他认为，这说明目前的货币政策对经济的抑制作用并不像想象中那么大，利率可能已处于既不刺激也不 抑制经济增长的中性地带。 他强调，美联储目前面临双重风险：一方面是关税政策可能带来的长期通胀压力，这种影响可能需要数 年才能完全显现；另一方面是失业率突然上升的风险。他表示，美联储需要更多数据来判断通胀和劳动 力市场哪一个才是更主要的影响力量，进而决定未来的政策方向。 【基本面消息】 美联储卡什卡利周一表示，美国的基准利率可能已接近"中性水平"，未来的货币政策将取决于经济数据 的走向。卡什卡利指出，尽管过去两年市场一直预期经济会放缓，但美国经济表现出的韧性远超预期。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货1月6日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计581436千克，今日仓单较上一日 减少88111千克。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报18126元/千克，最高触及19714元/千克，最低触及18082 元/千克，截止收盘报19452元/千克，上涨7.06%。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 89659 | -7590 | | | 外运华东 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, highlighting increasing risks related to rising unemployment and inflation [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The FOMC committee unanimously voted to keep the interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its balance sheet at the pace announced in the March meeting [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The committee noted that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has increased further [1] - Officials are monitoring the dual risks of high unemployment and high inflation, which they believe have both risen [1] Group 3: Trade Policy Impact - Trump's trade policies have introduced a wave of uncertainty across the economy [1] - Economists generally expect that comprehensive tariffs will lead to higher inflation and hinder economic growth, creating a conflict between the goals of price stability and maximum employment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials indicated that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have intensified, despite a negative GDP growth in the first quarter, which they attribute mainly to significant fluctuations in trade statistics [1] Group 1 - The first quarter GDP growth turned negative, but the Federal Reserve still believes the underlying economy remains strong [1] - The volatility in trade statistics, particularly a surge in imports before new tariffs, was a major factor leading to the GDP contraction [1] - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand at a robust pace, despite the fluctuations in net exports [1] Group 2 - The new language in the policy statement acknowledges the increased risks associated with rising unemployment and inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has indicated that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have intensified [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's committee has assessed that the likelihood of an increase in the unemployment rate has grown [1] - The committee also noted that the risk of inflation rising has become more pronounced [1]