Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 was slightly below expectations, with total revenue of 5.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.504 billion yuan, down 7.56% year-on-year [5]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to road diversion and differentiated toll policies, which have put pressure on the investment and operation segment [5]. - The company benefits from a decrease in financial expenses due to interest rate cuts and proactive adjustments to its debt structure, resulting in a 15.79% year-on-year decrease in financial expenses to 745 million yuan in H1 2025 [5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025E-2027E at 6.645 billion, 6.758 billion, and 7.255 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 11, and 10 [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 14.841 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.8% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 6.645 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 24.8% [4]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to be 35.9% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.3% [4]. - The company’s total operating revenue for 2024 is estimated at 12.711 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.322 billion yuan [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 11.7% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, driven by toll and construction service income, despite a significant decline in revenue for the second quarter of 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Overview - In 1H2025, the company achieved an operating income of 3.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 960 million yuan, up 4.0% [1]. - In 2Q2024, the company recorded an operating income of 920 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 410 million yuan, an increase of 2.4% [1]. Group 2: Operational Analysis - The revenue growth in 1H2025 was primarily due to toll income and construction service income, with toll income reaching 2.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [2]. - The toll income from the Xuan-Guang Expressway was 220 million yuan, a significant increase of 98.7%, attributed to the reopening of the highway after renovations [2]. - The core route, the An-Ning Expressway, generated toll income of 740 million yuan, up 8.7%, benefiting from higher traffic during the Spring Festival [2]. - Construction period revenue costs were 1.22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [2]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Analysis - The gross profit margin for 1H2025 was 37.2%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the commencement of depreciation for the Xuan-Guang Expressway [3]. - The gross profit margin for the Xuan-Guang Expressway was 20.6%, down 16.7 percentage points [3]. - The company's expense ratio was 4.79%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, with financial expenses accounting for 2.53%, up 1.56 percentage points [3]. - The fair value change profit was 58.51 million yuan, a significant increase of 6054.7% year-on-year, primarily due to the recognition of fair value changes from the CICC Anhui Expressway REIT [3]. - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 25.7%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - The company completed the acquisition of 100% equity in Fuzhou Expressway and Sihu Expressway for 4.77 billion yuan, contributing a net profit of 85.05 million yuan and 33.22 million yuan, respectively [4]. - The company participated in a private placement of Shen Expressway, investing 500 million yuan, and won the concession rights for the Bo-Dan Expressway, investing 35 million yuan to expand its asset base [4]. - Since April, Anhui Province has implemented differentiated toll policies, reducing discounts for certain vehicles, which is expected to positively impact the company's profitability [4]. Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecast for 2025-2027 at 1.89 billion yuan, 1.99 billion yuan, and 2.10 billion yuan, respectively, and continues to hold a "buy" rating [5].

Summary of Wantuo Expressway Conference Call Company Overview - Wantuo Expressway operates key routes including He-Ning, Gao-Jie, and Xuan-Guang highways, which contribute significantly to revenue and profit. In 2024, He-Ning is expected to account for 39% of gross profit, Gao-Jie for 25%, and the three main routes together will exceed 75% of total profit [2][12][10]. Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue Growth**: The company anticipates significant growth in toll revenue with the opening of Xuan-Hang highway, which is expected to boost income substantially [2]. - **Differentiated Pricing Policy**: The implementation of a differentiated pricing policy in Anhui province is projected to enhance profitability by reducing truck discount amounts by approximately 110 million [2][24]. - **Acquisition Impact**: The planned acquisition of assets (Fuzhou and Suxu highways) is expected to contribute net profits of 227 million and 242 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][23]. - **High Transport Revenue**: Wantuo Expressway's revenue per kilometer is leading in the industry, reaching 6.29 million yuan/km in 2024, ranking third [2][7]. - **High Truck Proportion**: The company has a high proportion of truck traffic, with some routes exceeding 70%, indicating a strong correlation with macroeconomic conditions and greater elasticity during economic recovery [2][5]. - **Infrastructure Expansion**: The completion of highway expansions has significantly improved profitability, with He-Ning highway traffic increasing by 41% and toll revenue by 19% post-expansion [2][18]. - **Depreciation Method**: The company uses the straight-line depreciation method, resulting in higher initial depreciation costs but lower costs in later years, which may enhance asset value and investment returns if toll collection periods are extended [2][14][21]. Financial Performance - **2024 Projections**: Revenue is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year, although vehicle toll revenue may decline by 5% due to macroeconomic factors [4][15]. Net profit is projected to increase by 1% due to reduced financial expenses [4][16]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The company’s ROE is 13%, with a low debt-to-asset ratio of 39%, indicating potential for further growth through increased leverage [4][17]. - **Dividend Policy**: The dividend payout ratio has been increased to 60%, with a commitment to maintain this level through 2027, positioning the company favorably in terms of shareholder returns [4][25]. Risks and Considerations - **Market Risks**: Wantuo Expressway faces potential risks from traffic diversion and changes in highway policies, which require ongoing monitoring to ensure stable growth [4][26]. Additional Insights - **Strategic Location**: Anhui province serves as a crucial transportation hub connecting the Yangtze River Delta with central provinces, supporting stable freight demand due to its industrial structure [2][9]. - **Future Developments**: The company plans to enhance its profit sources through acquisitions and infrastructure improvements, with significant expected contributions from newly acquired assets [2][22]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Wantuo Expressway's strategic advantages, financial outlook, and potential risks.