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招商公路(001965):受道路分流及差异化收费政策影响,业绩略低于预期
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 was slightly below expectations, with total revenue of 5.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.504 billion yuan, down 7.56% year-on-year [5]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to road diversion and differentiated toll policies, which have put pressure on the investment and operation segment [5]. - The company benefits from a decrease in financial expenses due to interest rate cuts and proactive adjustments to its debt structure, resulting in a 15.79% year-on-year decrease in financial expenses to 745 million yuan in H1 2025 [5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025E-2027E at 6.645 billion, 6.758 billion, and 7.255 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 11, and 10 [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 14.841 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.8% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 6.645 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 24.8% [4]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to be 35.9% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.3% [4]. - The company’s total operating revenue for 2024 is estimated at 12.711 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.322 billion yuan [7].