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银行二永债投资机会盘点:适度信用下沉策略下的二永债投资机会
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-07-25 15:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current spread compression space of high - quality large - bank capital bonds is limited, and although the 10 - year variety has relative value, the overall return space is also low. Therefore, to increase returns, it is recommended to implement a moderate credit - sinking strategy for bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds (referred to as "two - tier and perpetual bonds") under strict risk control, avoiding provinces with a large number of high - risk institutions [6][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bank Two - tier and Perpetual Bond Investment Screening Framework - **Issuer's Subject Qualifications and Operating Indicators**: A core risk - control framework covering six dimensions including equity nature, asset scale, operating region, asset quality, operating performance, and inter - bank liability ratio is constructed. It focuses on asset scale and central and state - owned enterprise equity nature, controls key operating indicators such as core tier - one capital adequacy ratio and ROE, and avoids provinces with a large number of high - risk institutions [5][7]. - **Central Bank's Financial Institution Rating Results**: As of the end of 2023, banks within the safety boundary accounted for 98.22% of the banking system's asset scale, and 357 banks were in a high - risk state. Large banks are in the "green zone", while some rural and urban commercial banks are high - risk banks [5][8]. - **Domestic Systemically Important Banks (D - SIBs) List**: In 2023, 20 domestic systemically important banks were identified, including 6 state - owned commercial banks, 9 joint - stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks. They can all be included in the investment white list due to their low overall risk level [6][16]. - **Historical Non - Active Redemption of Bank Two - tier and Perpetual Bonds**: As of July 19, 2025, there have been 72 cases of secondary capital bonds not actively redeemed, with a total non - redemption amount of 50.677 billion yuan. Rural commercial banks account for 73.61% of the issuers, and regions such as Liaoning, Shandong, and Hubei have a high number of non - redemption cases [6][17]. - **Regional Fiscal Revenue Quality and Debt Pressure**: It is recommended to prioritize provinces with high - quality fiscal revenue and controllable debt, such as Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong, and Fujian, and avoid high - risk regions like Liaoning, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia [6][29]. 3.2 Investment Opportunities for Two - tier and Perpetual Bonds under the Moderate Credit - Sinking Strategy - **Issuer Selection Criteria**: Focus on state - owned and central - enterprise - controlled banks with an asset scale between 400 billion and 1 trillion yuan, with a core tier - one capital adequacy ratio of not less than 7.5%, ROE higher than 3%, an inter - bank liability ratio within 30%, and avoid provinces with a large number of high - risk institutions [33]. - **Recommended Investment Targets**: Recommended targets include 25 Tianjin Rural Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01, 25 Guangxi Beibu Gulf Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01, and other bonds with a yield of over 2.5% [40].