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逆周期变量
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浙商证券李超:消费是2026最重要逆周期变量,看多A股
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-04 00:58
Group 1 - The chief economist of Zheshang Securities, Li Chao, emphasizes the necessity of maintaining an active fiscal policy with a certain level of deficit for 2026 [1] - Li Chao indicates that a moderately loose monetary policy will likely continue, with potential interest rate cuts still on the table [1] - The focus for 2026 should shift towards the importance of consumption as a key counter-cyclical variable, contrasting with the past where real estate was the main counter-cyclical factor [1] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market in 2026 should not overly focus on interest rates but rather on risk appetite, suggesting that a sustained optimistic market sentiment could lead to a prolonged "slow bull" market through valuation increases [1]