布热斯基指出，如果德国经济在未来数月出现周期性复苏迹象，劳动力市场有望在年中前后趋于稳定， 但在此之前，就业疲软仍将对居民消费和整体经济复苏构成明显制约。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经法兰克福1月7日电（记者马悦然、尹亮）德国劳动力市场持续走弱，失业人数升至近300万， 创下2010年以来同期最高水平。德国联邦劳工局公布的最新数据显示，12月失业人数环比增加2.29万 人，总失业人数达到290.8万人；经季节调整后，失业人数增加3000人，失业率维持在6.3%不变。 分析认为，劳动力市场恶化与德国经济长期低迷密切相关。过去四年间，德国失业人数累计增加约50万 人。在经济连续多年接近停滞、工业部门面临结构性调整压力的背景下，就业市场承压被视为必然结 果。 荷兰国际集团全球宏观研究主管卡斯滕·布热斯基表示，德国劳动力市场的逐步恶化可能在2026年仍将 延续。尽管部分基于招聘网站的高频指标显示就业需求趋于稳定，但包括Ifo商业景气指数以及德国联 邦劳工局自身的就业预期指标仍在下行，加之汽车等行业持续释放成本削减信号、企业破产数量上升， 短期内就业形势或将进一步承压。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is experiencing a slight recovery, trading around $4128.00 per ounce, with expectations of a potential rise if it breaks through the resistance levels of $4150-$4155, driven by anticipated economic weakness and a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - The reopening of the U.S. government has shifted market focus towards deteriorating fiscal prospects and concerns over weakening economic momentum, with economists estimating that the government shutdown may have reduced quarterly GDP growth by approximately 1.5% to 2.0% [2]. - The restoration of normal data flow is expected to reinforce these concerns, especially following weaker-than-expected employment and consumer confidence indicators from the previous week [2]. - Revelio Labs reported that the number of unemployed individuals reached 9,100 last week, with a reduction of 22,200 government payroll positions, indicating a worsening labor market [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve have led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index to a near two-week low, which has supported non-yielding assets like gold, allowing it to gain momentum after breaking the $4100 mark [2]. - The U.S. stock market, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average, reached a record closing high, while European markets also closed at historical highs, driven by healthcare stocks [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - From a technical perspective, gold prices are struggling to establish a strong position above the 50% retracement level of the recent sharp decline from the historical high reached in October, which is at $4134 [3]. - Positive oscillators on daily and 4-hour charts favor bullish traders, with a potential breakout above the $4150-$4155 area likely to reaffirm a constructive outlook and allow gold to reclaim the $4200 level, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4193 [4]. - Conversely, a convincing break below the recent low around $4100-$4095 could trigger technical selling, dragging prices down to the $4025 area and potentially towards the psychological level of $4000 [4].

Core Points - The US dollar index experienced a sudden decline on the evening of November 11, leading to a rise in non-US currencies [1][3] - The ADP reported a weekly average reduction of 11,250 jobs in the private sector for the four weeks ending October 25, indicating a deterioration in the labor market [4][5] - The report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas highlighted that the number of announced layoffs in October was the highest for that month in over two decades, raising concerns about labor market health [5] - A survey by the University of Michigan revealed that 71% of respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise in the next year, the highest percentage since 1980 [5] - Goldman Sachs economists estimate that non-farm employment in the US may decrease by 50,000 in October, considering employees participating in the government "deferred resignation plan" [5] - The latest employment data has increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with a nearly 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [6]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden drop in the US dollar index has led to a rise in non-US currencies, indicating potential shifts in the currency market dynamics [2][4]. Labor Market Analysis - The US labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with the ADP reporting an average weekly job loss of 11,250 positions in the four weeks ending October 25 [5][6]. - A report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicates that the number of layoffs announced in October was the highest for that month in over two decades, raising concerns about the health of the labor market [6]. - A survey by the University of Michigan revealed that 71% of respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise in the next year, the highest percentage since 1980 [7]. Economic Implications - The recent employment data has increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December approaching 70% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant deterioration of the US labor market, as indicated by key employment data, has strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve's further loose monetary policy. Even if the US CPI and PPI data in August are resilient, it is difficult to affect the Fed's interest - rate cut operation in September [2]. - During the process of the Fed's monetary policy turning loose, silver prices will have a stronger upward drive compared to gold. The current external gold - silver ratio is 87, significantly higher than the historical average of 62.1 since 1971. The market has almost fully priced in a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in the September FOMC meeting, and there is a 55% probability of a further 25 - basis - point cut in the October meeting. The Fed may conduct more than three interest - rate cuts in the remaining FOMC meetings this year, exceeding market expectations. It is recommended to maintain a long - on - dips strategy for the precious metals sector, with a focus on the upward opportunities of silver prices. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 801 - 840 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9526 - 11000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 1.01% to 822.78 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.07% to 9770.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.56% to 3633.00 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.57% to 41.32 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.1%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.88 [2]. - The closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventories of various gold and silver products such as COMEX gold, LBMA gold, SHFE gold, COMEX silver, LBMA silver, and SHFE silver, as well as the changes compared with the previous trading day and their historical quantiles, are presented in detail [4][6]. Market Outlook - The US labor market has shown clear signs of deterioration. The non - farm payrolls data in August was significantly lower than expected, with multiple industries experiencing a decline in employment. This situation is in line with the statements of Powell and other Fed officials, indicating that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September [2]. - With the Fed's monetary policy becoming more accommodative, silver is expected to outperform gold. The market has priced in the Fed's interest - rate cut actions, and the Fed may cut interest rates more times than expected in the remaining meetings of this year [3]. Charts and Data Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including the relationship between gold and silver prices and various factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volumes, open interests, and the near - far month structure of gold and silver futures contracts, as well as the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [8][11][22][54].

Group 1 - Concerns about the labor market are a primary reason for the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as stated by multiple officials [1][2] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed a strong belief that a rate cut should occur at the next meeting, emphasizing the need for preemptive action before labor market deterioration [1] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicated that a modest easing of policy may be appropriate, suggesting a potential 25 basis point cut within the remaining months of the year [1][2] Group 2 - The current target range for the federal funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, with investors widely expecting a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [2] - The Fed's Beige Book reported widespread price increases related to tariffs, with businesses hesitant to pass on costs due to customer sensitivity and competitive pressures [2] - Labor market indicators are showing signs of weakness, prompting increased focus on employment objectives among Federal Reserve officials [2][4] Group 3 - St. Louis Fed President Bullard noted a slight increase in the assessment of downside risks to the labor market, while also adjusting the outlook on persistent inflation risks downward due to low transmission effects from tariffs [3] - A government report indicated a decline in job vacancies, with a reduction of 176,000 positions to 7.181 million, falling short of economists' expectations [4] - Bullard expects moderate deterioration in the labor market, with inflation pressures anticipated to return to the 2% target by the second half of 2026 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September appears to be almost certain, a complete shift towards easing requires certain conditions to be met [1] - The baseline scenario from TD Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve is most likely to restart rate cuts in October, as the deterioration of the labor market is expected to take longer to materialize [1] - The non-farm payroll report released last Friday highlights the increasing risk of a rapid weakening in the labor market, with the bond market reacting by pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a rate cut in September and further easing expected by the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated that delaying action could lead to a deterioration in the labor market and further slowdown in economic growth [1] Group 1 - The potential risks of inaction include worsening labor market conditions [1] - Economic growth may further decelerate if timely measures are not implemented [1]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a broader structural shift characterized by persistent deflationary pressures, declining energy demand, and a deteriorating labor market [1][7][11] - Consumer discretionary spending is slowing down, indicating a significant impact on industries such as travel, hospitality, and leisure [1][5][11] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June shows a notable weakness in discretionary spending categories, with hotel and motel prices decreasing by 3.7% [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicates a rare deflationary trend, with a net change of -0.1% over four months, and core PPI showing a decline for the first time since June 2020 [2][3] Group 3: Energy Demand Insights - Energy usage data confirms a decline in consumer activity, with gasoline consumption dropping to an average of 8.49 million barrels per day, significantly lower than previous years [4] - Overall oil demand is also reflecting this weakness, with total oil supply averaging around 20.1 million barrels per day, slightly above 2022 levels but below 2023 and 2024 [4] Group 4: Corporate Responses and Market Sentiment - Major hotel chains like Hilton and Wyndham have adjusted their revenue growth forecasts due to slowing consumer travel spending, attributing this to economic uncertainty [5][6] - Airlines such as Delta and Southwest have retracted their financial forecasts for 2025, reflecting a cautious outlook on consumer behavior [5][6] Group 5: Labor Market Challenges - The labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% and non-farm employment growth slowing to an average of 120,000 per month [7][8] - Real disposable income growth is stagnating, with a reported annualized growth rate of 0.8% in Q2 2025, impacting consumer spending on non-essential items [7][8] Group 6: Market Discrepancies - The U.S. stock market has reached historical highs despite the underlying economic data indicating persistent consumer weakness, suggesting a disconnect between market sentiment and economic reality [9] - The optimism surrounding a potential rebound in consumer spending post-trade uncertainty may be misplaced, as structural issues in the economy are likely to persist [9][10] Group 7: Implications for Policy and Business Strategy - Policymakers may need to reconsider their stance on interest rates in light of the deflationary trends in discretionary sectors, potentially requiring more accommodative measures to stimulate demand [10] - Companies in the hospitality and airline sectors may need to adapt to prolonged periods of weak demand, possibly implementing cost-cutting measures that could further impact consumer confidence [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Kashkari, may consider lowering interest rates if there is a significant deterioration in the labor market, even if inflation remains high [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is influenced by labor market conditions [1] - A potential interest rate cut could occur despite persistent high inflation levels [1]