美股暴击，美债狂欢：一场政治风暴下的金融乱局 昨夜的美股市场，仿佛被一记重锤狠狠砸下，标普500和纳斯达克综指双双暴跌，创下自今年4月以来的 最大单日跌幅。而与此同时，美债市场却迎来了一场狂欢，10年期美债收益率一度暴跌超过9个基点， 逼近4%的心理关口。 这一幕，像极了今年4月初特朗普突然抛出关税威胁时的市场动荡，但这一次， 剧本却截然不同。 特朗普的"嘴炮"与市场的恐慌 特朗普的言论，向来是金融市场的"定时炸弹"。这一次，他又一次在社交媒体上抛出重磅言论，直接点 燃了市场的避险情绪。但与4月那次不同的是，当时美债收益率飙升，而这一次，美债收益率却大幅下 行。 为什么？ 美债的狂欢：避险情绪与降息预期的双重推动 昨夜，10年期美债收益率一度暴跌至4.034%，3年期美债收益率更是暴跌超过10个基点。 这种剧烈的波 动，反映出市场对避险资产的强烈需求。 但为什么美债收益率会下行？ 因为市场在押注美联储的降息。根据CME市场预期，2025年美联储可能 还有两次合计50个基点的降息空间。 如果经济数据继续疲软，美联储的鸽派立场只会更加坚定。 此外，特朗普的政策也在影响市场。 他近期对油价的压制言论，加上美国经济数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a shift away from expectations of interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to control inflation rather than stimulate the economy, which could lead to a re-evaluation of investment strategies in gold and Bitcoin [1][3][26]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Cleveland Fed President Mester warns against loosening policies too quickly, stating that current inflation remains above the 2% target, and hasty rate cuts could undermine previous inflation control efforts [5]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic dismisses the need for rate cuts this year, predicting core inflation to rise to 3.1% by year-end and unemployment to reach 4.5% [5]. - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson acknowledges the dilemma of rising inflation risks while recognizing employment risks, suggesting a cautious approach to policy adjustments [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's hawkish comments, gold prices fell sharply, with New York futures dropping from $4,012 to $3,926, marking the largest single-day decline in two weeks [11]. - Bitcoin also experienced a significant drop, falling from $116,000 to $112,800, as institutional buying paused amid reduced expectations for rate cuts [13]. - The S&P 500 index declined by 1.1%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.3%, indicating a shift of funds from riskier assets to safer investments [15]. Group 3: Adjusted Market Predictions - Institutions have revised their rate cut expectations, with Deutsche Bank's previous forecast of three cuts in Q4 being overturned [16]. - Invesco has lowered its forecast to two cuts by year-end, while ICBC International warns that excessive easing could damage policy credibility, suggesting a gradual rate cut approach [18]. - This shift implies a significant reduction in the previously anticipated "easy money" environment that supported gold and Bitcoin prices [19]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Adjustments - The Fed's stance suggests a transition from betting on rate cuts to closely monitoring economic data [21]. - Investors are advised to focus on key indicators such as the upcoming Fed meeting on October 28 and weekly jobless claims to gauge employment pressures [23]. - A recommended asset allocation includes maintaining 10% in gold (primarily physical) and reducing Bitcoin exposure to 3% of discretionary funds, while avoiding leveraged contracts [23]. Group 5: Long-term Value Perspective - Despite the Fed's cautious approach, the fundamental logic for gold and Bitcoin remains intact, as long as M2 money supply continues to grow and currency devaluation persists [26]. - The previous "rapid growth model" for assets is expected to shift to a "volatile upward trend," emphasizing the importance of long-term holding strategies over short-term speculation [30].

Group 1: Market Data Summary - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a -15.67bp change, DR007 at 1.53 with a -7.04bp change, GC001 at 1.36 with a -13.50bp change, and GC007 at 0.00 with a -187.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.39 (-1.00bp), 1.63 (-0.73bp), and 1.88 (-0.78bp) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.20 with a 2.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 2467.4 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 940.6 billion yuan [4] - This week, 516.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchase will mature, with 240.5 billion and 276.1 billion maturing on Monday and Tuesday respectively, and 300 billion yuan in 182 - day buy - out reverse repurchase maturing on Tuesday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices: CSI 300 at 4550 (-0.95%), SSE 50 at 2941 (-0.40%), CSI 500 at 7241 (-1.37%), and CSI 1000 at 7398 (-1.45%) [6] - The closing prices and changes of index futures contracts: IF at 4543 (-0.9%), IH at 2945 (-0.3%), IC at 7203 (-1.2%), and IM at 7357 (-1.2%) [6] - Trading volume and open interest changes: IF volume decreased by 9.3% to 121085, IH volume decreased by 6.9% to 48226, IC volume increased by 4.9% to 136035, and IM volume increased by 14.2% to 242990; IF open interest decreased by 2.4% to 259924, IH open interest increased by 1.1% to 95988, IC open interest increased by 1.4% to 252224, and IM open interest increased by 3.3% to 364864 [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9, SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7, CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2; only the power equipment (3.9%) and electronics (3.5%) sectors in the Shenwan primary industry index rose, while banking (-0.5%), non - ferrous metals (-3.5%), non - banking finance (-0.1%), steel (-1.1%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-2%) led the decline [6] - As of September 25, the margin trading balance in the A - share market was 2436.61 billion yuan, an increase of 46.18 billion yuan from the previous week [6] Group 3: Market Outlook and Analysis - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a self - centered approach while considering internal and external balance, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [5] - Recently, the macro news has been calm, and the stock index has been oscillating; due to poor domestic economic data, there is a stronger expectation for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending [7] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in October, focusing on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan and analyzing the current economic situation, which is worthy of attention [7] - The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims to guide the A - share market to a "slow - bull" pattern, and it is recommended to adjust and go long, while controlling positions before the holiday [7] Group 4: Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates: 0.00% for the current - month contract, 2.62% for the next - month contract, 2.45% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.31% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH premium/discount rates: -2.73% for the current - month contract, -0.50% for the next - month contract, -0.51% for the current - quarter contract, and -0.04% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC premium/discount rates: 10.16% for the current - month contract, 9.81% for the next - month contract, 9.89% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.76% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM premium/discount rates: 10.54% for the current - month contract, 11.55% for the next - month contract, 12.54% for the current - quarter contract, and 12.13% for the next - quarter contract [8]

Group 1: European Debt Market - Societe Generale indicates a significant downtrend in both realized and implied volatility in the European government bond market, creating favorable conditions for arbitrage trading [1] - The firm highlights French government bonds (OATs) as particularly attractive, alongside Spanish and Italian bonds, due to recent credit rating upgrades and anticipated improvements in ratings [1] Group 2: Indonesia Economic Outlook - Fitch's BMI notes that Indonesia's GDP growth may gradually slow over the next decade due to domestic political concerns and structural issues, despite the president's ambitious growth targets [2] - The report suggests that these measures may not be sufficient to elevate growth rates above the long-term average of 5.0% [2] Group 3: Japan's Trade and Investment - Capital Economics believes that if Japanese companies continue to serve U.S. clients through subsidiaries, the impact of U.S. trade policies on profits and investments will be limited [2] - Despite pressures from U.S. tariffs, Japan's direct foreign investment in the U.S. is expected to reach a record high this year, driven by strong U.S. economic performance [2] Group 4: Thai Baht and Monetary Policy - Citigroup anticipates that the Bank of Thailand may lower interest rates in October to curb the rapid appreciation of the Thai baht, which has risen nearly 6% this year [2] Group 5: UK Economic Concerns - Barclays analysts point out that the combination of a strong dollar and weakened domestic growth is suppressing the British pound, with policy uncertainty ahead of the November budget exacerbating the situation [3][4] - The unexpected rise in public borrowing and weak bond auctions are further damaging market sentiment towards the pound [4] Group 6: Eurozone Debt Supply - Barclays expects a slowdown in Eurozone government debt supply in October, forecasting total issuance of €116 billion, down from approximately €127 billion in September [4][5] - The report also notes that redemptions are expected to rise to €118 billion, indicating a shift in the debt market dynamics [5] Group 7: Singapore Manufacturing Sector - DBS Bank reports that Singapore's manufacturing sector is likely to continue experiencing volatility, with August output declining by 7.8% year-on-year, marking the largest drop since March 2024 [5] - The semiconductor cycle remains supported by structural developments in artificial intelligence, despite global economic uncertainties [5]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to above 4.14% after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, despite expectations of a decline [1][2] - The stock market reached record highs with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000 indices all setting new records [1] - The rise in long-term bond yields is attributed to market behavior of "buying the expectation and selling the fact" following the Fed's rate cut [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns about persistent inflation are significant, as recent data indicates that inflation remains sticky, complicating the Fed's ability to lower rates further [2][5] - High long-term yields increase government interest payments, potentially exacerbating the fiscal deficit and creating a vicious cycle [3][6] - The current economic environment poses a challenge for sustaining long-term financing costs above 4% [3] Group 3 - Future downward potential for long-term yields may be limited, with the Fed's dot plot indicating a median forecast for the federal funds rate at 3.6% by the end of 2025 [4][5] - The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts suggests that long-term Treasury yields may not quickly fall below 3% [5][6] - The market is adapting to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, necessitating a reassessment of asset allocations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, highlighting market behaviors and concerns regarding inflation and fiscal sustainability [2][3]. Group 1: Long-term Treasury Yields - After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to above 4.14%, while the 30-year yield exceeded 4.75% [2][3]. - The rise in yields is attributed to a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" market behavior, where investors had already priced in the rate cuts, leading to profit-taking after the actual cuts occurred [3]. - Concerns about persistent inflation have also contributed to the rise in long-term yields, as the market anticipates that inflation may not easily return to the Fed's 2% target [3]. Group 2: Risks Signaled by Bond Market - The high long-term yields signal two major risks: unsustainable fiscal deficits and skepticism about the pace of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. - Elevated yields increase the government's interest payments on its substantial debt, potentially leading to a vicious cycle of rising deficits and inflation [5]. - The stock market has reacted positively to the rate cuts, particularly in technology stocks, while the bond market's concerns about inflation have pushed yields higher [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook on Yields - The article suggests that the downward space for long-term Treasury yields may be limited, with the Fed's projections indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [7][8]. - The Fed's median forecast for the federal funds rate suggests a gradual decline, with long-term rates likely remaining above 3% [7][8]. - The market is adapting to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, necessitating a reassessment of asset allocations under this new paradigm [10].

Core Viewpoint - Dutch International Group's interest rate strategists maintain a neutral stance on U.S. Treasuries in the short term, anticipating a relatively mild core PCE month-on-month increase of 0.2%, which may boost market optimism and drive down Treasury yields [1] Group 1 - The strategists expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise to 4.5% by 2026 [1] - There is a potential opportunity to shift towards a more bearish position on 10-year U.S. Treasuries at the appropriate time [1] - The Federal Reserve shows little concern regarding economic growth prospects, and recent unemployment claims data indicates a positive outlook for the current job market [1] Group 2 - Inflation data is expected to begin rising, with ongoing supply-side pressures [1] - These combined factors suggest an upward trend in yields [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index trend continues to be bullish, but the policy aims to guide the A-share market to run in a "slow bull" pattern. It is recommended to adjust and go long, and control positions before the holiday. The market has policy expectations for the "922" press conference, and last year's similar press conference launched a series of policy "combinations." Last week, positive factors were mainly overseas, with positive signals from Sino-US economic and trade talks and the Fed's first interest rate cut this year being beneficial to A-shares, while domestic economic data was poor, increasing the necessity of promoting consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and expanding fiscal policies [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.46 with a -4.83bp change, DR007 at 1.51 with a -4.70bp change, GC001 at 1.40 with a 17.50bp change, GC007 at 1.55 with an 8.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.56 with a 0.60bp change, LPR 5-year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change, 1-year treasury at 1.41 with a 0.62bp change, 5-year treasury at 1.62 with a 2.97bp change, 10-year treasury at 1.88 with a 2.54bp change, and 10-year US treasury at 4.14 with a 3.00bp change [4] - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 22, the closing prices and changes of stock index futures were as follows:沪深300 closed at 4502 with a 0.08% change, IF当月 at 4510 with a 0.5% change, 上证50 at 2910 with a -0.11% change, IH当月 at 2918 with a 0.3% change, 中证500 at 7170 with a -0.41% change, IC当月 at 7182 with a 0.1% change, 中证1000 at 7438 with a -0.51% change, IM当月 at 7448 with a -0.1% change. The trading volume and open interest of IF decreased by 25.9 and 11.0 respectively, IH by 33.1 and 16.6, IC by 20.6 and 9.2, and IM by 25.7 and 10.1 [6] - **Stock Market Review**: The previous day's closing, 沪深300 fell 0.21% to 4523.3, 上证50 fell 0.5% to 2947.8, 中证500 rose 0.75% to 7191, 中证1000 rose 0.92% to 7483.6. The trading volume of the two markets reached 31352 billion, a significant increase of 7584 billion. Most industry sectors fell, while the automobile service and tourism hotel sectors strengthened, and the precious metals, energy metals, non-ferrous metals, real estate services, diversified finance, small metals, and securities sectors led the decline [6] - **Open Market Operations**: Last week, the central bank had 12645 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits due. It conducted 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposit operations, and 6000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net full - caliber injection of 11923 billion yuan. This week, 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on September 25 [4][5] Market Expectations - The market has policy expectations for the "922" press conference. Last year's similar press conference launched a series of policy "combinations" including comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, stock repurchase re - loans, and securities - fund - insurance company swap facilities [7] Ascending and Descending Water Conditions - The ascending and descending water conditions of stock index futures contracts are as follows: IF升贴水 for the next - month contract is 4.65%, the current - quarter contract is 3.42%, and the next - quarter contract is 2.77%; IH升贴水 for the next - month contract is - 1.67%, the current - quarter contract is - 0.52%, and the next - quarter contract is - 0.38%; IC升贴水 for the next - month contract is 12.79%, the current - quarter contract is 10.66%, and the next - quarter contract is 9.85%; IM升贴水 for the next - month contract is 17.81%, the current - quarter contract is 13.64%, and the next - quarter contract is 12.51% [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut from 4.5% to 4.25% [1][2][24] - Historical patterns indicate that once the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, various asset classes often experience significant rallies [2][4] - The current economic indicators suggest that the ongoing rate cut cycle resembles the preventive rate cuts of 1995, with a low unemployment rate of 4.1% and GDP growth [9][10] Group 2 - The article outlines three historical rate-cutting scenarios: preventive (1995), crisis (2007), and panic (2020), each leading to different asset performance outcomes [11][12][19] - In the 1995 scenario, a modest rate cut led to a significant bull market in stocks, while the 2007 cuts preceded a major financial crisis [6][7][10] - The 2020 emergency cuts resulted in unprecedented liquidity, causing Bitcoin to surge from $3,800 to $69,000, highlighting the impact of aggressive monetary policy on asset prices [8][18][19] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the context of rate cuts, as the reasons behind them can significantly influence market reactions [31][32] - It notes that the current market sentiment is cautious yet optimistic, with Bitcoin trading near historical highs, unlike the previous bear market conditions seen in 2019 [27][49] - The potential for a "rational prosperity" scenario is discussed, where Bitcoin may not see explosive growth but could experience steady increases as liquidity increases [27][49] Group 4 - The performance of traditional assets during rate-cutting cycles is analyzed, showing that not all rate cuts lead to stock market rallies [30][31] - Defensive sectors tend to outperform during economic downturns, while cyclical sectors may do better in stronger economic conditions [32][34] - The article also highlights the stable performance of gold during rate cuts, with an average increase of 32% over two years in past cycles [40][44][45] Group 5 - The article concludes by suggesting that the next 6-12 months could be critical for asset performance as the current rate-cutting cycle progresses [50][51] - It raises the possibility of unexpected events influencing market dynamics, such as geopolitical tensions or technological advancements [51][52] - The changing landscape of the monetary system and the role of cryptocurrencies as a reflection of these changes are emphasized [53][54]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut, reflecting its "survival wisdom" under political pressure from the White House, particularly from Trump, who has remained unusually silent on this decision [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was passed with a surprising 11-1 vote, showcasing unexpected unity within the institution despite external pressures [1][7]. - The rate cut is characterized as a "preemptive cut" aimed at managing risks before a potential economic downturn occurs [14][18]. - Powell's statements during the announcement emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management decision" and downplayed expectations for rapid adjustments to interest rates [6][18]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - Recent adjustments to employment data, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs, indicate a weakening labor market, prompting the Fed's decision to cut rates to prevent further economic decline [6][10]. - Historical precedents of preemptive rate cuts have led to varied outcomes, including soft landings, recessions, and high inflation, raising questions about the potential consequences of the current cut [15][17]. - The current economic environment is marked by persistent inflation pressures, particularly in the service sector, complicating the Fed's decision to lower rates [17][23]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, gold prices initially surged to a historical high before retreating, indicating market reactions to the Fed's signals [18][24]. - The dollar index fell to its lowest point since February 2022 but began to recover after Powell's remarks, suggesting a complex market response to the Fed's actions [18][23]. - Analysts predict that the 10-year Treasury yield will stabilize around 4.4% in the coming years, with the Fed expected to gradually lower the federal funds rate [23].