债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券月报】 长久期信用债后续如何参与，何时止盈？ ——7 月信用债策略月报 5 月下旬以来信用债挖票息行情向长端演绎，长久期信用债净买入规模明显放 量，市场参与热情较高。去年资产荒行情极致演绎下长久期信用债在同期时点 也走出了独立行情，但去年 8 月后债市波动较大，长久期信用债流动性不足的 风险暴露，估值出现明显调整。今年机构参与长端品种相对谨慎、关注止盈时 点，近期股债翘板效应扰动债市，后续长久期信用债如何参与？ 长久期信用债行情演绎期间机构参与情况如何？ 机构净买入力量是影响长久期信用债行情演绎的重要因素。1）5-7y 中票：去 年长久期信用债行情演绎阶段机构净买入量较前期涨幅较小，但部分时点规模 相对较高，进一步推动了其利差收窄。今年 5 月下旬以来净买入量明显增长， 机构行为对该期限区间的行情驱动较去年或有增强。2）7-10y 中票：基金净买 入力量的波动是影响利差变化的重要因素，两轮长久期信用债行情中基金连续 大规模净买入的同时信用利差也出现快速收窄，而在去年 8 月中下旬基金转 为大规模净卖出，利差开始出现快速大幅走阔。3）10y 以上中票：今年基金参 与力量有 ...

今年银行股代替了长期国债。 去年长期国债涨疯，今年它们休息了，长期国债从今年2月开始调整，到目前基本是一个持平的水平， 等于今年入市的投资者，在国债市场打了个平手。 但是银行股却相反，2025年至今没有一家银行企业出现下跌，全部都是在上涨。今年有18家银行先后创 出历史新高。有16家银行涨幅超过20%，有32家银行涨幅超过10%。国有大行工农中建全部创历史新 高。申万银行指数近一年涨幅为35.49%，位列行业第11位；近两年涨幅为52.11%，位列行业首位。 由此看，今年银行股上涨的逻辑和去年长期国债上涨的逻辑是一致的，由于经济下行压力大，好的资产 难觅，人们更倾向于高分红的行业，长期债券的利息更高，相对风险较低，所以资金进入长期债券。 去年以来降准降息预期浓厚，央行停止了国债买卖，形成预期差，导致今年长期债券在前半年市场处于 调整和波动中。投资者只能寻找具有相同资质的替代性资产，银行股的高分红能够替代长期债券的高利 率，而稳定的股价更类似于长期债券。 投资长期债券的资金和购买银行股的资金是一样的。保险资金是购买长期债券的主力。前几年主要配置 地方城投债、房地产债券后来转移到长期债券，今年以来长期债券调整，他 ...

随着银行理财估值被整改，理财产品将再度回归净值化本源， 未来银行理财子公司必须根据市场行情及时优化资产配置策 略，才能解决理财产品"高收益、估值平稳与高流动性"三者难 以兼得的挑战。 作者： 陈植 封图：图虫创意 一位股份制银行华东地区分行零售业务部门主管赵永强发现，今年以来自己的投资者教育工作压力 悄然加大。 "由于银行理财子自建估值模型整改导致部分理财产品净值波动加大，我每周都要前往各个支行， 督导网点理财经理加大投资者教育，提醒投资者需理性看待近期理财产品净值波动加大，不要因产 品净值跌幅较大就盲目赎回。"他在7月2日接受记者采访时表示。 尤其在2—3月与5月债市回调期间，赵永强每天都得频繁查看各网点代销的理财产品最新净值波动 与赎回状况，一旦发现某些产品净值波动偏大且赎回金额异常增长，他迅速联系银行理财子公司， 要求后者赶紧采取措施压低产品净值波动。 普益标准数据显示，受5月债市调整导致理财产品净值波动有所加大影响，截至5月末，银行理财 公司存续的开放式固定收益类理财产品（不含现金管理类产品）近1个月年化收益率平均为 2.84%，较4月下降0.35个百分点。 然而，随着监管部门持续督促银行理财子公司整 ...

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory changes regarding self-built valuation models for bank wealth management subsidiaries have increased the pressure on investor education and have led to significant adjustments in investment strategies to manage net asset value fluctuations [2][6][12]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes and Impact - Regulatory authorities have prohibited bank wealth management subsidiaries from using self-built valuation models, requiring them to adopt standardized valuation methods [6][4]. - The implementation of these regulations aims to restore the fundamental nature of net asset value and ensure fair competition among wealth management institutions [6][4]. - As of the end of May, the average annualized yield of open-ended fixed-income wealth management products decreased to 2.84%, down 0.35 percentage points from April, reflecting the impact of market adjustments [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Adjustments - Wealth management subsidiaries are shifting their investment strategies by reducing long-term bonds and low-rated credit bonds while increasing short-term high-rated bonds to mitigate net asset value fluctuations [3][11]. - The need to comply with regulatory requirements has led to a significant reduction in the net buying of long-term credit bonds, with net purchases dropping from 27 billion to 9 billion for 7-10 year bonds in June [13]. - The overall bond yield decline has prompted wealth management subsidiaries to explore alternative high-dividend investment options such as REITs and preferred stocks to enhance overall product returns [12]. Group 3: Challenges in Valuation and Investor Education - The self-built valuation models previously used by wealth management subsidiaries aimed to smooth out net asset value fluctuations but have been deemed unfair and misleading [5][4]. - Investor education has become increasingly important as fluctuations in net asset values have led to irrational redemption behaviors among investors [2]. - Wealth management subsidiaries are now required to closely monitor and adjust their asset allocation strategies in response to market conditions to maintain investor confidence [11][10].

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 29 日 继续关注 2%以上的高票息信用债 ——信用分析周报（2025/6/23-2025/6/27） 投资要点： 本周（6/23-6/27）市场概览： 证券分析师 联系人 1）一级市场：本周传统信用债发行量、偿还量、净融资额环比上周均有所减少，资 产支持证券净融资额环比上周减少；本周 AA 主体产业债，AA+、AAA 主体金融债 发行利率大幅上升，AA+主体产业债发行利率下降，其余各券种各评级债券发行利 率均有不超过 4BP 的变动。 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周减少 1299 亿元，传统信用债换手率较上 周整体下行，资产支持证券换手率有所上涨。本周信用债收益率整体小幅波动，长 端表现好于中短端。总体来看，本周大部分行业信用利差小幅波动，AA+电子行业 的信用利差大幅收缩。具体来看，本周 AA 房地产行业信用利差较上周分别走扩 14BP；AA+电子、电气设备行业信用利差较上周分别压缩 62BP、9BP，钢铁行业 信用利差较上周走扩 12BP；AAA 电气设备行业信用利差较上周压缩 9BP。 廖志明 SAC：S135052 ...

Credit Spread Performance - In May, the supply of credit bonds decreased, leading to a general decline in credit spreads, with lower-rated credit bonds experiencing a more significant narrowing [1] - The AAA-rated industrial bonds saw a uniform narrowing of credit spreads across all sectors, with the real estate sector showing the largest reduction of 18.98 basis points, while the financial holding sector had the smallest reduction of 2.36 basis points [8][9] - For private placement bonds, the pharmaceutical and biological sector had the largest narrowing of 17.18 basis points, while the environmental protection sector had the smallest at 0.99 basis points [8][9] City Investment Bonds - In May, credit spreads for city investment bonds across major ratings and maturities all declined, with the largest narrowing observed in Qinghai province for both public and private bonds [1] - The overall trend indicates that credit spreads for city investment bonds are moving downward across various regions and issuer levels [1] Financial Bonds - The credit spreads for bank perpetual bonds and other financial instruments generally narrowed, with most varieties experiencing a decrease, although some maturity spreads widened [1] - Securities companies' subordinated bonds and insurance companies' capital replenishment bonds saw a complete decline in credit spreads during the month [1] Historical Context - By the end of May, various types of credit bonds maintained historically low credit spreads, particularly for short-duration non-financial credit bonds and short-duration financial bonds, while medium to long-term financial bonds remained at relatively high historical percentiles [1][6]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 15 日 收益率小幅下行，5Y 表现较好 ——信用分析周报（2025/6/9-2025/6/13） 投资要点： 本周（6/9-6/13）市场概览： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 3）负面舆情：国厚资产管理股份有限公司所发行的"H9 国厚 01"展期；广东蒙泰 高新纤维股份有限公司主体评级调低，其所发行的"蒙泰转债"债项评级调低；青 岛冠中生态股份有限公司主体评级调低，其所发行的"冠中转债"债项评级调低； 武汉天盈投资集团有限公司所发行的"H20 天盈 1"发生实质违约，所发行的"H20 天盈 2"展期。 本周市场分析：本周公开市场共有 9309 亿元逆回购到期，本周央行累计开展 8582 亿元逆回购操作，实现全周净回笼 727 亿元。本周 DR001 由周初的 1.33%回升至 1.45%。 投资建议：总体来看，本周不同行业信用利差整体小幅压缩，少部分行业利差大幅 走扩。城投债方面，本周城投债信用利差短端和中长端小幅压缩，10Y 以上城投利 差小幅 ...

Group 1: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts on Credit Bonds - The impact of deposit rate cuts on credit bond performance varies; if the cuts lead to a decline in policy rates, credit spreads typically widen, while if they precede rate cuts, spreads may narrow [1][9][10] - Historical analysis shows that after deposit rate cuts, the net buying power for credit bonds from funds and insurance is usually limited, indicating a weak immediate impact [1][15][9] - The short-term influence of deposit rate cuts on credit spreads is primarily driven by market sentiment and conditions rather than direct attribution to the event [1][15][9] Group 2: June Credit Bond Strategy - In June, the demand for credit bonds may weaken marginally, and the momentum for spread narrowing is expected to slow down due to seasonal trends [1][25][28] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile, with institutions focusing on high-yield bonds to potentially drive structural narrowing in credit spreads, although a trend compression is unlikely [1][25][28] - The liquidity environment is expected to be stable, with the central bank showing a strong willingness to support liquidity, which may help mitigate risks of significant capital outflows [1][28][26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Strategies - For urban investment bonds, focus on low-grade bonds within 3 years and medium to high-grade bonds in the 4-5 year range, particularly in regions with strong financial capabilities [2][3] - In the real estate sector, attention should be on AA-rated bonds from central and state-owned enterprises with maturities of 1-2 years, as lower-grade real estate bonds have shown significant spread compression [2][3] - For cyclical bonds, particularly coal and steel, a cautious approach is recommended, with a focus on high-grade issuers to avoid tail risks associated with declining market conditions [2][3]

Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固定收益专题 2025 年 5 月 11 日 【华福固收】长端信用品种如何投资？ ➢ 收益率变动幅度：熊市长端信用债抗跌性较好 期限越长的信用债涨跌幅度通常小于期限较短的信用债，即在牛市阶段中短端 品种表现更好，但熊市阶段长端品种抗跌性更强。这个主要是受到品种流动性 和投资者结构的影响，短端品种交易灵活度较高、配置稳定性强，是大部分机 构投资者的持仓首选，而长端品种的持仓机构多为负债端稳定的投资者，买卖 力量相对较弱，整体较为稳定。 从信用债各个品种来看，和长端二永债相比，长端普信债的抗跌性更强。 ➢ 区间收益回报：牛市长端信用债综合收益更高 长端信用债在牛市中综合收益率表现突出，而在熊市中收益表现略输于短端 品种，震荡市中5-7Y的收益表现更好。在利率下行阶段，长久期品种的票息 收益和骑乘收益优势明显，持有体验比短端品种更佳，尤其是7-10Y的信用债 整体、中短票和二永债，区间涨幅大多在两位数以上。在利率震荡期间，无 论是普信债还是二级资本债，5-7Y的收益回报相对更好。 从信用债各个品种来看，5-7Y二级资本债在牛市中跑输普信债的概率更大，而 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券月报】 回归基本面，信用债如何配置？ ——5 月信用债策略月报 1、城投债方面，关注 3y 以内低等级与 4-5y 中高等级投资机会。对江苏、浙 江等区域，综合实力较强、存量债券余额较多，叠加化债利好保护，可在 3y 以内下沉至 AA-品种；四川、山东、河南、湖南、湖北等地可在 2y 以内下沉 至 AA-品种，天津、重庆等区域可在 2y 以内下沉至 AA(2)品种。 2、地产债方面，关注 1-2y 央国企地产 AA 及以上品种。从板块比价来看，当 前地产债收益率具有一定吸引力，1-2yAA 品种利差在 88-98BP。4 月国务院常 务会议指出要持续稳定股市，政治局会议指出持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势， 后续仍可关注 1-2y 央国企地产 AA 及以上品种机会。但行业信用风险尚未出 清，景气度预计仍偏低，低等级主体谨慎下沉。 3、周期债方面，煤炭债短端下沉、中高等级拉久期至 3y，钢铁债规避尾部风 险。对短期风险可控的隐含评级 AA 煤企 1-2y 品种适当下沉，中高等级可拉 长久期至 3y。今年以来动力煤供需两弱，煤炭价格持续下跌，关注煤价止跌 回稳情况，若景气度持续下 ...