局部战争冲击债市的窗口通常不超过数周，真正撬动利率的始终是通胀预期与货币 政策。 投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 王一凡(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031722 | | | wangyifan4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524120001 | | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 把握春季行情下半场 2026.02.23 春节期间不可错过的事情 2026.02.23 央行视角下的货币财政协同与存款搬家 2026.02.11 沃什获提名：联储的独立性变化与美债策略应对 2026.01.31 首批申报，商业不动产 REITs 带来的资产重估逻 冲突时刻，海外债利率如何走 本报告导读： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.03 究 事 件 点 评 辑 2026.01.30 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 证 券 研 究 报 告 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 中东突变，大类资产如何演绎 [Table_Summary] 2026年 2月 28日，美国和以色列联合对伊朗发起"先发 制人"的军事打击，随后伊朗宣布将对以色列发动"毁灭性 打击"，同时也对美国在中东部署的军事基地予以还击，28 日 阿联酋、巴林、科威特、沙特等海湾多国均发生爆炸，中东 区域地缘冲突全面加剧并扩散。 ►以史为鉴，"涨在预期，卖在现实" 面对突如其来的纷争升级，各类资产将如何演绎，"战争 时长"或是决定行情发酵程度的关键变量。回顾历史，美方 在中东区域主导的战争往往以两种形式收场，其一为闪电 战，如 2025 年 6 月的伊以冲突；一旦闪电战无法取得决定性 突破，战争便会演变成第二类结果，拉锯战，典型案例为 2003 年 3 月的伊拉克战争。 战争冲突对资产价格的影响，基本呈现"涨在预期，卖 在现实"的特征。如果冲突爆发突然，之前的市场预期并不 充分，可能在开战首个交易日，资产价格大幅脉冲，而随后 涨跌势均收窄，甚至逆转。战争开启之后，各类资产价格的 走向，与市场对战争持续时长的预 ...

④欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数跌0.02%报25284.26点，法国CAC40指数跌0.47%报 8580.75点，英国富时100指数涨0.59%报10910.55点； ①美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌1.05%报48977.92点，标普500指数跌0.43%报6878.88点，纳指跌 0.92%报22668.21点； ②美国大型科技股多数下跌，英伟达跌超4%，苹果跌逾3%，微软跌超2%，特斯拉、脸书跌超1%，谷 歌涨超1%，亚马逊涨约1%； ③中概股多数下跌，阿特斯太阳能跌超11%，爱奇艺跌逾6%，世纪互联跌超5%，蔚来跌逾4%，晶科能 源跌超4%，金山云涨近7%，涂鸦智能涨近5%，中通快递涨超1%，小马智行涨近1%； ⑤国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.97%报5296.40美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨7.77% 报94.39美元/盎司； ⑥美油主力合约收涨3.19%，报67.29美元/桶，布油主力合约涨3.26%，报73.15美元/桶； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.15%报97.64，离岸人民币对美元跌168.0个基点报6.8612； ⑧伦敦基本金属多数收跌，LME期铜跌0.0 ...

来源：华尔街情报圈 ——这是一种气质的改变，而气质的改变，往往比价格更早。 全球市场周五深夜完成了一次"集体转向"——不是暴跌式崩盘，但背后的变化，往往比单日大跌更值得 警惕： - 美国股市继续下跌，道琼斯指数跌1.07%，标普500指数跌0.43%，纳斯达克指数跌0.92%； - 10年期美债收益率远远跌破4%（报3.94%），触及10月份以来最低水平。2年期收益率跌至2022年以来 最低水平（报3.37%）； - 金价上涨近100美元，远远突破5200美元； - 美元指数冲高回落，以小幅下跌作收； - 英国一家鲜为人知的抵押贷款机构MFS爆雷，加剧了市场对私募信贷系统性违约的担忧——如果私募 信贷违约率上升，科技公司估值会被重新定价，这和AI泡沫焦虑是连着的。 第二，市场进入了"风险关闭模式"：股票跌、债券涨、黄金涨、原油涨，万物皆感寒意。 - 美股下跌，恐慌有蔓延的可能。尤其是这次下跌，关联了原油和美国国债上涨。 - 令我们印象最为深刻的是，10年期美债收益率跌破4%，过去三个月该收益率每次接近或触及4%，都 会向上弹起，但这次不一样，直接跌穿，且没有迅速反抽——这意味着避险需求压倒通胀担忧。尤其是 P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic and overseas macro - environment in China remains stable. Domestically, the approaching "Two Sessions" brings positive policy expectations that strongly support the market. Overseas, the planned visit of Trump from March 31 to April 2 and the potential Sino - US summit reduce the short - term possibility of trade risks. The risk preference of the equity market is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to continue holding long - term long positions in stock index futures [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Macro - financial Data - DRO01 closed at 1.37, down 1.71bp from the previous value; DR007 closed at 1.48, down 2.31bp [3] - GC001 closed at 1.55, unchanged; GC007 closed at 1.59, down 0.50bp [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.57, down 0.30bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50, unchanged [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.30, unchanged; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.54, down 0.20bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.79, down 2.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.05, up 1.00bp [3] - The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. The bid volume, winning bid volume were both 320.5 billion yuan. With 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal on the day was 79.5 billion yuan [3] - In February, the LPR rate remained unchanged: the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. During the week after the Spring Festival holiday (February 24 - 28), 2.2524 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Additionally, 300 billion yuan of MLF and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature on February 25 [4] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4727, down 0.19%; IF current - month contract closed at 4712, down 0.4% [5] - The SSE 50 closed at 3035, down 0.65%; IH current - month contract closed at 3035, down 0.8% [5] - The CSI 500 closed at 8557, up 0.35%; IC current - month contract closed at 8537, up 0.1% [5] - The CSI 1000 closed at 8491, up 0.76%; IM current - month contract closed at 8443, up 0.4% [5] - The trading volume of IF was 85,824, down 19.3%; the open interest was 269,977, down 4.7% [5] - The trading volume of IH was 42,698, down 19.0%; the open interest was 105,405, down 3.3% [5] - The trading volume of IC was 114,851, down 9.6%; the open interest was 290,740, down 2.6% [5] - The trading volume of IM was 145,580, down 12.6%; the open interest was 357,540, down 4.0% [5] - The turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets was 2.5568 trillion yuan, an increase of 75.6 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with electronic components, wind power equipment, communication equipment, power supply equipment, electronic chemicals, and power grid equipment sectors leading the gains, while film and television theaters, rare earths, insurance, and real estate development sectors leading the losses [5] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.15%, 3.13%, 3.80%, and 4.24% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 0.26%, - 0.32%, 0.43%, and 2.23% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 3.84%, 3.60%, 4.90%, and 5.42% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 9.23%, 7.95%, 8.76%, and 8.78% respectively [7]

⑧伦敦基本金属全线上涨，LME期锡涨7.19%报53915.0美元/吨，LME期铝涨2.62%报3174.5美元/吨， LME期铅涨2.07%报1995.5美元/吨，LME期铜涨1.39%报13349.5美元/吨，LME期镍涨0.76%报18045.0美 元/吨，LME期锌涨0.22%报3387.0美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨3.10个基点报3.471%，3年期美债收益率涨3.06个基点报 3.486%，5年期美债收益率涨3.29个基点报3.622%，10年期美债收益率涨2.10个基点报4.052%，30年期 美债收益率涨1.94个基点报4.699%； ⑩欧债收益率涨跌不一，英国10年期国债收益率涨1.2个基点报4.316%，法国10年期国债收益率跌1.2个 基点报3.253%，德国10年期国债收益率涨0.1个基点报2.705%，意大利10年期国债收益率跌0.6个基点报 3.306%，西班牙10年期国债收益率跌0.9个基点报3.108%。 ④欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，德国DAX指数涨0.73%报25169.13点，法国CAC40指数涨0.4%报8553.11 点，英国富时100指数涨1 ...

来源：华尔街情报圈 市场试图预测不可预测之事：特朗普的下一句话。 周二是令投资者神经错乱的一天： 周二的行情是"防守过度后的回踩"。 第一，这并非是风险偏好回升，如果是，那么黄金会横盘或小涨，比特币会跟涨。从关联性看，黄金不 再与美股同涨，比特币也未能追随美股的涨势，美股这样的涨势令人不安，更像是去拥挤后的技术修 复。所有人都在防守，当仓位已经防守，市场反而更容易因为"没有更坏"而上涨（本质是"仓位驱动"的 反弹，而不是"预期驱动"的上涨）。 第二，黄金的两波下跌值得留意。一波发生在北京时间08:00-09:00（没有等风险情绪确认就先跌），另 一波发生在20:00-21:00，这是消息面清淡的两个时段，金价靠"自然惯性"是推不动的。黄金现在不是趋 势加速阶段，而是情绪消退阶段。过去几周，黄金与美股是"同涨"状态，这代表流动性主导，美元弱化 预期。但周二"美股涨，黄金跌"，意味着其可能重新回到"避险资产"属性，而不是"流动性资产"。需要 再观察几个交易日黄金和美股的关联性。 第三，今天的关注焦点是特朗普发表的国情咨文（北京时间10:00开始，预计长达2-3小时），交易员们 关注他在处理伊朗问题和关税问题上，用 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets exhibited a stable performance during the Spring Festival holiday, setting a favorable external environment for the A-share market's reopening, with key drivers including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a recovery in industrial metal demand [3][6][13]. Equity Markets - The A-share market experienced a slight decline before the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4082.07 points, down 1.26%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.28% [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market was the only major Asian market open during the holiday, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.52% to 26705.94 points, driven by sectors such as semiconductors and AI applications [5]. - The U.S. stock market remained stable, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.10% and the S&P 500 maintaining a strong position, supported by robust corporate earnings and expectations of interest rate cuts [5][14]. Debt Market and Currency - The U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 3.85%, reflecting an 80% probability of a rate cut by June, driven by easing inflation data [6][13]. - The exchange rate remained stable, with the USD/CNY rate at 6.9225, supported by the People's Bank of China's liquidity measures and narrowing interest rate differentials [6]. Commodity Market - Industrial metals showed strong performance, with copper prices rising by 1.4% to $13,176 per ton, benefiting from global demand recovery and expectations of liquidity easing [7]. - Oil prices remained stable, with WTI crude oil slightly increasing to $62.89 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [7]. Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a bullish trend post-holiday, with historical data indicating a 76% probability of an increase in the first five trading days after the Spring Festival [9]. - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to undergo a structural rebound, with a 60% probability of an increase in the month following the holiday, driven by external sentiment and capital inflows [11]. - The U.S. market is projected to continue its strong performance, particularly in technology sectors, supported by favorable interest rate expectations and solid corporate earnings [14].

Group 1: CPI Overview - In January 2026, the overall CPI in the U.S. increased by 0.17%, below the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.30%[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.30%, matching expectations and up from 0.23% in the previous month[2] - Year-on-year CPI growth was 2.39%, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous 2.68%[2] Group 2: Inflation Structure - The decline in overall CPI was primarily due to a significant drop in gasoline prices, which negatively impacted energy inflation[2] - Super core service inflation recorded a new high in year-on-year growth, indicating persistent inflationary pressure in this sector[2] - Excluding the unusual drop in used car prices, the core goods inflation is expected to rebound more significantly in the coming months[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The expectation of expansive fiscal and monetary policies, along with seasonal impulses, is likely to support a phase of demand expansion in the U.S. economy in Q1 2026[2] - There are upward risks for non-farm payrolls and core CPI growth in February and March 2026, with the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve anticipated in June 2026[2] - Risks include potential overreach of Trump policies, excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high-interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]

路透调查显示，长端美债收益率短期内将持稳，但受通胀及美联储独立性担忧影响，年内晚些时候将趋 于上行；短端收益率则因降息押注温和走低。与此同时，近60%的债券策略师（37人中的21人）认为， 为特朗普减税及支出计划融资而面临的未来数年巨额国债发行，将使美联储大幅缩减6.6万亿美元资产 负债表不具可行性。另一项路透调查显示，美联储预计将在今年晚些时候实施两次降息，首次在沃什接 任美联储主席的6月。对利率敏感的2年期美债收益率预计将从目前的3.50%降至4月底的3.45%、7月底 的3.38%。调查中值还显示，基准10年期美债收益率一年后料升至4.29%，高于上月预测的4.20%。 来源：滚动播报 ...