Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term trading logic of precious metals has shifted from geopolitical hedging to "energy shock - inflation increase - delayed interest rate cuts". Precious metals have entered a stage of re - pricing between hedging attributes and interest rate constraints. Gold has been in a continuous correction, and silver has fallen more significantly due to high volatility and resonance with risk assets [2]. 3. Summary by Section Gold - **Logic**: - The positive reaction of gold to geopolitical risks is partially offset by higher interest rate expectations as the market focuses more on the secondary impact of damaged energy facilities on global inflation [3]. - The Fed maintains interest rates and sends a more cautious easing signal, leading to a re - contraction of the market's expectation of interest rate cuts this year. The real interest rate and the US dollar are relatively strong, suppressing the valuation of gold [3]. - The continuous outflow of gold ETFs indicates that some Western allocation funds are turning to a wait - and - see attitude at high levels, and gold has shifted from a "safe asset" to a "high - volatility asset" in short - term pricing, with significantly reduced price elasticity [3]. - **Outlook**: If oil prices remain high and inflation expectations continue to be revised upwards, gold will face short - term pressure from delayed interest rate cuts. If geopolitical conflicts further spill over and cause more widespread risk aversion, the medium - term allocation value of gold still exists. In the short term, gold may continue its weak consolidation under high volatility, and the medium - term direction depends on whether the oil price shock can be continuously transmitted to core inflation and the Fed's tolerance for slow growth [3]. Silver - **Logic**: - Silver has both precious metal and industrial metal attributes. While the precious metal sector is under pressure, it is also dragged down by the decline in global growth and risk appetite, so its decline is usually greater than that of gold [4]. - Silver had a rapid increase and a more crowded position in the early stage. When the macro - economic expectations change rapidly, it is easier to trigger profit - taking and passive position reduction, resulting in an amplified price adjustment [4]. - If the outflow of gold ETFs, rising interest rates, and a general decline in commodities resonate, silver will bear the dual pressures of a retreat in its financial attribute and a cooling of its industrial attribute, and its short - term performance is often weaker [4]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, silver may still be mainly in a high - amplitude adjustment, waiting for the re - balance of oil prices, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields. If the market gradually shifts from "re - inflation concerns" to "slow growth + return of easing", the elasticity of silver relative to gold is expected to be re - reflected. Currently, silver should be regarded as a high - volatility asset, and attention should be paid to the repair window brought about by the change in macro - economic expectations [4]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2569.19, down 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, down 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, up 0.39% on March 19, 2026 [46]. - **Precious Metal Index**: On March 19, 2026, the precious metal index was 4048.12, with a daily decline of 4.22%, a 5 - day decline of 7.87%, a 1 - month decline of 5.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.85% [48].

Core Viewpoint - Global investors are focusing on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is expected to deliver what is perceived as his final speech at the global central bank annual meeting, amidst unprecedented complexities in the economic landscape [1] Group 1: Economic Challenges - Inflation is rising again, creating additional pressure on monetary policy [1] - Tariff policies are disrupting markets, adding to the uncertainty faced by investors [1] - The labor market is showing signs of cracks, indicating potential weaknesses in the economy [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - There is speculation on whether Powell will maintain a cautious stance in light of these challenges [1] - The potential impact of his speech on global markets is a key concern for investors [1]