美国国债光环褪色之际，东南亚债券市场正上演资本盛宴。即便收益率跌至历史低位，投资者仍蜂拥而 至，一场由"抛售美元资产"浪潮和区域降息预期驱动的资金迁徙正在加速。 据彭博最新报道，数据显示，东南亚国家10年期债券相对于美债的平均收益率已降至2011年有记录以来 的最低点。然而，本季度外资对该地区债券的需求异常强劲，马来西亚、泰国和印尼均录得显著资金流 入。这场资本流动的背后，是投资者对美国资产担忧的加剧以及对东南亚央行进一步放松货币政策的押 注。 投资者正急切地将资金转向东南亚主权债券。马来西亚本季度吸引了近50亿美元外资流入，因市场普遍 预期该国央行——东南亚最后一个维持利率不变的主要央行——可能在7月启动降息。 投资者似乎宁愿接受更低的回报，也要逃离美国资产。 星展银行驻新加坡固定收益策略师Eugene Leow分析称："随着投资者将资金从美元资产中重新配置出 来，东南亚债券将继续受益。该地区的增长和通胀前景仍需要央行提供更多政策支持。" 他同时指出，外国投资者对东南亚债券的持有比例仍低于疫情前水平，增长空间显著。 美元前景恶化为东南亚债券提供了另一股助推力。本地货币走强降低了资本外流风险，为区域内央行降 ...

Group 1 - Southeast Asian sovereign bond yields are at historical lows, attracting global capital as investors anticipate further monetary easing from major central banks [1][4] - The average yield premium of ten-year government bonds in Southeast Asia compared to U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to the lowest level since 2011, driven by increased risk aversion towards U.S. assets [1][4] - Foreign ownership of Southeast Asian bonds remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels, indicating substantial potential for incremental capital inflows [4][5] Group 2 - The weakening U.S. dollar trend supports the Southeast Asian bond market, allowing central banks in countries like Malaysia and Thailand to implement rate cuts without triggering capital outflows [4] - Recent capital flows show significant foreign investment in Malaysian bonds, with nearly $5 billion inflow, as expectations rise for the central bank to initiate rate cuts [4] - Singapore dollar bonds are increasingly viewed as a safe alternative to U.S. Treasuries, especially amid concerns over U.S. debt levels and fiscal deficits [4][5] Group 3 - The yield curve indicates that ten-year government bond yields in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia are hovering near their lowest points since 2021, with predictions of further declines by year-end [4] - The migration of capital towards Southeast Asia is attributed to the region's policy easing capabilities and valuation advantages, positioning it as a "new safe haven" in the capital markets [5]