从1972年11月6日尼克松连任选举前一天，美元指数、美股先涨后大跌。10年期美债收益率涨逾130个基 点，一度达到约7.6%。 在尼克松于1970年任命伯恩斯担任美联储主席后，他曾以抗击通胀而闻名。但在随后通胀日益加剧的情 况下，来自尼克松录音带的证据显示，尼克松曾直接和间接地向伯恩斯施压，要求他在1972年大选前采 取扩张性货币政策。这最终导致美国通胀失控。 在此前后，衡量美元对一篮子外币汇率的ICE美元指数在1971年8月尼克松正式取消美元与黄金挂钩， 退出金本位制，且当时美国还面临巨额国际收支赤字的情况下持续大幅下跌。此后，伴随美联储当时在 尼克松施压下大幅降息，该指数从1972年11月6日（选举前一天）开始上涨，于次年1月达到峰值，也恰 逢美股高点，但随即转跌，至1973年7月的低点，累计下跌18%。 美股同样先涨后跌。道琼斯工业指数在1972年11月6日~1973年1月中旬尼克松连任就职典礼前后，达到 峰值，期间上涨超过6%。但在达到峰值后一年内，30只蓝筹股平均价格暴跌19%，达到峰值后两年 内，上述股票的平均价格更一度暴跌44%。 此外，随着通胀进一步恶化，10年期美国国债收益率飙升。从197 ...

Global Asset Price Performance - US Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield down by 7 basis points, likely due to dovish comments from Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting [2] - Major global stock markets saw mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones increasing by 0.3% and 1.5% respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.6% [2] - Oil prices rebounded, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively, and gold prices increased by 1.1% [2] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Powell signaled a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting, indicating that the Fed may need to adjust its policy stance due to increased risks of employment downturn and reduced inflation risks [4] - The Fed's July meeting minutes suggested that officials believe interest rates are close to neutral, and maintaining the current stance is appropriate [4] - The Bank of Japan approved the first domestic yen stablecoin, JPYC, supporting financial technology innovation [4] US Economic Dynamics - The US housing market remains weak, with July new housing starts showing a year-on-year increase primarily due to a low base from the previous year [8] - The NAHB housing market index slightly decreased to 32, remaining in negative territory for 16 consecutive months [8] - The US has added 407 steel and aluminum products to its tariff list, with a 50% tax rate, which may increase procurement costs for downstream manufacturing companies [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone showed resilience with a 0.1% GDP growth in Q2 and a July CPI annual rate of 2%, aligning with the ECB's target [19] - Japan's long-term bond yields have risen, with the 20-year yield reaching 2.7%, the highest since 1999, driven by inflation expectations and concerns over fiscal expansion [19]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential monetary policy easing in September if inflation continues to decline, marking a significant shift in policy direction [2][3] - The market reacted strongly, with gold prices surging 3.2% to over $2500 per ounce, Brent crude oil surpassing $95, and the offshore RMB appreciating over 500 basis points in a single day [2][4] - The probability of a rate cut in September jumped from 32% to 78%, with expectations for cumulative cuts in 2023 increasing from 75 basis points to 125 basis points [3] Group 2 - Powell acknowledged a clear trend of declining inflation, with the core PCE price index remaining between 2.3% and 2.5% for five consecutive months [3] - The current interest rate of 5.25%-5.5% may exceed the neutral rate, raising concerns about the risks of over-tightening [3] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with non-farm payrolls adding only 185,000 jobs in July, below the expected 220,000 [3] Group 3 - Global asset prices began a "repricing" phase, with gold and oil markets experiencing significant gains due to expectations of lower real interest rates and geopolitical risks [4] - The oil market is supported by expectations of a weaker dollar, with UBS estimating that a 1% drop in the dollar index typically leads to a 1.5%-2% increase in oil prices [4] - The stock market showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq reaching a record high while the Dow Jones faced slight declines due to banking sector pressures [4] Group 4 - Central banks worldwide are adjusting their policies in response to the Fed's shift, with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank signaling potential rate cuts [5] - Emerging markets are also accelerating their easing measures, with Brazil and India taking notable actions [5] - The trend towards "de-dollarization" is evident, with countries like Russia increasing their yuan reserves and Argentina replacing the dollar in trade settlements [5] Group 5 - Investment strategies may need recalibration, with gold mining stocks and industrial metals being favored due to their benefits from a weaker dollar and increased demand for new energy [6] - Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds are seen as an attractive option, with the 10-year yield potentially dropping to 3.8% [6] - Technology growth stocks, particularly in AI and quantum computing, remain preferred investments in a loosening monetary environment [6]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the S&P 500 down 0.4%, the Dow Jones down 0.34%, and the Nasdaq down 0.34% [1] - Most large tech stocks fell, including Tesla down over 1%, Facebook down more than 1%, Amazon down 0.83%, Apple down 0.49%, Nvidia down 0.24%, Microsoft down 0.13%, while Google rose 0.22% [1] Chinese Stocks - Most Chinese stocks saw gains, with Xiaoying Technology up over 16%, XPeng Motors up more than 11%, Manbang Group up over 10%, NIO up over 9%, and Tiger Brokers up over 6% [1] - However, Zhengye Technology fell approximately 30%, Yipeng Energy dropped over 23%, Canadian Solar down over 18%, Hesai Technology down about 11%, and Century Interconnect down over 8% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX index up 0.02% at 24280.64 points, France's CAC40 down 0.47% at 7935.2 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.23% at 9309.2 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.15% at $3383.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.87% at $38.1 per ounce [1] - US oil main contract rose 1.23% to $63.48 per barrel, while Brent crude main contract increased 1.14% to $67.60 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.65, while the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell by 17 basis points to 7.1833 [1] - US Treasury yields collectively increased, with the 2-year yield up 4.19 basis points to 3.781%, the 3-year yield up 3.92 basis points to 3.736%, the 5-year yield up 3.49 basis points to 3.841%, the 10-year yield up 2.92 basis points to 4.316%, and the 30-year yield up 2.14 basis points to 4.908% [1] - European bond yields generally rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 5.7 basis points to 4.727%, France's 10-year yield up 4.9 basis points to 3.460%, Germany's 10-year yield up 3.9 basis points to 2.755%, Italy's 10-year yield up 5.5 basis points to 3.578%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 4.8 basis points to 3.342% [1]

Market Overview - US stock indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.23%, S&P 500 down 0.84%, and Nasdaq Composite dropping 1.51% [1] - Major tech stocks fell, with the "Magnificent Seven" index down 2%, and Nvidia and Tesla dropping over 3% [1] - Nvidia's market value decreased by over $155 billion following a 3.5% drop on August 19, continuing its decline with a further drop of 3.54% [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, maintaining the same growth rate as June, while the core CPI rose to 3.1% from 2.9% in June, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [3] - The market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased following the stable CPI data [3] Investment Sentiment - Wall Street shows mixed views on the future of US stocks, with a prevailing optimistic sentiment as several financial institutions raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 index [5] - Citigroup raised its target from 6300 to 6600, while UBS increased its target from 5500 to 6100 [5] - A survey indicated that 45% of fund managers consider "going long on the Magnificent Seven" as the most crowded trade [5] Valuation Concerns - Howard Marks from Oaktree Capital noted that while the average P/E ratio for the Magnificent Seven is about 33, it is justified due to their strong market positions and profitability [6] - In contrast, the average P/E ratio for the remaining S&P 500 companies is 22, significantly above historical averages, raising concerns about overall market valuation [6] Economic Outlook - Stifel warned of a potential downturn, suggesting that the S&P 500 could drop by up to 14% by year-end, potentially closing at 5500 [6] - Morgan Stanley's CIO highlighted mixed signals in economic data, indicating risks from a cooling labor market and rising price pressures [6]

Market Overview - US stock market indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.23%, S&P 500 down 0.84%, and Nasdaq down 1.51%, falling below 21,000 points [1] - Major tech stocks, including Nvidia and Tesla, saw declines exceeding 3%, contributing to the overall market downturn [1][2] Technology Sector - Nvidia's stock fell by 3.5%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over $155 billion, with further declines noted on subsequent trading days [2][3] - The technology sector's performance is under scrutiny, with the "Big Seven" tech stocks being a focal point for investors, as 45% of fund managers consider "going long" on these stocks the most crowded trade [10] Economic Indicators - The US consumer price index (CPI) showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7% in July, maintaining the same growth rate as June, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [7][8] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are tempered, with analysts suggesting that a 50 basis point cut is unlikely [6] Investment Sentiment - Optimism in the market is reflected in revised year-end targets for the S&P 500, with Citigroup raising its target from 6,300 to 6,600 points and UBS from 5,500 to 6,100 points [9] - Despite the positive sentiment, there are warnings from investment firms about potential economic slowdowns and the risks associated with high valuations in the stock market [11]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.02%, the S&P 500 down 0.59%, and the Nasdaq down 1.46% [1] - Major US tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down over 3%, META down over 2%, and Tesla, Amazon, and Microsoft down over 1% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell, with Xunlei down over 10%, Weibo down over 6%, and New Oriental, iQIYI, and Miniso down over 2% [1] European Market - All three major European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX index up 0.45%, France's CAC40 index up 1.22%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index up 0.34% [1] Commodities - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.57% at $3358.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.84% at $37.33 per ounce [1] - US oil main contract fell 1.12% to $62.00 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract dropped 0.95% to $65.97 per barrel [1] Currency and Bonds - The US dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.28, while the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell by 4 basis points to 7.1882 [1] - US Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 1.69 basis points to 3.738% and the 10-year yield down 2.54 basis points to 4.306% [1] - European bond yields mostly fell, with the UK 10-year yield up 0.3 basis points to 4.738%, while the German 10-year yield fell 1.3 basis points to 2.747% [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.04%, the S&P 500 up 0.32%, and the Nasdaq up 0.14% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Microsoft down over 1%, Facebook down more than 1%, Nvidia down 0.88%, Google down 0.68%, Tesla down 0.47%, while Amazon and Apple both rose over 1% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with Newegg up over 24%, Linklogis up more than 18%, Pony.ai up over 7%, Futu Holdings up over 6%, and BeiGene up over 6%. In contrast, Genetron Holdings fell over 8%, and Global Data fell more than 6% [1] - European stock indices all closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 0.67%, France's CAC40 up 0.66%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.19% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.24% at $3407.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.44% at $38.55 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract fell 0.68% to $62.74 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract dropped 0.54% to $65.76 per barrel [1] - London base metals all fell, with LME lead down 1.36% at $1988.00 per ton, LME zinc down 1.26% at $2811.50 per ton, and LME copper down 0.65% at $9777.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 5.84 basis points to 3.668%, the 3-year yield down 6.94 basis points to 3.633%, the 5-year yield down 6.78 basis points to 3.756%, the 10-year yield down 6 basis points to 4.231%, and the 30-year yield down 5.74 basis points to 4.824% [1] - European bond yields also fell collectively, with the UK 10-year yield down 3.6 basis points to 4.587%, France's 10-year yield down 7.4 basis points to 3.333%, Germany's 10-year yield down 6.5 basis points to 2.677%, Italy's 10-year yield down 8 basis points to 3.448%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 6.8 basis points to 3.229% [1]

Economic Indicators - US Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated an openness to a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September[4] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose by 2.7% year-on-year, which is lower than expected[4] - The total US national debt has exceeded $37 trillion for the first time[4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 21,681.90, up 1.39%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,458.61, up 1.10%[5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,445.76, up 1.13%[5] Commodity Prices - The price of Brent crude oil was $66.71, up 0.18%[5] - The spot price of gold was $3,347.64, up 0.18%[5] - Bitcoin futures on CME closed at $119,230.00, up 1.95%[5] Regional Market Insights - Hong Kong's capital market saw a new IPO fundraising total increase of over six times year-on-year in the first seven months of this year[4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,969.68, up 0.25%[5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,665.92, up 0.50%[5]

原油最新行情趋势分析： 原油消息面解析：周二国际原油价格小幅走高，因美国与亚洲大国同意延长关税暂停90天，市场担忧贸易担忧情绪的情绪明显缓解。布伦特原油期货平盘， 报每桶66.65美元；美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货小幅震荡，至每桶63.89美元。美国方面表示，此次延长关税暂停旨在避免年末假期消费季受到冲 击，同时也为双方进一步谈判提供时间。市场普遍认为，这一举措有望促成协议达成，避免两国经济增长受压，从而支撑全球原油需求。从目前形势看，关 税暂停和俄乌和谈预期同时为油市带来短期利好，但实际效果取决于谈判成果以及美联储政策走向。一旦谈判破裂或通胀数据高于预期，油价可能重新承 压。因此，需密切关注政治与经济信号的同步变化。 原油技术面分析：原油从日线图级别看，K线连续七个交易日收阴线，油价跌破原震荡区间下沿，中期主观趋势向下。均线系统尚未形成空头排列，中期客 观趋势处于转换期。从动能看，MACD指标在逐步下穿零轴位置，空头动能逐步转强。预计原油中期走势将转入下行。原油短线(1H)走势低位震荡向下，油 价在低位反复穿越均线系统，短线客观趋势呈震荡节奏。波动区间在62.80-64.60之间。早盘油价在区间下沿 ...