1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has shown a repair trend recently, with different bond varieties performing differently. It is a delayed allocation market rather than a bear market. The 10 - year and shorter - term bonds and secondary - tier and perpetual bonds (Er Yong) have performed well, while the ultra - long - term bonds have performed poorly. The bond market has initially regained its "safe - haven asset" attribute, with low volatility compared to other assets. The driving forces for the bond market repair come from institutional behavior and liability behavior. Long - term constraints such as supply - demand issues in the global bond market still exist. The 10 - year Treasury yield may further decline to 1.75%, and the short - term lower limit of the 30 - year Treasury yield may be around 2.15%, with about 10BP of room for the 30 - year bond [3][6][33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Performance - Since the beginning of the year, the bond market has been in a repair trend, with different varieties showing divergence. Only ultra - long - term bonds have performed poorly. The 10 - year and shorter - term Treasury bonds and medium - short - term credit bonds have been stable, and Er Yong bonds have performed excellently. The 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds, and 3 - year and 5 - year AA + bank perpetual bonds have declined by 5.8BP, 9.0BP, 9.8BP, and 9.6BP respectively compared to the end of last year. The 30 - year Treasury bond has risen by 2BP compared to the end of last year, with a maximum increase of 7BP [3][6]. - After the significant adjustment in December last year and at the beginning of this year, many investors in 30 - year Treasury bonds have reduced their participation, resulting in a passive widening of the term spread and a certain decline in liquidity [8]. 3.2 Impact of Multi - asset Market Volatility on the Bond Market - The multi - asset market has high volatility, but its impact on the bond market is relatively small. Whether it is the "stagflation" trading in the commodity market or the "risk - preference" trading in the technology direction of the equity market, it has not caused a significant decline in the bond market. When these trades decline after being pushed up by leveraged funds, the bond market is relatively insensitive and does not show a significant "stock - weak, bond - strong" trend as in the previous year [3][11]. - The volatility of both cash bonds and Treasury bond futures is decreasing, especially compared to other assets. As of February 3, 2026, the volatility of the CSI 1000 futures is at the 90% quantile in the past year, the volatility of the Wind commodity composite index is at the 100% quantile in the past year, while the volatility of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures has been continuously decreasing this year and is currently at the 10% quantile in the past year. The bond market has initially regained its "safe - haven asset" attribute [15]. 3.3 Driving Forces for Bond Market Repair 3.3.1 Institutional Behavior - "Short - sellers are tired". The short - selling volume is large, and the borrowing concentration has increased significantly. From the borrowing concentration of the 30 - year main bond and the trading behavior of the CTD, although the liability side of securities firms' proprietary trading has not changed since September last year, recently, securities firms may face pressure to close their short positions due to high borrowing costs [19]. - There has been an allocation market since the beginning of the year. Due to the long - term bull market in the past, the allocation market from December to January has been advanced to November. After the redemption behavior at the end of last year, the market lost confidence in the allocation market, but allocation institutions have been buying linearly. This can be seen from the long - term bond purchases by large banks and the local bond purchases by insurance companies [22]. 3.3.2 Liability Behavior - From the insurance perspective, the large - scale issuance of dividend - paying insurance policies. Although the allocation of ultra - long - term bonds is changing, bonds with a term of less than 10 years and Er Yong bonds are still important for dividend - paying insurance allocation, which supports the growth of fixed - income plus products. In January, insurance companies' net purchases of other types of bonds (including Er Yong bonds) reached 494 million yuan, compared with only 66 million yuan in January last year [24]. - From the bank perspective, the constraint of the EVE indicator has become less urgent. From the bill interest rate, the strong project reserves expected at the end of December may be average in operation [27]. 3.4 Long - term Constraints - The global bond market may face supply - demand issues, and there is a long - term fundamental logic for the widening of the term spread. The Japanese bond market has supply problems, the US bond market has demand problems, and the Chinese bond market has both supply and demand problems. However, since these issues have been priced in for two months, they are more like "gray rhinos" rather than "black swans" [29][30]. 3.5 Appropriate Term Spread - If the market returns to the period before the unilateral bull market of bonds, the central value of the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds in China was around 55bp before 2023. Considering the increase in the liquidity of 30 - year bonds after the listing of TL, although it has decreased, it is still higher than before 2023, so the central value of the spread may be around 50BP [34]. - If the CPI returns to the 1% central level, since the term premium of ultra - long - term bonds implies inflation expectations, when the CPI rises to around 1% this year, similar to the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022, the spread of ultra - long - term bonds is also around 55BP [34].