Core Points - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, with employment growth decelerating and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [1] - Inflation has risen and remains at a relatively high level, attributed to increased manufacturing costs due to tariffs, which are expected to be passed on to the end market [2] - The government shutdown, which began on October 1, is projected to cost the U.S. economy $15 billion for each day it continues, exacerbating issues related to employment and inflation [2] Employment Summary - The Federal Reserve's view aligns with market expectations, noting an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in employment numbers [2] - The changes in employment are attributed to an increase in retiring workers and a decrease in net immigration [2] Inflation Summary - The Federal Reserve considers the inflation situation to be severe, with high levels persisting [2] - There is a contrasting market perspective that inflation may decline due to a potential economic recession, possibly falling below the Fed's 2% target [2] Economic Impact Summary - The ongoing government shutdown is expected to have a significant negative impact on the macroeconomy, with worsening conditions for employment and inflation anticipated [2] - The dollar index has shown signs of a rebound despite the Fed's interest rate cuts, attributed to the poor economic outlook in the Eurozone compared to the U.S. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Kashkari, may consider lowering interest rates if there is a significant deterioration in the labor market, even if inflation remains high [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is influenced by labor market conditions [1] - A potential interest rate cut could occur despite persistent high inflation levels [1]