摘要周五(2月27日)亚洲时段，国际黄金窄幅震荡走弱，目前黄金价格徘徊在5180美元附近，最新黄金 价格报5183.29美元/盎司，跌幅0.01%，地缘政治方面，美伊谈判暂停，伊朗表示取得进展，但美媒表 示美方谈判感到失望，这也意味着美方采取行动不能排除。市场降低未来美联储降息押注下，地缘政治 成为黄金聚焦点，预计仍将在5000美元/盎司上下以高位宽幅震荡的形式。 但路透社称，周四的间接会谈最终未能达成协议，令该地区局势依然紧张。 【技术面分析】 周五(2月27日)亚洲时段，国际黄金窄幅震荡走弱，目前黄金价格徘徊在5180美元附近，最新黄金价格 报5183.29美元/盎司，跌幅0.01%，地缘政治方面，美伊谈判暂停，伊朗表示取得进展，但美媒表示美 方谈判感到失望，这也意味着美方采取行动不能排除。市场降低未来美联储降息押注下，地缘政治成为 黄金聚焦点，预计仍将在5000美元/盎司上下以高位宽幅震荡的形式。 【要闻速递】 英国路透社周四报道称，调解方阿曼表示，美国和伊朗周四就德黑兰核计划的谈判取得了进展，但数小 时的谈判最终未能取得突破，无法避免美国在伊朗大规模军事集结之际可能发动的打击。 阿曼外交部长赛义德.巴 ...

摘要今日周五(2月27日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为5192.31美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨8.27美 元，涨幅0.16%，日内呈现反弹走势。当日开盘价报5179.90美元/盎司，盘中最高触及5199.39美元/盎 司，最低下探至5165.79... 知情人士透露，美以联合军事行动的可能性并未被排除。目前美军已向中东地区调集了规模惊人的舰艇 编队与战斗机群，所有作战平台均处于可直接打击伊朗的距离之内，展示出极强的投射能力与威慑姿 态。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 据接近美国总统的消息人士透露，美国中央司令部司令、海军上将布拉德.库珀于当地时间周四(2月26 日)向特朗普总统详细汇报了针对伊朗的多种潜在军事行动选项。中央司令部负责统辖中东地区所有美 军部队。 参谋长联席会议主席、总统首席军事顾问丹.凯恩将军全程参与了此次简报。据另一位了解内情的人士 确认，此次由中东地区最高军事指挥官亲自汇报的时机，恰与当天美伊双方在日内瓦举行的间接核谈高 度重合。 双方会谈聚焦伊朗核计划及弹道导弹项目，但未达成任何公开协议。伊朗外长表示谈判取得一定进展， 并宣布"技术层面磋商"将于下周在奥地利维也纳继续进行。 今日周五(2月 ...

展望今日周三(2月25日)：国际黄金开盘受到均线支撑买盘，有所止跌运行，同时，美元指数早盘反弹 动力减缓，也对其产生一定支撑，故此，操作上，5日或10日均线支撑位，也仍是继续做多入场的位 置。 上交易日周二(2月24日)：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，受美元走强以及获利了结的影响，再加上多位美联 储官员警告通胀依然过高，降息预期大幅降温，拖累因避险情绪升温推动的金价涨幅，多头动力减弱， 但近期走势模式为震荡上移，中东地缘政治紧张局势的反复升温，已成为近期黄金市场的重要推动力。 年内降息前景仍在，故此，行情遇阻回撤，在触及支撑位置也是入场做多的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于5227.26美元/盎司，直接先行录得日内高点5249.43美元，便遇阻回撤并开 始跳水100多美金，之后止跌回升，陷入5160-5186美元区间震荡盘整，到美盘开盘，又再度跳水触及日 内低点5094.07美元，最后触底回升，但受阻于日内区间压力，最终收于5143.70美元，日振幅155.36美 元，收跌83.56美元，跌幅1.6%。 基本面上，昨日因古尔斯比：在有更多证据表明通胀正在回落之前不宜降息，对今年有望进一步降息持 乐观态度。柯林斯：很 ...

张尧浠：金价遇阻获利了结、利好仍在回撤仍可看涨 上交易日周二(2月24日)：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，受美元走强以及获利了结的影响，再加上多位美联储官员警告通胀依然过高，降息预期大幅降温，拖 累因避险情绪升温推动的金价涨幅，多头动力减弱，但近期走势模式为震荡上移，中东地缘政治紧张局势的反复升温，已成为近期黄金市场的重要推动 力。年内降息前景仍在，故此，行情遇阻回撤，在触及支撑位置也是入场做多的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于5227.26美元/盎司，直接先行录得日内高点5249.43美元，便遇阻回撤并开始跳水100多美金，之后止跌回升，陷入5160-5186 美元区间震荡盘整，到美盘开盘，又再度跳水触及日内低点5094.07美元，最后触底回升，但受阻于日内区间压力，最终收于5143.70美元，日振幅155.36 美元，收跌83.56美元，跌幅1.6%。 展望今日周三(2月25日)：国际黄金开盘受到均线支撑买盘，有所止跌运行，同时，美元指数早盘反弹动力减缓，也对其产生一定支撑，故此，操作上，5 日或10日均线支撑位，也仍是继续做多入场的位置。 黄金TD=(国际黄金价格x汇率)/31.1035 国际黄金波动1美金， ...

上交易日周一(2月23日)：国际黄金继续反弹走强收阳，特朗普宣布将临时关税上调至15%，带动了避险需求，令其保持在中轨及短期均线上方运行，虽 然主图ZZ指标显示反弹触顶，有回落风险，但附图指标转强，主图各均线也多头排列，基本面也未有持续且较大的利空因素，故此，如有回落，下方关 注各均线支撑，也是继续入场看涨的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于5106.96美元/盎司，便先行录得日内低点5102.18美元，之后反弹走强后，陷入区间震荡，并在美盘时段，多头再度发力，连 续反弹上行，于盘尾触及日内高点5237.65美元，并最终持稳收于5227.40美元，日振幅 135.47美元，收涨120.44美元，涨幅2.36%。 展望今日周二(2月24日)：国际黄金开盘仍偏强运行，虽然在地缘局势方面，特朗普释放美伊局势缓和信号：更倾向协议而非战争。但美媒表示美军将领 警告对伊朗动武风险极高，易陷长期冲突，这进一步加剧了地缘局势的长期影响因素，也暗示地缘风险的缓解难以对金价产生趋势性压力。 另外，美媒还表示特朗普政府考虑对六大行业征收新的国家安全关税，特朗普也言论任何想"耍花招"的国家将面临更高的关税。新一轮政策不确定性也将 加 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher on February 19, driven by ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which provided rebound momentum [1] - The strengthening U.S. dollar index and better-than-expected initial jobless claims data limited bullish sentiment, preventing gold from returning above the mid-range [1] - The outlook suggests a tendency for gold prices to rise, supported by the 30-day and 60-day moving averages, indicating a buying opportunity on dips [1] Group 2 - Gold prices opened at $4977.09 per ounce, hitting an intraday low of $4959.36 before fluctuating, reaching a high of $5022.08 during the U.S. trading session, and ultimately closing at $4996.35, with a daily range of $62.72 and a gain of $19.26, or 0.39% [3] - On February 20, gold opened with narrow fluctuations, facing resistance from the strengthening dollar index and technical barriers, while also having support from various moving averages and geopolitical factors [3] - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. December core PCE price index year-on-year, the initial estimate of the fourth quarter annualized GDP growth rate, and the final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for February, which could influence gold prices depending on whether the data is perceived as positive or negative [3]

Market Overview - International gold maintained a volatile trend on February 19, with an opening price of $4998.09 per ounce, a high of $5022.21, a low of $4960.62, and a closing price of $5013.83 [1] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 23,000 to 206,000 for the week ending February 14, exceeding economists' expectations of 225,000, indicating a stabilization in the labor market [3] - Continuing claims rose to 1.87 million, the highest level since early January, suggesting some underlying weakness in the labor market despite the drop in initial claims [3] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated that most policymakers see signs of stabilization in the labor market, although concerns about downside risks remain [3] - The probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is estimated at 20%-25%, down from 30% in September [4] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump indicated that a decision on a potential agreement with Iran could be made in about ten days, emphasizing that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons for peace in the Middle East [5] - Reports suggest Trump is considering limited military strikes against Iran to compel compliance with nuclear agreement terms, with discussions shifting towards larger-scale actions [6] Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 3.14 tons to a total of 1078.75 tons [7] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is 5.9%, with a 94.1% chance of maintaining current rates [7] - By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut rises to 49.8% [7] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a slight upward trend, with short-term indicators suggesting a gradual upward crossover [11] - The trading strategy includes cautious high short and low long positions, with specific entry and exit points outlined for aggressive and conservative traders [11]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced downward pressure due to positive signals from US-Iran negotiations and the formal initiation of the US-Japan trade agreement, reducing safe-haven demand [1][6]. Market Performance - Gold opened at $4995.59 per ounce, reached a high of $5000.90, and then declined to a low of $4841.30, closing at $4877.29, marking a daily drop of $118.3 or 2.37% [3]. - The market outlook for gold remains weak, with significant resistance above and no further positive fundamentals to support a rally [3][6]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes US December new housing starts (annualized), December durable goods orders month-on-month, December building permits (thousands), January industrial production month-on-month, and January Conference Board leading indicators month-on-month, with expectations leaning towards positive impacts on gold prices [5]. Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a dovish stance on interest rates, with discussions around the extent and timing of rate cuts, which may not exert significant pressure on gold prices [6]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks have decreased significantly due to breakthroughs in US-Iran nuclear talks and peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, leading to diminished safe-haven demand for gold [6]. - The strengthening of the US dollar has also contributed to selling pressure on gold, although this is viewed as a temporary phase within a broader bullish market context [6]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices are maintaining a bullish outlook despite recent declines, remaining above the 5-month moving average, indicating a potential for further upward movement [8]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold has encountered resistance and may test the 10-week moving average support at $4730 [8]. - Daily charts indicate that gold is currently below the mid-range and short-term moving averages, with expectations of further declines unless it stabilizes above these levels [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4820 and $4730, while resistance levels are at $4930 and $4990 [11]. - For silver, support is noted at $70.80 and $68.20, with resistance at $75.00 and $76.70 [11].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and a slight decline, currently reported at $4989.28 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.59% [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The international gold market opened at $5019.14 per ounce, reaching a high of $5030.62 and a low of $4954.42 during the trading session [1] - Last week, gold prices opened at $4987.98 per ounce, peaked at $5119.05 on Wednesday, and then fell to a low of $4878.77 on Thursday before rebounding to close at $5042.63, marking a weekly increase of $81.77 or 1.65% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions initially drove gold prices higher, but comments from Federal Reserve officials downplaying the urgency of interest rate cuts and a White House official refuting employment concerns led to a temporary recovery in prices [1] - The support from central bank purchases and geopolitical factors, along with President Trump's push for the Fed to lower rates to "the lowest in the world," contributed to the rebound in gold prices [1] - The market reacted to AI-related fears that caused a sell-off in tech stocks, triggering liquidity issues and leading traders to sell metals to cover stock losses, which resulted in a sharp drop in gold prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current outlook suggests that gold prices may experience short-term adjustments, but the overall bullish trend remains intact due to the recent U.S. CPI report, which has raised expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Fed [2] - The ongoing central bank purchases of gold are expected to support long-term bullish sentiment, while geopolitical uncertainties continue to create opportunities for bullish entries [2] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4990 and $4930, with resistance levels at $5100 and $5150 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold and silver prices experienced significant volatility at the beginning of 2026, with a sharp decline following a substantial increase prior to January 29, raising concerns about underlying liquidity risks in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent drop in gold and silver prices was not due to changes in structural support factors but rather driven by high anxiety, month-end funding structures, profit-taking fears, and market panic triggered by price fluctuations [1]. - The U.S. government's policy direction remains unchanged, and the likelihood of gradual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with ongoing global de-dollarization and central bank purchases of gold and silver, has provided some support against the downward trend [1][2]. Group 2: Price Predictions and Risks - Given the short-term price drop exceeding historical levels and the lack of new supportive events for gold prices, there is a high probability that international gold and silver prices will repeat the consolidation patterns observed in early, mid, and late 2025 [2]. - If liquidity risks escalate without new geopolitical conflicts to bolster safe-haven demand, the downward pressure on gold and silver prices could increase, with gold potentially testing levels below $4,400 per ounce and silver possibly dropping to $50-$60 per ounce, representing a decline of 20%-30% [3]. Group 3: Emotional and Behavioral Factors - The interconnectedness of all assets means that significant declines in the stock market could lead to forced selling of profitable assets, including gold and silver, to meet margin calls, highlighting the core of liquidity risk [2]. - Historical instances of "contagion effects" have shown that significant declines in the stock market can lead to sharp drops in gold and silver prices, as seen during the early pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis [3].