Group 1 - The core CPI for May increased by 2.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.9%, while the total CPI rose by 2.4%, also below the forecast of 2.5% [2][3] - The month-on-month CPI rose only 0.1%, compared to the expected 0.2%, indicating a cooling inflation trend [2][3] - The market's expectation for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year increased to 72% following the CPI data release [2][5] Group 2 - Significant declines in commodity prices were observed, including new cars (-0.3%), used cars (-0.5%), and furniture (-0.8%), suggesting easing supply chain pressures [4] - Energy prices notably impacted the CPI, with gasoline prices dropping by 1.2%, offsetting a 0.3% increase in food prices [5] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicated that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September rose from 18% to 31% after the CPI announcement [5] Group 3 - Following the CPI release, gold prices surged, with spot gold reaching $3,376.3 per ounce, driven by both safe-haven demand and expectations of rate cuts [2][7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 5 basis points to 4.38%, reflecting growing concerns about an economic recession [2][8] - The manufacturing sector continues to show signs of contraction, with the ISM manufacturing PMI remaining below 50 for the tenth consecutive month [10] Group 4 - The impact of tariffs is a concern, as the May CPI did not reflect the effects of the 25% auto tariffs, but the EU's retaliatory tariffs effective June 1 could raise inflation in Q3 [11] - Geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe haven [7][12] - The market is advised to monitor the potential for a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario if progress is made in the upcoming Middle East peace conference [12]