·东方汇理：美联储降息预期升温叠加主席人选变动，美元承压走弱 ·ASB银行：新西兰联储降息态度谨慎，除非数据显著走弱否则难再宽松 ·富国银行：消费者信心骤降、失业率攀升，消费情绪显著承压 【机构分析】 ·安永首席经济学家表示，澳大利亚通胀压力加剧，澳储行面临严峻政策挑战，虽年内已三次降息，但 效果尚未完全显现；鉴于下次议息会议在2026年2月，不排除12月紧急加息可能，货币政策或迎重大转 向。 ·三菱日联摩根士丹利证券策略师指出，日本央行正有意在12月加息前充分引导市场预期，避免引发意 外。鉴于首相高市早苗和财务大臣片山皋月均未反对加息，12月行动可能性高于明年1月。 ·Man Group策略师表示，尽管有观点认为日本新政府或压制加息，但日本央行展现强烈货币政策正常化 意愿。美联储12月决议将直接影响日元走势及日本央行决策压力：若美联储按兵不动，日元或续贬，加 剧日本加息紧迫性。 ·10年期美债收益率一个月来首度跌破4%，摩根大通客户调查显示美债净多头头寸升至约15年高位。交 易员预计12月降息25个基点概率已飙升至80%，较数日前的30%大幅上升。鲍威尔及联储高层近期表态 偏鸽，叠加疲软就业数据，促使市场迅 ...

外部市场方面，美元指数小幅走高，原油价格稳定在每桶约58.50美元附近，10 年期美债收益率维持在 4.06%。当前贵金属价格仍由现货与期货共同决定，而12月期货合约因年末流动性集中而成为当前CME 成交最活跃的品种。 技术面上，12月黄金仍处于关键区间。多头正试图向上挑战11月高点4250.00美元，而空头短线关注的 是价格能否跌破4000.00美元关口。目前阻力位集中在4100.00美元和上周高点4134.30美元附近，支撑位 则落在4036.40美元和4018.10美元。迈汇的技术评分为6.5，认为未来两日的宏观数据将决定金价能否完 成方向性突破。 白银方面，尽管多头仍占据短期优势，但上涨动能有所减弱。市场关注其能否向纪录高点54415美元推 进，而下方的主要支撑位在47000美元区域。当前阻力位分别落在50.555美元和51.00美元，支撑位在 49.37美元与49.00美元，技术评分同样为6.5。由于白银波动幅度更大，迈汇提醒投资者需特别留意宏观 数据公布后可能出现的快速行情。 本周一美国午盘时段，黄金与白银价格双双走高，为因节假日而缩短的交易周带来一个较为平稳的开 局。整体市场保持观望情绪，投资者 ...

【资讯导读】 ·特朗普签署AI行政令推动联邦数据驱动创新 ·美国GDP预估发布因政府停摆取消 ·欧盟批准2026年预算：聚焦国防、移民与竞争力 ·欧洲央行在最新《金融稳定评估》中警告，稳定币正分流欧元区零售存款，若遭遇"挤兑"，可能危及 全球金融稳定。报告指出，其实际用途多集中于加密资产交易，而非设计初衷的支付与储值。 【市场资讯】 ·美国经济分析局取消原定10月30日发布的第三季度GDP预估值，原因系联邦政府停摆。备受美联储关 注的PCE价格指数及个人收入与支出报告，现定于当地时间12月5日上午10点发布。 ·美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，加速人工智能发展，要求构建国家级AI平台，整合并开放联邦科学数 据集以促进技术突破。 ·美国商务部长卢特尼克称，欧盟必须修改数字法规，美方才会下调钢铝关税；欧盟则坚决回应，科技 与税收规则不在贸易谈判范畴内。 ·美联储理事沃勒表示，疲软的劳动力市场数据支持12月降息。他警告称，会后密集发布的延迟经济报 告可能使明年1月的政策决定更加复杂。 ·欧盟理事会24日通过2026年财政预算，总额1928亿欧元，支出上限1901亿欧元。预算重点投向国防、 移民管控和经济竞争力，并预留7 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 11 月 23 日 利率价量择时观点整体转为偏空 美债价量周期择时信号：看多 - 基于美国市场 10 年期国债 YTM 数据判断的多周期择时信号为： 长周期向上突破、中周期向下突破、短周期向下突破。综合来看， 当前合计下行突破 2 票、上行突破 1 票，最终信号的综合评分结 果为看多。 国内利率价量多周期择时策略表现 - 自 2024 年底以来，基于 5/10/30 年期国债 YTM 价量趋势的交易策 略年化收益率分别为 2.24%、2.69%、3.25%，最大回撤为 0.75%、 1.01%、1.78%，收益回撤比为 3.8、4.65、3.54，相对业绩基准的 超额收益率为 0.81%、1.39%、2.57%。2008 年以来，各策略逐年 绝对收益和超额收益大于 0 的概率均接近 100%。 风险提示：本报告基于对历史数据的分析，当市场环境变化时，存在失效 风险。 专题报告 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 梁雨辰 S1090523070008 liangyuchen2@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2026 is expected to navigate a landscape characterized by low interest rates and high volatility, with various factors influencing the market dynamics, including economic recovery, monetary policy adjustments, and fiscal measures [1][21]. Interest Rate Bonds - The bond market is anticipated to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" pattern, with limited downward space for interest rates but persistent fluctuations [2][3]. - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a focus on obtaining stable coupon income and increasing exposure to equity assets to enhance overall returns [2]. - Predictions indicate that the ten-year government bond yield may drop to around 1.6% in the first quarter but could rebound to approximately 1.9% later in the year due to economic recovery and inflation expectations [3]. - A bullish steepening of the yield curve is expected, with the ten-year government bond yield potentially declining to a range of 1.2% to 1.5% [4]. - The N-shaped interest rate trend is forecasted, with significant adjustments expected in the first quarter and the second half of the year, while the second quarter may present favorable trading opportunities [5]. Credit Bonds - The credit bond market is expected to exhibit low spreads, with a shift from simple "downward" strategies to more refined approaches focusing on regions, industries, and individual credits [6][8]. - If the wide credit process progresses smoothly, credit risks may ease, leading to a reduction in bond defaults [8]. - The focus should be on mid to long-term credit bonds, particularly those with potential for spread compression, while avoiding low-quality private real estate bonds and high-risk regional bonds [9][11]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with potential rate cuts and innovative tools to support liquidity and the yield curve [12][13]. - The window for rate cuts is anticipated to open between late 2025 and early 2026, with limited pressure on banks' net interest margins due to changing deposit structures [14]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to play a significant role, with a focus on targeted support rather than broad-based expansion [16]. External Environment - The narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential is a key external factor, with expectations that the spread between ten-year U.S. and Chinese bonds will continue to narrow [18]. - The U.S. bond market is projected to experience a flattening yield curve, with ten-year U.S. Treasury yields expected to exceed 2.2% due to persistent inflation and employment recovery [19]. - Attention should be paid to the "local divergence" between China and overseas experiences, particularly regarding the impact of government leverage and inflation on interest rates [20].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | 2025/11/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 较前值变动 收盘价 | | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.42 | -10.66 | DR007 | 1.51 | -1.08 | | | GC001 | 1.63 | -6.50 | GC007 | 1.51 | -5.00 | | नि | | | | | | | | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | | 1.40 | -0.30 | | 1 રેતે | 0.70 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | | | 5年期国债 | | | | | 10年期国债 | 1.81 | 0.40 | 10年期美债 | 4.12 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20251116 11 月非农料为美联储 12 月降息的关键变量 2025 年 11 月 16 日 ◼ 海外政治：美国联邦政府结束停摆，经济数据恢复发布料影响 12 月 FOMC 决议。美东时间 11 月 12 日，美国众议院表决通过了一项临时 拨款法案，为政府机构提供运作资金至 2026 年 1 月 30 日。随后特朗普 于白宫正式签署该法案，标志着为期 43 天的美国史上最长政府停摆正 式结束。一方面，本次政府停摆带来的紧财政与紧流动性效果料给美国 经济带来"先抑后扬"的影响。近期 CBO 的测算数据显示，为期 6 周 的政府停摆将对 25Q4 和 26Q1 美国实际 GDP 带来-1.5%和+2.2%的影响 效果（见图 18）。另一方面，随着联邦政府恢复运作，许多重要的经济 数据将重新恢复发布，其中 11 月 20 日 BLS 将发布 9 月非农就业数据； 11 月 26 日 BEA 将发布 25Q3 美国 GDP 修正值。但根据白宫新闻秘书 莱维特和白宫国家经济委员会主任哈赛特的消息，10 月非农可能只公 布就业岗位的部分数据而无法公布失业率数据，10 月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US government's potential reopening boosted the capital market, increasing expectations of further overseas liquidity release, leading to a stronger performance of stock indices with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly breaking through a new high [7]. - After the cooling of AI and chip sectors since October, the lithium - battery sector took over and led the rally, supporting the strong performance of stock indices [7]. - The current macro - level situation is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, lacking a core driving force. There are disagreements in the market about whether the valuation of technology stocks will further increase and whether the market can shift from a structural to a full - fledged slow - bull market. Short - term market disagreements are expected to be digested through index fluctuations, and new driving factors are needed for further upward movement [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a - 9.93bp change, DR007 at 1.48 with a - 1.22bp change, GC001 at 0.98 with a - 56.50bp change, GC007 at 1.47 with a - 3.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.41 with a 0.26bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.58 with a 1.54bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a 0.46bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.09 with a 2.00bp change [4]. - The central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 92.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 97.2 billion yuan. This week, 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 78.3 billion, 117.5 billion, 65.5 billion, 92.8 billion, and 141.7 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4]. - The central bank's Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report stated that it will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, use various tools to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, improve the monetary policy framework, and strengthen policy implementation and transmission. It also aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices [4]. Stock Index Market - The CSI 300 rose 1.21% to 4702.1, the SSE 50 rose 0.96% to 3073.7, the CSI 500 rose 1.55% to 7355.3, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.39% to 7590.6. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.042 trillion yuan, an increase of 96.9 billion yuan from the previous day [6]. - Most industry sectors rose, with energy metals, batteries, fertilizers, precious metals, power equipment, non - metallic materials, non - ferrous metals, chemical raw materials, chemical products, and small metals leading the gains. Only railway and highway, banking, and power sectors declined [6]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures contracts generally decreased. For example, IF trading volume decreased by 7.3% and open interest by 5.1%, IH trading volume by 2.2% and open interest by 1.2%, IC trading volume by 9.2% and open interest by 7.4%, and IM trading volume by 11.9% and open interest by 5.5% [6]. Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 8.22%, 5.41%, 3.44%, and 3.58% respectively [8]. - IH premium rates for different contracts were 1.58%, 1.60%, 0.90%, and 0.77% respectively [8]. - IC premium rate for the current - month contract was 12.34% [8]. - IM premium rates for different contracts were 14.77%, 14.98%, 13.05%, and 12.76% respectively [8].

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DR001 closed at 1.42 with a -9.02bp change, DR007 at 1.49 with a -2.21bp change, GC001 at 1.54 with a -10.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.50 with a -3.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.58 with no change, and LPR 5 - year stayed at 3.50 with no change [3] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds closed at 1.35 (-1.80bp), 1.52 (-2.00bp), and 1.80 (-1.60bp) respectively, while 10 - year US Treasury bonds closed at 4.09 with a 2.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 1955 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 655 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1300 billion yuan [3] - This week, 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 783 billion, 1175 billion, 655 billion, 928 billion, and 1417 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The central bank's Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report stated that it will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, use various tools to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, improve the monetary policy framework, and strengthen policy implementation and transmission [4] - Promoting a reasonable recovery of prices is an important consideration for monetary policy to keep prices at a reasonable level [4] Group 3: Stock Indexes and Futures - The CSI 300 fell 0.13% to 4645.9, the SSE 50 rose 0.32% to 3044.3, the CSI 500 fell 0.66% to 7243.2, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.72% to 7486.4 [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19450 billion yuan, a decrease of 486 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - Industry sectors showed more declines than gains, with insurance, mining, pharmaceutical commerce, medical devices, and beauty care sectors leading the gains, while photovoltaic equipment, non - metallic materials, wind power equipment, power supply equipment, power grid equipment, and electronic chemicals sectors leading the losses [5] - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different price changes and volume/position changes. For example, IF volume increased by 93 to 120690, and its open interest increased by 3.9% to 273421 [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The macro news was calm, and the stock index continued to fluctuate. The current macro situation is a mix of positives and negatives, lacking a core driving force [6] - There are disagreements in the market regarding the further increase of technology stock valuations and the transition from a structural market to a full - fledged slow - bull market [6] - Short - term market differences are expected to be digested during the stock index's volatile adjustment, and new driving factors such as overseas liquidity release or domestic fundamental improvement will be key for the market to rise [6] Group 5: Futures Contract Premium/Discount - IF showed premiums of 0.79%, 3.80%, 2.76%, and 3.15% for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts respectively [7] - IH had a - 3.33% discount for the current contract and premiums for other contracts [7] - IC and IM contracts generally showed premiums [7]

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury issued $42 billion in 10-year bonds, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.43, indicating stable demand despite a slight decrease from the previous auction [1][2] - The 10-year bond yield closed at 4.0713%, down 4.47 basis points, while the 2-year bond yield fell to 3.5659%, down 2.49 basis points [1] - The Senate passed a temporary funding bill to end the government shutdown, which has delayed the release of key economic data [1] Group 1 - The 10-year bond auction yield was 4.074%, slightly above the pre-auction level of 4.068% but lower than the previous auction's yield of 4.117% [2] - The indirect bid ratio, reflecting foreign demand, was 67.0%, slightly up from 66.8% in the last auction, while the direct bid ratio from domestic investors was 22.6%, down from 24.1% [2] - Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that the department is prepared to adjust bond issuance based on investor demand to avoid market disruption [2] Group 2 - The Treasury is closely monitoring potential long-term changes in demand for specific U.S. government bonds and will adjust issuance accordingly [2] - The stablecoin market is expected to grow tenfold over the next decade, potentially increasing demand for short-term bonds [2]