张尧浠：降息前景乐观情绪缓解、金价多头受限看涨前景不变 上交易日周一(8月25日)：国际黄金震荡收跌，随着市场对降息前景的乐观情绪有所平息，市场焦点转向即将公布的美国PCE数据，以寻找美联储政策路径 的线索，再加上美元反弹收复上周五大部分跌幅，抑制了金价涨幅，使其未能进一步反弹走强，但也仍运行在60日及中轨上方，多头仍具看涨前景，下方 中轨线及100日均线支撑，仍是继续看涨反弹的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3371.93美元/盎司，日内整体处于震荡走盘模式，于早盘10点时段录得日内低点3359.65美元，又于美盘23点时段录得日内高 点3375.94美元，之后则遇阻维持回撤，最终收于3365.52美元，日振幅16.29美元，收跌6.71美元，跌幅0.2%。 展望今日周二(8月26日)：国际黄金开盘延续隔夜尾盘回落趋势先行表现走弱，以及美元指数开盘先行走强，也对其产生利空压力，不过金价由于下方也 有众多均线支撑，故此，如触及日内短线支撑位置，也是可先行看涨反弹。 美元指数日图走势再度重回看涨趋势上方以及短期均线之上，多头动力增强，周图走势也反弹走强，虽运行在中轨下方，但布林带的缩口，加上附图指标 维持明显 ...

Core Drivers Analysis - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift signals a potential interest rate cut in September, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 75% to 90% following Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting [1] - Powell emphasized the "peculiar balance" in the labor market, indicating a shift in focus from "anti-inflation" to "recession prevention," providing long-term support for gold [1] Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, with Israeli forces entering Gaza City and the UN confirming famine in parts of Gaza, which typically increases gold's safe-haven premium [2] - Ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and supply chain risks from Myanmar's tin export controls further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Market Performance - Following Powell's speech, the US dollar index fell from a high of 98.22, leading to decreased preference for dollar assets [3] - Gold futures in New York broke through the key resistance level of $3,400 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,423.4, indicating a bullish trend with a short-term target of $3,450 per ounce [3] - Domestic gold market also showed strength, with Shanghai gold futures closing at 778.96 yuan per gram and trading volume significantly increasing to 168,900 contracts [3] - The bullish momentum in gold is expected to continue, with support levels identified at 3,350-3,355 and resistance at 3,380-3,385 for the upcoming week [3]

换资前言： 金九银十"将至，国际黄金投资窗口正开，想抓住这波机会？找金晟富准没错！当下全球不太平，地缘 冲突、经济乏力、物价或涨，股市波动大。而国际黄金在2008年金融危机时，美股跌惨它却涨25%，能 护钱袋子。各国央行连续13年增持，新兴市场增速80%，买的人多金价易涨。5G手机、新能源汽车用 金需求大增，2030年或比现在多40%。金晟富熟悉国际黄金市场，不管你想稳投实物、积存金、ETF， 还是想通过期货多赚，金晟富都能给出专业建议，助你灵活操作、随时变现。这旺季，别错过赚大钱的 机会！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周五(8月22日)，美元指数大幅下挫，黄金价格飙升，主因是美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行 年会上的演讲，强化市场对9月降息的希望。现货黄金周五收盘大涨33.05美元，涨幅0.98%，报3371.51 美元/盎司。美元指数周五大跌近1%，意味着以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的买家来说变得相对便 宜。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表讲话，其释放的信号对黄金市场走向意义重大。鲍威尔表 示，当前形势暗示就业增长面临下行风险，风险平衡点的变化可能要求调整政策，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced a decline due to reduced risk appetite following comments from Putin about a potential new arms agreement with the U.S. and a significant increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, which raised concerns about inflation and diminished expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. PPI for July increased by 0.9%, marking the largest rise in three years, which has led to heightened market concerns regarding inflation pressures [2]. - Following the PPI data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September dropped to 89.1% from approximately 95% prior to the announcement, indicating a shift in market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices opened the week at $3,398.34 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $3,404.51, but subsequently fell over 1.6%, closing at $3,336.11, reflecting a total weekly decline of $62.23 or 1.83% [3]. - The fluctuations in gold prices suggest that the market is sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, with geopolitical uncertainties typically driving demand for gold [2].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a cautious phase influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic factors, with gold prices fluctuating between $3330 and $3350, while the outlook remains bullish due to increasing demand and macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The second half of the year is expected to see heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. - Key supporting factors for gold's bullish outlook include tariff increases, global economic slowdown, easing U.S. monetary policy, and a persistently weak dollar [2]. - Recent economic data has shown mixed signals, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although inflation data has tempered these expectations [2]. Market Analysis - The recent U.S.-Russia summit yielded no concrete agreements, leading to limited volatility in gold prices, which remained within a narrow range [3]. - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with the market currently in a downward C-wave and indicators suggesting increased selling pressure [3][5]. - Short-term resistance levels are identified at $3350-$3353, while key support is at $3330, with further potential declines if this level is breached [5]. Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include short positions on rebounds near $3348-$3350 and long positions on pullbacks near $3310-$3315, with strict stop-loss measures recommended [5].

具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3348.35美元/盎司，则先行走低录得日内低点3342.68美元。之后整体震荡上行，延续至美盘初时段录得日内高点3370.42美 元，最后遇阻回撤，并最终再度止跌运行，收于3355.78美元，日振幅27.74美元，收涨7.43美元，涨幅0.22%。 张尧浠：9月降息预期锁定、金价止跌反弹看涨前景加大 上交易日周三(8月13日)：国际黄金冲高回落，偏震荡式收涨，虽未能收线在5日均线上方，但也收线在60日均线之上，暗示空头力量减弱，后市仍有再度 走强触及3440美元附近阻力及更高位置。那么下方60日或100日均线支撑，则仍是可看涨支撑的入场位置。 影响上，因受到周二的震荡止跌形态产生的买盘，以及投资者基本锁定美联储9月降息，美财长又公开呼吁美联储应该降息超百点，美元指数连续第二个 交易日下跌，推动金价走强。 展望今日周四(8月14日)：国际黄金开盘延续昨日尾盘回升之力，先行表现走强，其中轨和60日均线支撑展现买盘情绪，另外，本周降息预期的连续升 温，9月降息预板上钉钉，后续预展开超预期的力度周期，而打压美元连续走弱，将会在降息落地之前，继续支持金价反弹走强。 美元指数日图走势，持续运行 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（8月12日）触底反弹维持震荡，开盘价3349.37美元/盎司，最高价3359.25美元/盎司，最低价 3331.08美元/盎司，收盘价3349.80美元/盎司。 消息面： 周二公布的美国7月季调后CPI月率录得0.2%，符合市场预期，前值位0.3%；美国7月季调后核心CPI月率录得 0.3%，符合市场预期，前值位0.2%；美国7月未季调核心CPI年率录得3.1%，高于市场预期3.00%，前值位 2.9%；美国7月未季调CPI年率录得2.7%，低于市场预期2.8%，前值为2.7%。 评论称，美国7月份消费者价格温和上涨，但由于进口关税导致商品成本上涨，导致一项衡量基础通胀的指标 创下六个月来的最大涨幅。CPI报告发布之际，人们越来越担心通胀和就业报告的质量。此前，美国政府削减 预算和人员编制，导致全国一些地区暂停了部分CPI篮子的数据收集。美国劳工统计局以"需要将调查工作量与 资源水平相匹配"为由，完全暂停了内布拉斯加州一个城市、犹他州和纽约州的消费者物价指数数据收集。此 外，美国劳工统计局还暂停了其他72个地区平均15%样本数据的收集。这导致用于计算CPI的价格数据和租金 数据暂时减 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 775.55 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 47,492 and an open interest of 206,958. The inventory was 35,889 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 3.28, and the basis was - 2.33 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 9,039 yuan/kg, with a trading volume of - 78,029 and an open interest of 371,051. The inventory was 1,174,273 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 17, and the basis was - 40 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 3,428.60 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 132,941 and an open interest of 334,342. The inventory was 37,762,393.92 (in troy ounces). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 53.50, and the basis was - 69.15 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 38.33 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 44,731 and an open interest of 109,684. The inventory was 506,602,108.72 (in troy ounces). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 0.22, and the basis was 0.32 [1] - **Gold and Silver Price Ratios**: Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 83.90; Shanghai gold spot to Shanghai silver spot was 86.32; New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 91.56; London gold spot to London silver spot was 91.72 [1] - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: INE crude oil was 514.30 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude was 68.68 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 66.24 dollars/barrel, Shanghai copper futures was 78,330 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,708.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,204 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was - 7.50 yuan/ton. Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and others also had corresponding closing prices and changes [1] 3.2 News and Information - **Gold - related News**: The EU has suspended trade counter - measures against the US for six months. Switzerland is facing a negotiation "race" to reduce a 39% tariff, and Swiss gold trade has become the focus of Trump's tariff policy. Trump will select a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new Bureau of Labor Statistics director in three to four days [1] - **Macroeconomic and Central Bank Policies**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in July. Due to possible significant downward revisions or far - below - expected non - farm payrolls in July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing expectations of rate cuts in September, October, and December. The European Central Bank may cut rates once by the end of 2025, the Bank of England may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025, and the Bank of Japan may still have a rate hike expectation by the end of 2025 [1] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on support around 3,150 - 3,250 and resistance around 3,500 - 3,700; for Shanghai gold, support is around 730 - 760 and resistance is around 800 - 850. For London silver, support is around 34 - 38 and resistance is around 37 - 40; for Shanghai silver, support is around 8,500 - 8,700 and resistance is around 9,100 - 9,500 [1]

行情回顾： 国际黄金周四（7月31日）震荡收涨，开盘价3290.42美元/盎司，最高价3314.83美元/盎司，最低价3268.02美元/ 盎司，收盘价3295.49美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国7月芝加哥PMI录得47.1，高于市场预期42，前值为40.4；美国至7月26日当周初请失业金人数录得21.8万 人，低于市场预期22.4万人，前值为21.7万人；美国6月核心PCE物价指数月率录得0.3%，符合市场预期，前值 为0.2%；美国6月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.8%，高于市场预期2.7%，前值为2.7%；美国6月个人支出月率 录得0.3%，低于市场预期0.4%，前值为-0.1%。 机构分析显示，美国芝加哥地区的商业活动本月依然在收缩，但收缩速度大幅放缓，这表明尽管关税不确定性 和高通胀仍在持续，美国经济依然展现出较强的韧性。周四公布的一项调查显示，芝加哥商业晴雨表从6月的 40.4跃升至7月的47.1，大幅超出预期的41.7。尽管出现了改善，且为一年多来最大月度涨幅，但该指数仍低于 50，意味着经济活动依旧处于收缩区间。芝加哥商业晴雨表上一次突破50是在2023年底。本月商业活动回升的 主要推动力是新订 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a decline, breaking below key support levels after the release of negative economic data from the US, including ADP employment data and personal spending figures [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, with a hawkish tone from Chairman Powell, contributing to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] - The monthly closing for July indicates a bearish outlook for gold, with expectations of continued downward movement unless significant positive news emerges [3] Group 2 - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified at 3300-3305, with further resistance at 3320 and the previous high of 3330-3335 [5] - The international silver market has also shown weakness, breaking below key support levels, indicating a bearish trend [5] - Domestic gold and silver markets are following international trends, with specific resistance levels identified for both Shanghai gold and silver [7]