【要闻速递】 数百万美国消费者曾担忧特朗普的关税政策会引发物价飙升，将通胀推入"红色警戒区"。然而，数月过 去，预期中的通胀浪潮并未到来。9月份年通胀率达3%，虽为特朗普激进关税措施后最高水平，但远低 于此前预测。 摘要今日周四(12月18日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4325.57美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4325.74美元/盎司，跌幅0.26%，最高上探至4342.65美元/盎司，最低触及4324.26美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周四(12月18日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4325.57美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4325.74美元/盎司，跌幅0.26%，最高上探至4342.65美元/盎司，最低触及4324.26美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 关税未引发严重通胀的原因主要有三：一是出口商降价以维持美国市场份额；二是零售商自我消化部分 成本，或寻找廉价替代品；三是特朗普撤回部分关税政策，减轻了消费者负担。目前，约一半美国进口 商品免关税进入。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金市场开盘于4303.1，早盘小幅回踩至4301后强势拉升，日 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.55% to 67.78 cents/pound, and CF509 rose 0.96% to 13,610 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract increased by 26,586 lots to 541,900 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,767 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B was 14,883 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton. Internationally, the macro - level is the focus. With the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the oil price dropped sharply, and inflation expectations cooled, but Powell said he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates. The U.S. dollar index weakened, and the price of U.S. cotton moved up slightly. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures moved up. The market sentiment was boosted by events such as the upcoming military parade and the issuance of a guidance on financial support for consumption. Currently, China's old cotton inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years, supporting the cotton price. However, the demand is weak during the off - season. Considering the macro and fundamental situation, and with no new expected negative factors in the short term, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures has support at the bottom and may move up slowly, but the upside is limited due to the strong expectation of a bumper new cotton harvest. The report suggests paying attention to macro and weather changes [1]. - **Sugar**: Indonesia's Ministry of Agriculture expects the country's sugar production in 2025 to be 2.75 million tons, higher than last year's 2.45 million tons. It plans to import about 200,000 tons of raw sugar in 2025 to supplement food reserves, and the domestic sugar consumption is expected to reach 2.84 million tons. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making group is 5,990 - 6,060 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan sugar - making group is 5,790 - 5,830 yuan/ton, unchanged. With the easing of the international situation and the decline of oil prices, the sugar price is back to being fundamentally driven, and the background of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. The report suggests paying attention to the support of raw sugar at 16 cents/pound. Domestically, the spot price has been slightly adjusted, and the future focus is on the volume and rhythm of imports. In the short term, there is no directional driver, and the sugar price is expected to move in a narrow range due to the co - existence of basis support and raw sugar pressure [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The price of ICE U.S. cotton and Zhengzhou cotton futures increased. The macro situation affects the international cotton price, and domestic events boost market sentiment. The low inventory supports the cotton price, but the demand is weak in the off - season. The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures may move up slowly with limited upside [1]. - **Sugar**: Indonesia's sugar production is expected to increase, and it plans to import raw sugar. The international sugar price is back to fundamental - driven, and the domestic spot price has been adjusted. The future focus is on imports, and the price is expected to move in a narrow range [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 25 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the main contract basis is 1,273 yuan/ton, down 156 yuan/ton. The arrival price in Xinjiang is 14,767 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, and the national price is 14,883 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 151 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; the main contract basis is 335 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. The spot price in Nanning is 6,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou is 6,045 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 24, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,419, down 74 from the previous day, with 300 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions are as follows: Xinjiang 14,767 yuan/ton, Henan 14,917 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,910 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 15,163 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 53.4, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.3, up 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.2, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.2, unchanged [1][3]. - **Sugar**: On June 24, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou was 6,045 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 24,762, down 2,572 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, contract spread, and warehouse receipts of sugar. The data sources are Wind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [6][12][14][16].