在上行方面，银价或在88.00美元区域遇到阻力。若突破此处，将把焦点转向100.00美元的整数关口和 104.00美元区域的日内阻力。 支撑位在71.37美元的月低点，低于此处为12月初的高点和12月中旬的低点，位于60.00美元区域。 米兰表示："我可能希望看到年内降息略高于一个百分点。"米兰是在特朗普宣布选择凯文.沃什担任美 联储新主席之后发表这番言论的，他对沃什上任后表现充满期待。 此外米兰还表示，对金属市场价格波动不作过多解读。 目前据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为8.9%，维持利率不变的概率为91.1%。 美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为22.5%，维持利率不变的概率为76.0%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为1.5%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为46%。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 今日周三(2月4日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于87.40一线上方，今日开盘于84.75美元/盎司，截至发 稿，国际白银暂报87.71美元/盎司，上涨3.10%，最高触及88.24美元/盎司，最低下探83.22美元/盎司， 目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant drop, with gold and silver recording their largest single-day declines in 40 years, primarily triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which raised expectations of a stronger dollar and reduced the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities [1] Group 1 - The nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish stance, has led to market speculation that aggressive rate cuts are unlikely, despite his recent public support for such measures [1] - The rapid rebound of the dollar has decreased the appeal of precious metals for global buyers, contributing to the market's downturn [1] - Investors have been taking profits after recent highs in precious metal prices, which has intensified selling pressure and increased market volatility [1]

目前，美联储基准利率区间为3.5%至3.75%。在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)19名政策制定者给出的中 性利率估计中，区间从2.6%到3.9%不等，中位数为3%。 米兰周二在接受采访时指出："很难说当前政策处于中性水平。我认为政策显然偏紧，正在拖累经济。 今年降息幅度很可能需要远超100个基点。" 就在上个月，美联储已连续第三次下调利率，但同时释放出短期内进一步降息并非板上钉钉的信号。根 据最新利率路径预测，政策制定者对通胀与劳动力市场前景分歧明显，2026年中位数仅显示一次降息。 米兰的表态，与部分官员近期释放的"利率接近中性"的判断形成对比。里士满联储主席巴尔金周二早些 时候表示，当前利率水平"处在对中性利率估计区间之内"，并引用了美联储12月发布的相关预测。明尼 阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利也在周一称，鉴于经济增长仍具韧性，"我们现在可能已经非常接近中性水 平"。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储理事米兰表示，当前货币政策对经济形成明显约束，2026年可能需要累计降 息超过100个基点，以缓解对经济增长的抑制。 巴尔金强调，未来政策需要在美联储"双重使命"之间作出精细权衡。"招聘率偏低，没有人希望劳动力 市场进 ...

罗森博格预计，美国失业率将很快突破5%大关，并在"年底前很可能测试6%关口"。这一预测是基于当 前已显现裂痕的劳动力市场数据，而2025年的政府长期停摆导致部分官方数据存在缺口。 基于对就业市场将剧烈收缩的判断，罗森博格认为这将严重削弱美国经济前景，并可能迫使美联储在 2026年采取戏剧性的激进降息行动以应对可能的经济困境 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 摘要今日周日(1月4日)休市。上海黄金t+d收报974.21美元/盎司，下跌7.99美元/元或0.81%，日内最高上 探989.50美元/盎司，最低触及960.75美元/盎司。 今日周日(1月4日)休市。上海黄金t+d收报974.21美元/盎司，下跌7.99美元/元或0.81%，日内最高上探 989.50美元/盎司，最低触及960.75美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 有"华尔街预言家"之称的前美林证券首席经济学家大卫.罗森博格近日警告，美国经济在2026年正面临 困境，劳动力市场可能并非降温，而是面临萎缩风险。他指出，去年10月美国裁员率已升至1.2%的一 年高位，同时招聘率正"如热刀切黄油般骤降"。 黄金T+D价格近期呈现震荡下行态势，最新报价约974元/克，短期 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to recover in 2025 after three years of adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising approximately 18.41% and the STAR Market and ChiNext Indexes increasing by 46.30% and 49.57% respectively [1] - The unique aspect of this recovery is that it is driven by a profound change in risk appetite at the institutional level rather than by profit improvement or liquidity [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, the capital market may still have "expectation differences" based on policy logic and market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The U.S.-China relationship may be influenced by Trump's political self-rescue strategy, which could exacerbate the "East rises, West declines" trend, with two potential windows for easing [2][5] - The first window for easing could occur if high-level visits happen early in the year, while the second window may arise as the midterm elections approach in September, potentially leading to a compromise in trade orders [5] - During the easing phases, A-share technology, Hong Kong internet stocks, and RMB assets may benefit, while defensive sectors like military, key materials, and gold may perform better during pressured phases [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's path to easing may see a speculative phase in early 2026, with a potential "super-easing" window in the third quarter [6][9] - The nomination of a new Fed chair in May 2026 will be a critical turning point for market liquidity [6] - The market may react to the nomination speculation, leading to an early valuation recovery for high-elasticity assets [6] Group 4 - Fiscal policy in 2026 may see a marginal increase in the deficit rate, but the overall fiscal effort is expected to converge, focusing on strategic areas rather than traditional infrastructure [10] - Domestic monetary policy will face dual constraints, needing to maintain liquidity while keeping the RMB relatively strong [10] - The asset allocation strategy will likely favor high-dividend blue-chip stocks and policy-supported core assets due to limited interest rate decline space [10][14] Group 5 - The A-share market is expected to be supported by capital market policies, while the Hong Kong market may benefit more from economic policies [11][12] - The tightening of IPO approvals and regulations on share reductions will create a "healthy" slow bull framework for the A-share market [12] - The A-share market is likely to outperform the Hong Kong market in the first half of 2026 due to these supportive measures [12] Group 6 - The pace of retail investor entry into the market is expected to remain slow, transitioning from concentrated entry to gradual accumulation [13] - Factors such as the prolonged stabilization of real estate prices and cautious income expectations will contribute to this slow entry [13] - Historical examples suggest that significant retail investment requires both institutional benefits and clear profit expectations [13] Group 7 - The global technology sector is expected to maintain an upward trend, with increased volatility and a shift from broad AI growth to more differentiated performance [15][19] - The Nasdaq 100 index is projected to experience overall upward movement, but with amplified volatility [15] - The focus will shift to companies that can convert capital expenditures into cash flow rather than those driven by narrative [15] Group 8 - The domestic AI investment logic is shifting towards application and energy materials, with a focus on "benchmarking" against U.S. advancements [20][21] - The A-share technology sector is expected to expand, with significant growth in humanoid robots and edge AI applications [21] - The healthcare sector may also benefit from AI advancements, particularly in drug development and clinical data processing [21] Group 9 - The "anti-involution" strategy is evolving into a national competitive advantage, focusing on enhancing global bargaining power through industry consolidation [22][23] - Strategic metals and renewable energy sectors are expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and increased demand due to geopolitical factors [23] Group 10 - Gold prices are anticipated to rise due to geopolitical risks and declining monetary credit, with a focus on a gradual upward trend rather than a sharp increase [26][29] - The demand for copper and other strategic resources is expected to grow due to the needs of new energy vehicles and AI data centers [29]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's survey indicates that investors view "the new Fed chair pushing for aggressive rate cuts leading to market turmoil" as a major risk for 2026, reflecting concerns over political interference in monetary policy [2] - Morgan Stanley economists note that the unexpected decline in US November CPI is largely due to technical assumptions made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the absence of October data, suggesting that some categories may have been defaulted to "zero inflation," complicating policy direction conclusions [2][3] - UBS economists emphasize that the key component "Owner's Equivalent Rent" (OER) in the US November CPI may be significantly underestimated due to BLS setting October price changes to zero, which could lead to a downward bias in overall readings [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs points out that the Bank of England's rate cut on December 18 marks a shift in focus from anti-inflation to growth stabilization, confirming the end of the tightening cycle and the beginning of a more prolonged easing phase, with expectations of three 25 basis point cuts in 2026 [1] - Capital Economics highlights that weak consumer spending in the UK is expected to slow GDP growth from 1.4% in 2025 to 1.0% in 2026, with November retail sales showing a slight month-on-month decline of 0.1% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The valuation risks associated with artificial intelligence (AI) have emerged as the largest single threat to market stability in 2026, according to a recent global market survey by Deutsche Bank [1] Group 1: Market Risks - 57% of respondents believe that a decline in enthusiasm for AI leading to a crash in tech stock valuations is the biggest risk facing the market next year [1] - The second major concern is the potential for the new Federal Reserve Chair to implement aggressive rate cuts, which could lead to market turmoil [1] - Concerns about a crisis in private capital markets and the possibility of government bond yields rising beyond expectations follow closely [1] - The risk of unexpected interest rate hikes due to persistent inflation ranks fifth [1] Group 2: Investor Preferences - Approximately 71% of respondents prefer to invest retirement funds in other segments of the U.S. stock market rather than the "Magnificent Seven," a preference that has remained stable since July 2024 [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, respondents have a cautious outlook on market returns, expecting an average return of about 7% for the "Magnificent Seven" and a similar average increase of nearly 7% for the S&P 500 index, marking the strongest outlook recorded in the past four years [1]

美联储在上周降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至3.5%-3.75%，且鲍威尔在利率决议公布后的新闻发 布会上释放了偏鸽派的信号。不过，特朗普吐槽降息幅度"过小"，称"美国的利率就该是全球最低的"。 特朗普此前曾声称，美国利率应为"1%，甚至可能更低"。 自今年1月就任以来，特朗普多次指责美联储降息过慢，并公开批评鲍威尔，称其为"蠢货"和"总是太 迟"，且威胁解除美联储主席鲍威尔的职务。与此同时，特朗普正通过多种手段寻求在其第二个任期内 加强对美联储的控制，以配合其激进降息的愿景——成功让其高级顾问米兰担任美联储理事、并试图解 雇美联储理事库克，而最关键的手段莫过于选择一位支持其降息立场的人选接任明年5月结束美联储主 席任期的鲍威尔。 在特朗普于上月底宣布已决定下一任美联储主席人选时，白宫国家经济委员会主任、特朗普的首席经济 顾问凯文·哈塞特被视为最有可能成为下一任美联储主席的人选。但近期，美联储前理事凯文·沃什和美 联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒重新进入了投资者的视野。特朗普在12月12日接受采访时表示，沃什是下一 任美联储主席职位的头号候选人，哈塞特也很出色，不过最终人选仍未敲定。此外，特朗普在12月17日 面 ...

据官员透露，贝森特已向白宫提交了一份包含四个名字的名单，其中包括哈西特和沃什。其他两位候选 人将从"其他决赛者名单"中选出，其中包美联储理事沃勒、美联储理事鲍曼以及贝莱德的里克·里德 尔。 编辑：马萌伟 新华财经北京12月10日电 据英国金融时报，美国总统特朗普本周将启动最后一轮美联储主席候选人面 试，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈西特将与另外三位候选人竞争。 据三名高级政府官员透露，特朗普和美国财长贝森特定于周三面试美联储前理事凯文·沃什。官员们表 示，尽管部分华尔街投资者担心哈西特与总统关系过于密切，可能会过度激进地降息，但哈西特仍然处 于最有可能在明年五月接替鲍威尔的领先位置。 然而，继续进行额外面试的决定表明哈西特并非板上钉钉的人选。官员们还提出了哈西特缩短任期的可 能性。 然而，继续进行额外面试的决定表明哈西特并非板上钉钉的人选。官员们还提出了哈西特缩短任期的可 能性。 据官员透露，贝森特已向白宫提交了一份包含四个名字的名单，其中包括哈西特和沃什。其他两位候选 人将从"其他决赛者名单"中选出，其中包美联储理事沃勒、美联储理事鲍曼以及贝莱德的里克·里德 尔。 编辑：马萌伟 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快 ...

Group 1 - Bond investors have expressed concerns to the U.S. Treasury regarding Kevin Hassett potentially being appointed as the Federal Reserve Chairman [1][3] - Investors fear that Hassett, as the Director of the White House National Economic Council, may implement aggressive interest rate cuts to please President Trump if he takes over the Fed [1][3] - These discussions took place in November, prior to Treasury Secretary Scott Pruitt's final round of interviews with candidates [1][4] Group 2 - Participants in these discussions included members of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) [2][4]