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全球资本涌向东南亚债券:押注央行降息,替代美债成新避风港
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-12 01:58
Group 1 - Southeast Asian sovereign bond yields are at historical lows, attracting global capital as investors anticipate further monetary easing from major central banks [1][4] - The average yield premium of ten-year government bonds in Southeast Asia compared to U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to the lowest level since 2011, driven by increased risk aversion towards U.S. assets [1][4] - Foreign ownership of Southeast Asian bonds remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels, indicating substantial potential for incremental capital inflows [4][5] Group 2 - The weakening U.S. dollar trend supports the Southeast Asian bond market, allowing central banks in countries like Malaysia and Thailand to implement rate cuts without triggering capital outflows [4] - Recent capital flows show significant foreign investment in Malaysian bonds, with nearly $5 billion inflow, as expectations rise for the central bank to initiate rate cuts [4] - Singapore dollar bonds are increasingly viewed as a safe alternative to U.S. Treasuries, especially amid concerns over U.S. debt levels and fiscal deficits [4][5] Group 3 - The yield curve indicates that ten-year government bond yields in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia are hovering near their lowest points since 2021, with predictions of further declines by year-end [4] - The migration of capital towards Southeast Asia is attributed to the region's policy easing capabilities and valuation advantages, positioning it as a "new safe haven" in the capital markets [5]