Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that some participants view the risks in the labor market as a primary concern, overshadowing inflation risks [1] - There are signs of weakening in actual economic activity and the labor market, leading to concerns about future economic conditions, especially if restrictive policies continue [1] - Participants agree that despite a decrease in uncertainty regarding inflation and economic outlook, caution is necessary when adjusting monetary policy [1]

美联储会议纪要：与会者一致认为，通胀上升和劳动力市场疲软的风险已减弱，但仍然处于较高水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, highlighting increasing risks related to rising unemployment and inflation [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The FOMC committee unanimously voted to keep the interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its balance sheet at the pace announced in the March meeting [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The committee noted that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has increased further [1] - Officials are monitoring the dual risks of high unemployment and high inflation, which they believe have both risen [1] Group 3: Trade Policy Impact - Trump's trade policies have introduced a wave of uncertainty across the economy [1] - Economists generally expect that comprehensive tariffs will lead to higher inflation and hinder economic growth, creating a conflict between the goals of price stability and maximum employment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials indicated that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have intensified, despite a negative GDP growth in the first quarter, which they attribute mainly to significant fluctuations in trade statistics [1] Group 1 - The first quarter GDP growth turned negative, but the Federal Reserve still believes the underlying economy remains strong [1] - The volatility in trade statistics, particularly a surge in imports before new tariffs, was a major factor leading to the GDP contraction [1] - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand at a robust pace, despite the fluctuations in net exports [1] Group 2 - The new language in the policy statement acknowledges the increased risks associated with rising unemployment and inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has indicated that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have intensified [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's committee has assessed that the likelihood of an increase in the unemployment rate has grown [1] - The committee also noted that the risk of inflation rising has become more pronounced [1]