][27] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [32][36][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: This part contains data on electrolytic aluminum plant and alumina plant alumina inventories, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the quantity of warehouse receipts and open interest of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [42][45][48]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for alumina is "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina supply continues to recover, and the supply surplus widens. The spot price of alumina declined last week, and the market sentiment is bearish. The supply of alumina is increasing, while the demand is also rising both domestically and overseas. The inventory of alumina has increased, and the registered warehouse receipts on the SHFE have also risen. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [1][2][13][16] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, the含税 price of 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 658 yuan/ton; and in Guizhou, the arrival - at - factory含税 price of 60/6 bauxite was 596 yuan/ton. Shanxi's ore production was affected by policies, rainfall, and the parade. Imported ore: The ALD Guinea ore price index was 74 - 76 dollars/dry ton. Newly - arrived ore was 456.2 million tons, including 319.1 million tons from Guinea and 137.0 million tons from Australia. The freight from Guinea to China dropped by 1 dollar to 25 dollars/ton [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina fell last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3040 - 3120 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 3101 yuan/ton, down 82.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was 3190 - 3230 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The market was bearish, and buyers' willingness to purchase decreased. The domestic full - cost of alumina was 2871 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 361 yuan/ton. The national alumina production capacity was 11462 million tons, with 9675 million tons in operation, an increase of 170 million tons from last week, and the operating rate was 84.4% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Yunnan Honghe New Materials' operating capacity increased by 7 million tons to about 30 million tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 4414.3 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons. Overseas, the New Zealand Tiwai Point electrolytic aluminum plant was resuming production, with an operating capacity of 33.8 million tons and about to reach full - capacity. Indonesia's Juwana Aluminum started power - on testing in early September, expected to produce 15 - 20 million tons this year. The overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 2969.4 million tons, an increase of 10.4 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of September 4th, the national alumina inventory was 360.9 million tons, an increase of 11.2 million tons from last week. The electrolytic aluminum inventory increased significantly, the alumina factory inventory increased implicitly, and the in - transit volume decreased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 112306 tons, an increase of 23480 tons from last week [15] 2. Summary of Key Events and News in the Industry Chain during the Week - On September 5th, a Xinjiang aluminum plant tendered for 1 million tons of alumina at a delivered price of 3240 yuan/ton, with suppliers mainly delivering Shandong goods due to the railway freight discount in Shandong [17] - On September 5th, a Chongqing electrolytic aluminum enterprise purchased 0.5 million tons of alumina in Guizhou at a delivered price of 3350 yuan/ton [17] - Overseas, the tender sales of spot alumina increased, with the origin mainly in Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and India, and the shipping dates mostly from early to late October, potentially increasing domestic supply [17] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost End - Data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipments from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces were presented [18][20][22] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina were provided [35][37][39] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventory, alumina plants' alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and open interest were shown [46][49][52]

Group 1 - The alumina market experienced significant adjustments in the first half of the year, with prices declining from a peak of 5540 yuan/ton to a low of 2663 yuan/ton, maintaining a wide fluctuation between 2700 and 3600 yuan/ton after May [1] - The cyclical logic behind the price movements includes industry profit contraction, active production cuts, price rebounds, resumption of production, and price declines back to cost levels [1] - In the fourth quarter, alumina is expected to continue its wide fluctuation pattern, with cost support remaining due to the slow decline in bauxite prices, but upward price movement requires substantial supply-side disruptions [1] Group 2 - As of the end of August, domestic alumina operating capacity was approximately 95 million tons, with a peak close to 96 million tons, and about 1.6 million tons of capacity expected to resume following maintenance [1] - Demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain stable, but growth is limited due to capacity constraints, while non-aluminum demand shows seasonal characteristics and overall demand growth is far behind supply [1] - By 2025, the domestic alumina market is projected to have a surplus of approximately 2% or 2 million tons [1] Group 3 - In the overseas market, projects in India and Indonesia are ramping up, leading to a shift from a shortage to a surplus in the overseas supply landscape since the third quarter [2] - By 2025, the overseas alumina surplus is expected to be around 160 million tons, with a surplus rate of 2.7% [2] - Overall, the global alumina supply shifted from a slight shortage to a surplus in the third quarter, with significant surplus pressures expected in both domestic and overseas markets in the second half of the year [2] Group 4 - Guinea bauxite shipments have shown fluctuations due to the rainy season but remain at high levels year-on-year, with expectations of overall surplus in bauxite supply [2] - The CIF price of Guinea bauxite is projected at $74.5/ton, with marginal cash costs for domestic alumina production estimated between 2850 and 2950 yuan/ton, and total costs between 3070 and 3170 yuan/ton, indicating a neutral profit level for the industry [2] Group 5 - In the short term, without supply disruptions, alumina prices may remain in a bottoming phase, with current prices near the cash loss threshold for smelting [3] - The price support level is expected around 2900 to 3000 yuan/ton, with an anticipated price fluctuation range of 2900 to 3300 yuan/ton [3] - Despite significant supply surplus pressures, seasonal production limits and policy disruptions in the fourth quarter may lead to a temporary price rebound, with potential peaks around 3500 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1][5] Core View of the Report - The rumor of Shanxi's ore policy has little impact, and the alumina supply continues to recover slowly. The domestic alumina supply has turned into a slight surplus with the release of复产 and new production capacity, and the generated warehouse receipts put pressure on the futures market. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend [5][15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Last week, domestic ore prices remained stable. The含税 price of Shanxi 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 was 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 bauxite's delivered含税 price was 596 yuan/ton. The rumored Shanxi bauxite policy mainly affects mines exploiting bauxite under the guise of ceramic soil, most of which are already shut - down. Henan has strict inspections with low mine operation rates. Southern ports were temporarily closed due to rain and typhoons, reducing imported bauxite unloading. The imported ore price range is 73 - 76 dollars/dry ton. Downstream factories have sufficient ore reserves. The shipping volume from Bofa is decreasing. Newly - arrived ore was 340.7 million tons, including 281 million tons from Guinea and 53.7 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China is 25 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: Last week, alumina spot prices dropped. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3200 - 3270 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index was 3243.3 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The imported alumina port quotation was 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere was light. The northern market traded 1.1 million tons of spot alumina, with the weighted trading price at 3197 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The Australian import price was about 3230 yuan/ton. The domestic full cost of alumina was 2810 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 488 yuan/ton. The industry's good profit drives enterprises to increase production. The national alumina production capacity is 11302 million tons, with 9595 million tons in operation, an increase of 60 million tons from last week, and the operation rate is 84.9% [13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Guangxi Baise Yinhai Aluminum's operating capacity increased to 14 million tons, up 2 million tons; Yunnan Honghe New Materials' operating capacity increased to 10 million tons, up 5 million tons. Henan Wanjji Aluminum plans to transfer 58 million tons of capacity to Xinjiang in 2026 and start production in 2027. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 4392.3 million tons, up 7 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 2959 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of August 14, the national alumina inventory was 337.5 million tons, up 9 million tons from last week. The inventory at aluminum plants increased, that of alumina enterprises slightly decreased, port inventory fluctuated, and the inventory at delivery warehouses continued to rise [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 65771 tons, up 43807 tons from last week. The domestic futures price was weak. The anti - involution narrative and mine - end disturbances have no substantial impact. The Guinea ore price in the third quarter is about 75 dollars, and the alumina supply has turned slightly surplus, generating warehouse receipts and pressuring the futures [15] 2. Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain This Week - **Limited Impact of Parade - Related Production Restrictions**: Some high - energy - consuming industries in the north received parade - related production restriction notices. Most alumina producers in Shanxi, Shandong, and Hebei did not receive such notices. Only one enterprise in Henan may reduce roasting production around the parade, with no significant impact on medium - term output. Transportation of trucks below National V may be restricted from August 16 [16] - **Two Alumina Transactions in Western Australia**: On August 14, two transactions of a total of 6 million tons of alumina occurred in Western Australia, with the FOB price at 374 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars/ton from August 11, for September - late shipment [16] - **Bidding Results of an Electrolytic Aluminum Plant in Xinjiang**: On August 11, an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang bid for 1 million tons of alumina. The winning price was 3490 - 3530 yuan/ton, with the low - price range down 20 - 40 yuan/ton from last week [17] 3. Monitoring of Key Data Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost End - The section includes charts on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and steam coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [18][21][23][27][29][31] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The section contains charts on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the ratio of SHFE electrolytic aluminum to alumina futures, and domestic alumina weekly supply - demand balance. The table shows the changes in alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacities and supply - demand differences from April to August 2025 [34][38][40][43] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The section includes charts on alumina inventory at electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit, ports, total social inventory, and SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions [46][49][55][56][58]

SHMET 网讯：山西省自然资源厅有关调整部分矿种出让登记权限的通知提振市场情绪，日内资金活跃度抬升，氧化铝主力ao2509合约涨幅超4%，日内成交 量增加12.3万手至29.6万手，持仓量减少1.87万手至9.61万手。 今日交易所多空持仓排行榜前20席位数据显示，氧化铝主力合约呈现多空双减景象，空头减仓数量远大于多头减仓，空头持仓大幅减少1.38万手至55280 手，空头持仓减少5601手至55708手，多空比由0.89增至1.01。次主力ao2601合约呈现多空双增景象，均增近2万手，空头持仓增加略大于多头。 观察主力持仓排行榜前20席位可见，多空榜首国泰君安期货席位今日进行多增空减操作，多头持仓增加664手，空头持仓减少4016手，净空头持仓缩减至 2788手中信期货席位今日扩大其多头持仓规模，其多头增仓超2000手，一跃成为多头持仓排名第二，从净空头持仓203手变为净多头持仓2696手。另外，永 安期货席位在增持多单之际减持空单，华泰期货席位多空双减，同样由空翻多，或表明对继续上行仍存在期待。然而，方正中期期货席位和广发期货席位多 减空增，由多翻空，中泰期货席位多头减持大于空头减持，也从净多头持仓转 ...

国投安信期货表示，近期氧化铝现货上涨趋势缓和，国内氧化铝运行产能回升至历史高位进入过剩状 态，几内亚矿企存在复产预期，但上期所仓单库存依然仅两万余吨，期货暂难深跌，关注现货成交价格 变化。 7月17日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘绿。其中，氧化铝期货主力合约开盘报3100.0元/吨，今日盘中 低位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，氧化铝主力最高触及3123.0元，下方探低3055.0元，跌幅达2.39%。 目前来看，氧化铝行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于氧化铝后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 南华期货（603093）指出，有消息表示顺达矿业将于8月复产，矿端报价有所下调。基本面方面，随着 氧化铝利润修复，企业持续复产陆续发生，氧化铝运行产能持续增加，预计累库将继续。目前考虑到7 月将有进口氧化铝到港且当前氧化铝仍有生产利润复产与新投产还在继续，同时随着新疆发运问题解决 各地向新疆交仓增加，氧化铝挤仓风险降低。总的来说，氧化铝供应过剩预期暂时还未改变，随着期现 价差拉平，上行动力有所减弱短期或维持高位震荡，推荐逢高沽空远月合约。 铜冠金源期货分析称，暂时氧化铝基于仍较为可控的有限现货流动量和向上惯性，现 ...